February 2024

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But those places are always hot lol-- in 1993 Newark had 9 days of 100 degrees or higher (including 5 days in a row!)-- has that ever been matched?

I think we can finally call it  a new climate when the coast gets temperatures every year over 100 degrees-- do you think we'll have that by 2050? I want JFK to get at least one high every year over 100 degrees.

 

 

What a joke - why do they allow obviously bogus readings to stay in the record books? I'm guessing that was the HO-83? Should at least have an asterisk designating its questionable nature.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But those places are always hot lol-- in 1993 Newark had 9 days of 100 degrees or higher (including 5 days in a row!)-- has that ever been matched?

I think we can finally call it  a new climate when the coast gets temperatures every year over 100 degrees-- do you think we'll have that by 2050? I want JFK to get at least one high every year over 100 degrees.

 

 

I think if we measured temperatures the same way we used to, we would have 100F+ temperatures every summer. They had to shut down the original Baltimore station because it was so hot. The same station that is the official records from Baltimore before BWI opened. Somehow the deniers argue this shows the warming is fake. Obviously, it actually shows how ridiculous the warming has been when properly observed temperatures today are now exceeding the past ones taken in an absurdly warmed local microclimate on a rooftop. What level of cognitive dissonance is that?

Source: How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore's Rooftop USHCN Station – Watts Up With That?

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What a joke - why do they allow obviously bogus readings to stay in the record books? I'm guessing that was the HO-83? Should at least have an asterisk designating its questionable nature.

Do you remember the summer of 1993, it was our hottest summer on record up to that point.  We all had numerous days above 100+, JFK had 2 in a row from what I remember, NYC had 3 in a row and EWR had 5 in a row.  The 90s were the decade that had our most 90 degree days and also our most 100 degree days-- the summers of 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1999 were all extremely hot.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

@MJO812 Pretty sure JetBlue has direct flights to Reno. 

They're all doing direct flights for the total solar eclipse too, I've read that millions of people will be traveling to see it.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very unusual. Many comments on the rare location of the dryline to our West. We could actually see dewpoints in the single digits on Thursday behind the front. 
 

 

 

why are we getting this cold blast when it was supposed to be nice and mild from here on out?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  74 (1997)
NYC: 72 (1997)
LGA: 73 (1997)


Lows:

EWR: 7 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1900)
LGA: 9 (1950)

 

Historical:

 

1717 - What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten day period a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one story homes. (David Ludlum)

1969 - A record snowstorm in Maine came to an end. Two to four feet of snow buried southern and central Maine, with a state record of 57 inches reported at West Forks. Drifts covered many single story homes, and the weight of the snow collapsed many roofs. Two to four feet of snow also buried northeastern Vermont and northeastern Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, Mount Washington NH reported 97.8 inches of snow, a record storm total for New England. (24th-28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1986: It was 99 degrees in Palm Springs, California, the highest temperature on record for February. Palm Springs also reached 99 degrees on February 26, 1986.

1987 - A storm spread heavy snow into the Central High Plains Region, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. Snowfall totals in western Nebraska ranged up to 19 inches at Sydney. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced baseball size hail at Stringtown and Atoka. A storm in the eastern U.S. produced heavy rain over the Carolinas and heavy snow in the southern Appalachians and piedmont region. Five inches of rain left four feet of water in the streets of Greenville SC. Snowfall totals in southwestern Virginia ranged up to 20 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms along a cold front produced heavy rain in southern California, with up to 2.52 inches reported in Ventura County. Strong winds accompanying the rain gusted to 55 mph in the Tehachapi Mountains. Rapid City SD established a February record with an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Rain and snow prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Up to eight inches of snow blanketed north central Tennessee, and snowfall totals in western North Carolina ranged up to 14 inches at Mount Mitchell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in southeastern Colorado, with 12 inches reported at Lamar. The same storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains, with wind gusts to 93 mph reported at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Low pressure brought high winds to the Prince William Sound area of Alaska. Big River Lakes reported wind gusts to 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A weak EF0 tornado causes no damage as it moved across California's southern San Joaquin Valley. However it is the only tornado reported in the United States during the month. According to the Storm Prediction Center only five months since 1950 have lacked a tornado report. The Weather Doctor

wow mid 70s on this date in 1997 and then the April Fools Day snowstorm more than a month later lol

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you remember the summer of 1993, it was our hottest summer on record up to that point.  We all had numerous days above 100+, JFK had 2 in a row from what I remember, NYC had 3 in a row and EWR had 5 in a row.  The 90s were the decade that had our most 90 degree days and also our most 100 degree days-- the summers of 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1999 were all extremely hot.

Not as hot as today. Take those readings with a grain of salt [except for 1999]. Maximum temperatures at first order stations averaged about 0.5C too warm, and from 1 to as much as 3C on sunny days with light winds - i.e., typical summertime weather.

The HO-83 Hygro- thermometer « Climate Audit

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I rather have snow and cold. Brrr.

