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February 2024


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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and the 20 inch line made it all the way into the city, it wasn't confined to inland areas.  Even Brooklyn got around 20 inches.

Central Park had 21". Long Beach had about 9-10" after fighting rain the first half of the event. Part 2 was wicked with the heavy plastering snow and wind. That period through the 3/2010 Noreaster that knocked hundreds of trees down with hurricane force winds was crazy. That was windier than Irene. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s for sure. Another case of the warm minimums driving the departures. Pretty wild to see Upstate NY with low temperature departures for the whole winter in the +7 +11 range above the much warmer 91-20 climate normals. 
 

A1885654-6F8A-42B3-98CB-A635A8B75B59.thumb.jpeg.30e9548260a1e9f3b1810a26d84b2c9a.jpeg

9DFC6343-8A28-4091-8C1D-F197DBA032C9.thumb.jpeg.d48802951045997337f60b04962910cd.jpeg

The NE warming is alarming and completely off any chart or estimate possible. Unless something changes in this trend, winter as we know it in Adirondacks is changed. It will be non existent here.

 

No climatologist had this depth of warming in any analysis. 

This seems to be a radical regional effect of Indian/Pacific Ocean warming. Someone could write a whole thesis on why this is happening and where it is going

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1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

The NE warming is alarming and completely off any chart or estimate possible. Unless something changes in this trend, winter as we know it in Adirondacks is changed. It will be non existent here.

 

No climatologist had this depth of warming in any analysis. 

This seems to be a radical regional effect of Indian/Pacific Ocean warming. Someone could write a whole thesis on why this is happening and where it is going

It has been a decade since we’ve had a cold winter. Feels like ancient history. Nina, Nino, doesnt matter. The super nino in 2016 may have changed the climate for good

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36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The NE warming is alarming and completely off any chart or estimate possible. Unless something changes in this trend, winter as we know it in Adirondacks is changed. It will be non existent here.

 

No climatologist had this depth of warming in any analysis. 

This seems to be a radical regional effect of Indian/Pacific Ocean warming. Someone could write a whole thesis on why this is happening and where it is going

A reading from the book of Revelations. 

The end of days are near.  Repent. 

:D

 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

It has been a decade since we’ve had a cold winter. Feels like ancient history. Nina, Nino, doesnt matter. The super nino in 2016 may have changed the climate for good

Not sure if I ever heard that about the 2016 el nino.  Is that possible that a previous "system" can have that kind of impact?

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Each new El Niño boosts the temperatures to a higher baseline. The 09-10 El Niño marked the beginning of a much warmer summer pattern which continues to this day. The 15-16 El Niño coincided with a shift to much warmer winters. The winter warming shift was of a higher magnitude than we have seen relative to the previous means than the summers. Now the global temperature jump with the 23-24 El Niño was even higher than the 15-16 super El Niño even though it wasn’t as strong. So it will be interesting to see what happens to our temperatures and weather patterns in coming years at this even higher temperature baseline. 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Each new El Niño boosts the temperatures to a higher baseline. The 09-10 El Niño marked the beginning of a much warmer summer pattern which continues to this day. The 15-16 El Niño coincided with a shift to much warmer winters. The winter warming shift was of a higher magnitude than we have seen relative to the previous means than the summers. Now the global temperature jump with the 23-24 El Niño was even higher than the 15-16 super El Niño even though it wasn’t as strong. So it will be interesting to see what happens to our temperatures in coming years at this even higher temperature baseline. 

ewr will hit 110 whenever we get a classic ridge bridge pattern

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Each new El Niño boosts the temperatures to a higher baseline. The 09-10 El Niño marked the beginning of a much warmer summer pattern which continues to this day. The 15-16 El Niño coincided with a shift to much warmer winters. The winter warming shift was of a higher magnitude than we have seen relative to the previous means than the summers. Now the global temperature jump with the 23-24 El Niño was even higher than the 15-16 super El Niño even though it wasn’t as strong. So it will be interesting to see what happens to our temperatures and weather patterns in coming years at this even higher temperature baseline. 

It is impressive how relentless this non winter has been. 

The fact that the first 10 days of March are going to be in the 50s and 60s after this winter warmth is simply astounding

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Each new El Niño boosts the temperatures to a higher baseline. The 09-10 El Niño marked the beginning of a much warmer summer pattern which continues to this day. The 15-16 El Niño coincided with a shift to much warmer winters. The winter warming shift was of a higher magnitude than we have seen relative to the previous means than the summers. Now the global temperature jump with the 23-24 El Niño was even higher than the 15-16 super El Niño even though it wasn’t as strong. So it will be interesting to see what happens to our temperatures and weather patterns in coming years at this even higher temperature baseline. 

Is this "what came first, the chicken or the egg?"  I would thing the increase in temperatures is driving the el Nino to become warmer each year.  The El nino just distributes (or concentrates) the wealth?  Because if the El Nino is actually causing the increase in warmth and not as much the greenhouse gases, do we have to re-assess?

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Milder air will overspread the region tomorrow. Afterward, temperatures will remain generally above normal through the remainder of February. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

March will likely begin with generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +2.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.071 today.

On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.383 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.343 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.9° (4.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.4°-40.6°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Winters 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 will become the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

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2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Is this "what came first, the chicken or the egg?"  I would thing the increase in temperatures is driving the el Nino to become warmer each year.  The El nino just distributes (or concentrates) the wealth?  Because if the El Nino is actually causing the increase in warmth and not as much the greenhouse gases, do we have to re-assess?

Yeah, the El Niño releases the excess heat building up in the oceans as the climate warms. So the El Niño itself isn’t causing the warming. If we had a stable climate like in the late 1800s, the global temperatures would quickly drop in few years like after the super El Niño like in 1877-1878. But as the climate continues to warm, each El Niño year sees a new annual jump. So it’s mostly a modulator of which years set new global temperature records between the neutral or La Nina years. I guess we have been lucky that the pace of the summer warming since 2010 hasn’t been as high as the winter warming since 2015.


885C7F93-EF3D-4441-8B66-3A77FE117092.png.c92271f6dc1be6cd1303656d255c3b36.png

F3A6FD02-7943-4FA6-920C-6C7C03C2B40F.png.903277d46e854af3d1ccc598f136b4d6.png

 

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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the El Niño releases the excess heat building up in the oceans as the climate warms. So the El Niño itself isn’t causing the warming. If we had a stable climate like in the late 1800s, the global temperatures would quickly drop in few years like after the super El Niño like in 1877-1878. But as the climate continues to warm, each El Niño year sees a new annual jump. So it’s mostly a modulator of which years set new global temperature records between the neutral or La Nina years. I guess we have been lucky that the pace of the summer warming since 2010 hasn’t been as high as the winter warming since 2015.


885C7F93-EF3D-4441-8B66-3A77FE117092.png.c92271f6dc1be6cd1303656d255c3b36.png

F3A6FD02-7943-4FA6-920C-6C7C03C2B40F.png.903277d46e854af3d1ccc598f136b4d6.png

 

That luck's going to run out one day-summers. The South largely had its hottest summer on record last year. One summer that ridge will extend north and we'll get a westerly downslope major heat wave again. We've been lucky in a sense that the Bermuda High extends so much further north now that it drives southerly winds not westerly-increasing the humidity but not really the high temps. But that also guides hurricanes up the coast and not recurve out to sea. 

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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Central Park had 21". Long Beach had about 9-10" after fighting rain the first half of the event. Part 2 was wicked with the heavy plastering snow and wind. That period through the 3/2010 Noreaster that knocked hundreds of trees down with hurricane force winds was crazy. That was windier than Irene. 

I remember that-- I wondered how we had a raging blizzard on southerly winds that night....how does that happen lol

JFK had 10" of snow after 1" of rain, which has never happened before.

The sides of our houses were caked in snow the next morning.

Why did it take us so long to changeover to snow?

 

 

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

That luck's going to run out one day-summers. The South largely had its hottest summer on record last year. One summer that ridge will extend north and we'll get a westerly downslope major heat wave again. We've been lucky in a sense that the Bermuda High extends so much further north now that it drives southerly winds not westerly-increasing the humidity but not really the high temps. But that also guides hurricanes up the coast and not recurve out to sea. 

but those westerly heat bursts are really good because they give us lower humidity, therefore less allergies (at least for me-- 2010 had an amazing summer).

we had consistently hotter summers in the 50s, 90s and the early part of the 10s than what we do now (I go by number of 90 degree days).

somehow during the 50s we had both hotter summers and TCs coming up the coast frequently.

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Each new El Niño boosts the temperatures to a higher baseline. The 09-10 El Niño marked the beginning of a much warmer summer pattern which continues to this day. The 15-16 El Niño coincided with a shift to much warmer winters. The winter warming shift was of a higher magnitude than we have seen relative to the previous means than the summers. Now the global temperature jump with the 23-24 El Niño was even higher than the 15-16 super El Niño even though it wasn’t as strong. So it will be interesting to see what happens to our temperatures and weather patterns in coming years at this even higher temperature baseline. 

But the summers right after 09-10 were much hotter than anything we've seen recently, our summers have gotten cooler and rainier and more humid.

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49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember that-- I wondered how we had a raging blizzard on southerly winds that night....how does that happen lol

JFK had 10" of snow after 1" of rain, which has never happened before.

The sides of our houses were caked in snow the next morning.

Why did it take us so long to changeover to snow?

 

 

The low took a track due north then NW and the trough negatively tilted fast then closed off. East of the Van Wyck was on the wrong side of the initial heavy precip burst until the heights started crashing to the east and the cold enough air could make headway east onto LI. I took the train into the city that day and remember it turning from heavy rain to heavy snow just east of Jamaica and then blinding blizzard in Manhattan. In the afternoon when I got home the snow was starting in Nassau and starting to accumulate in Long Beach, and that night winds were fierce with the snow. Very impressive storm, 2 weeks before the big 3/13/10 monster. 