Baseball season will start in less than a month

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Not as hot as today. Take those readings with a grain of salt [except for 1999]. Maximum temperatures at first order stations averaged about 0.5C too warm, and from 1 to as much as 3C on sunny days with light winds - i.e., typical summertime weather.

The HO-83 Hygro- thermometer « Climate Audit

1993 was eventually superseded by 2010 which became our new hottest summer on record, but we haven't had as many 90 degree days since then-- although we did have a peak heat hotter in 2011.  I don't see that being broken any time soon because we simply get too much rain in the summer now to match that kind of heat.  We need a drought here to get over 100.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 was eventually superseded by 2010 which became our new hottest summer on record, but we haven't had as many 90 degree days since then-- although we did have a peak heat hotter in 2011.  I don't see that being broken any time soon because we simply get too much rain in the summer now to match that kind of heat.  We need a drought here to get over 100.

 

Yeah, the bias on the HO-83 was primarily daytime only. I think there were some hot summers in that era, no doubt. But the first order station data for years like 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994 & 1995 is probably a couple degrees too high for daily maxima, relative to the current readings with the HO-1088 ASOS hygrothermometer [which was reconfigured to address the issues with the HO-83].

I mean it's probably too warm even in the cold, volcanic summer of 1992. I'm just pointing out the multiple warmer years from that era.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 was eventually superseded by 2010 which became our new hottest summer on record, but we haven't had as many 90 degree days since then-- although we did have a peak heat hotter in 2011.  I don't see that being broken any time soon because we simply get too much rain in the summer now to match that kind of heat.  We need a drought here to get over 100.

 

The summer of 2022 came close in NJ. 
 

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2022 came close in NJ. 
 

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4

nice..... how close were 2010 and 2011 to this? I think they had a few 100 degree days too, I know JFK had 3 in 2010 and 2 in 2011

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, the bias on the HO-83 was primarily daytime only. I think there were some hot summers in that era, no doubt. But the first order station data for years like 1987, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1994 & 1995 is probably a couple degrees too high for daily maxima, relative to the current readings with the HO-1088 ASOS hygrothermometer [which was reconfigured to address the issues with the HO-83].

I mean it's probably too warm even in the cold, volcanic summer of 1992. I'm just pointing out the multiple warmer years from that era.

It could be, but I've also noticed the temperatures rise a lot more quickly when there's a drought.  The last notable drought I remember was in 2002, which was a very hot summer, starting with that big three day heatwave in April, the grass was yellow to brown all summer.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It could be, but I've also noticed the temperatures rise a lot more quickly when there's a drought.  The last notable drought I remember was in 2002, which was a very hot summer, starting with that big three day heatwave in April, the grass was yellow to brown all summer.

 

Maybe, I'm skeptical of some of those readings. If you look at Bradford, in rural Pennsylvania, surrounded by the Allegheny National Forest [so no UHI impacts], pretty much every recent summer is the hottest on record. So I don't know why there would be such a disconnect between the rural and heavily populated parts of the northeast. Wouldn't the UHI effect argue for the exact opposite impact? It's almost like the greenhouse effect ameliorates some of the UHI effect by making radiational cooling less effective in more remote areas.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Maybe, I'm skeptical of some of those readings. If you look at Bradford, in rural Pennsylvania, surrounded by the Allegheny National Forest [so no UHI impacts], pretty much every recent summer is the hottest on record. So I don't know why there would be such a disconnect between the rural and heavily populated parts of the northeast. Wouldn't the UHI effect argue for the exact opposite impact? It's almost like the greenhouse effect ameliorates some of the UHI effect by making radiational cooling less effective in more remote areas.

 

Oh you're going by average temperature, which includes the minimum.  For summer heat, I go by number of 90 degree days and number of 100 degree days, not average temperatures.

When the min is high it means it's usually either cloudy or very humid or both and when it's more humid during the day and of course when it's cloudy, the temperature rises more slowly.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 63 ahead of the clouds. Rain showers working their way NE into NJ.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Maybe, I'm skeptical of some of those readings. If you look at Bradford, in rural Pennsylvania, surrounded by the Allegheny National Forest [so no UHI impacts], pretty much every recent summer is the hottest on record. So I don't know why there would be such a disconnect between the rural and heavily populated parts of the northeast. Wouldn't the UHI effect argue for the exact opposite impact? It's almost like the greenhouse effect ameliorates some of the UHI effect by making radiational cooling less effective in more remote areas.

 

also that's really far inland, where we live near the coast we've trended towards summers with a strong coastal breeze off the ocean which has kept us from having as many 90 and 100 degree days as we did back then.

 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

nice..... how close were 2010 and 2011 to this? I think they had a few 100 degree days too, I know JFK had 3 in 2010 and 2 in 2011

I believe the old Mineola COOP holds the record for Long Island with 6 days reaching 100° in 2010. That’s a great spot for compressional heating along the sea breeze front. We would probably need a severe drought from the Midwest to East Coast to see 10 days reaching 100 around the region. NJ would probably have the best chance. As it’s been tough to sustain offshore flow near the coast with the big highs parking to the east of New England instead of to our SW. Plus extended droughts have been tough to come by in the much wetter recent era.

 

 for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	4
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	4
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	3
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3
CT	DANBURY	COOP	3

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	106
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe the old Mineola COOP holds the record for Long Island with 6 days reaching 100° in 2010. That’s a great spot for compressional heating along the sea breeze front. We would probably need a severe drought from the Midwest to East Coast to see 10 days reaching 100 around the region. NJ would probably have the best chance. As it’s been tough to sustain offshore flow near the coast with the big highs parking to the east of New England instead of to our SW. 

 

 for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	4
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	4
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	3
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3
CT	DANBURY	COOP	3

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	106
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106

wow thanks this is great info, Mineola was as hot as Newark at peak heat in 2011 and had just as many 100 degree days in 2010.... Chris, how many 90 degree days did Mineola have in 2010 and is it their all time record?  How far back does the data go there, was 1993 their previous hottest summer (number of 90 and 100 degree days) before 2010?

And do you think the position of the Bermuda High is cyclical and we'll eventually go back to those kinds of summers again?

[psv88]

57 today. Spring is here

[uofmiami]

58 for the high at both my stations

[Cfa]

Topped out at 59. Highest temp of the year so far.

[Snowlover11]

56 for a high.

[IrishRob17]

After a low of 28, high of 61, first 60s since 11/17/23

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow thanks this is great info, Mineola was as hot as Newark at peak heat in 2011 and had just as many 100 degree days in 2010.... Chris, how many 90 degree days did Mineola have in 2010 and is it their all time record?  How far back does the data go there, was 1993 their previous hottest summer (number of 90 and 100 degree days) before 2010?

And do you think the position of the Bermuda High is cyclical and we'll eventually go back to those kinds of summers again?

Mineola had 52 days reach 90° in 2010.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	59
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	54
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	52
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	51
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	50
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	48
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	46
NY	BRONX	COOP	45
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	41
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	40
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	37
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	35
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	34
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	33
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	32
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	31

[Volcanic Winter]

@bluewave, seriously man - thank you for everything that you do here. You’re an absolute data guru and what you post is so fascinating, also the way you contextualize things. I’ve learned so much from you. 
 

@donsutherland1too! You guys rock!

[donsutherland1]

Monthly high temperature records were demolished in the Great Lakes region today. Monthly record temperatures included:

Detroit: 73°(old monthly record: 70°)
Flint: 74° (old monthly record: 68°)
Green Bay: 70° (old monthly record: 65°)
Lansing: 73° (old monthly record: 69°)
Madison: 70° (old monthly record: 68°)
Milwaukee: 74° (old monthly record: 71°)
Oshkosh: 73° (old monthly record: 67°)
Rockford: 78° (old monthly record: 73°, which was set just yesterday)
Saginaw: 74° (old monthly record: 67°)
Wausau: 68° (old monthly record: 59°)

St. Louis also set a monthly record with a high of 86°. Daily records were set in such cities as Albany (66°), Buffalo (68°), Burlington (65°), and Rochester (73°, which tied the monthly record).

After a very mild day tomorrow, colder air will briefly push into the region to conclude February and start March. However, the cold won't last.

Despite a cool start, March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +12.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.302 today.

On February 25 the MJO was not available. The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.128 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.9° (4.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.4°-40.6°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Winters 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 will become the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

[Intensewind002]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It could be, but I've also noticed the temperatures rise a lot more quickly when there's a drought.  The last notable drought I remember was in 2002, which was a very hot summer, starting with that big three day heatwave in April, the grass was yellow to brown all summer.

 

Drought was pretty severe in 2022, at least for LI and SE New England, the trees were literally turning brown in August. Though that summer was extremely humid if I remember correctly so we didn’t have any triple digit heat along the coast

[jm1220]

Last bits of snow are about gone in my backyard. Only dirt mall piles left. Until next non-winter! 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh you're going by average temperature, which includes the minimum.  For summer heat, I go by number of 90 degree days and number of 100 degree days, not average temperatures.

When the min is high it means it's usually either cloudy or very humid or both and when it's more humid during the day and of course when it's cloudy, the temperature rises more slowly.

 

Mean temperature is the superior measure IMO. Number of 90 and 100 degree days can be influenced by drought. They claim July 1936 is hottest month on record in U.S., although I'm a little skeptical of that. It doesn't seem very hot compared to recent Julys in the Great Lakes or Northeast. In fact, outside of a 7-day period, the other 24 days at most locations would be bona fide summer of yesteryear territory.

But even in Des Moines, where it's hottest on record. If you look at the humidity levels that summer [lowest on record], the heat indices would have been around the air temperature or lower most days. So a lot of those days - 106F, 108F - you have a 103F or 105F heat index. Yet Des Moines gets dewpoints in the upper 70s and 80s every year now, with heat indices into the 110s [even 120F]. So I would argue the combination of heat and humidity that we regularly see today is more deadly than even the worst heat waves of the Dust Bowl. Most of the country would be uninhabitable today without AC. This isn't reflected in the data, particularly if you only looked at the temperatures.