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The low took a track due north then NW and the trough negatively tilted fast then closed off. East of the Van Wyck was on the wrong side of the initial heavy precip burst until the heights started crashing to the east and the cold enough air could make headway east onto LI. I took the train into the city that day and remember it turning from heavy rain to heavy snow just east of Jamaica and then blinding blizzard in Manhattan. In the afternoon when I got home the snow was starting in Nassau and starting to accumulate in Long Beach, and that night winds were fierce with the snow. Very impressive storm, 2 weeks before the big 3/13/10 monster. 

we were lucky, we could have had it as bad as Boston.... then again we were just a few miles away from 2 feet of snow lol.  I've never seen a boundary like that in such a big storm, literally dividing the city in half.

 

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But the summers right after 09-10 were much hotter than anything we've seen recently, our summers have gotten cooler and rainier and more humid.

2010 is the only summer that the coastal stations stations haven’t been able to beat. The summers after 2011 did have the memorable 105-108° maxes. But the heat peaked during 30 day periods centered around July. Our recent summers have had extended warmth throughout the summer. Places like Newark have already surpassed 2010 in the last few years. The lack of westerly flow in recent years has favored the stations away from the shore for the most extreme heat.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2022 74.6 0
- 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2021 73.7 0
8 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0
9 2013 73.4 0
10 2012 73.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 79.2 0
- 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.3 0
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0
10 1995 77.0 0
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2010 is the only summer that the coastal stations stations haven’t been able to beat. The summers after 2011 did have the memorable 105-108° maxes. But the heat peaked during 30 day periods centered around July. Our recent summers have had extended warmth throughout the summer. Places like Newark have already surpassed 2010 in the last few years.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2022 74.6 0
- 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2021 73.7 0
8 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0
9 2013 73.4 0
10 2012 73.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 79.2 0
- 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.3 0
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0
10 1995 77.0 0

But not with number of 90 degree days, right, it's simply been raining too much.

In 2010 we had the most 90 degree days ever and in 2011 we had the highest temperatures we've recorded.

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2010 is the only summer that the coastal stations stations haven’t been able to beat. The summers after 2011 did have the memorable 105-108° maxes. But the heat peaked during 30 day periods centered around July. Our recent summers have had extended warmth throughout the summer. Places like Newark have already surpassed 2010 in the last few years.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2022 74.6 0
- 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2021 73.7 0
8 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0
9 2013 73.4 0
10 2012 73.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 79.2 0
- 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.3 0
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0
10 1995 77.0 0

average temperature is deceptive though because summer heat is defined by number of hot days (90 degrees or higher).

I dont think the records from 2010 have been beaten in that department

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But not with number of 90 degree days, right, it's simply been raining too much.

In 2010 we had the most 90 degree days ever and in 2011 we had the highest temperatures we've recorded.

 

We came close back in 2022. But notice all the 40 day years recently reaching 90°. 2011 and 2012 had a much lower number of 90° days. But noteworthy shorter record heatwaves centered in July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 2022 49 0
- 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0
10 1961 34 0
11 2012 33 0
- 1999 33 0
- 1995 33 0
- 1966 33 0
12 1955 32 0
- 1953 32 0
- 1943 32 0
13 2020 31 0
- 2011 31 0
- 1973 31 0
- 1952 31 0
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We came close back in 2022. But notice all the 40 day years recently reaching 90°. 2011 and 2012 had a much lower number of 90° days. But noteworthy shorter record heatwaves centered in July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 2022 49 0
- 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0
10 1961 34 0
11 2012 33 0
- 1999 33 0
- 1995 33 0
- 1966 33 0
12 1955 32 0
- 1953 32 0
- 1943 32 0
13 2020 31 0
- 2011 31 0
- 1973 31 0
- 1952 31 0

Yes-- and I noticed something else-- the decoupling between EWR and NYC.... 2022 was #2 at EWR tied with 1993 which was NYC's hottest summer on record in terms of 90 degree days (tied with 1991) same with EWR at that point..... but 2022 is not to be found in the top 10 list for NYC, that shows that something is wrong with the siting of NYC's ASOS. 2021 which is tied with 1991 at EWR isn't to be found in NYC's top 10 list either.

It's interesting that 2016 was tied with 1983 at EWR, both were super el ninos with big snowstorms and 1983 used to be the summer with the most 90 degree days prior to the 90s (and at JFK prior to 2010), but 2016 wasn't that high on the list for 90 degree days at either NYC or JFK was it?  What was that year when JFK doubled the 70 degree dew point days record-- 2016? I remember they had like 42 of them, beating 1983's record of 21?  Too bad they didn't have nearly as many 90 degree days in 2016 as they had in 1983!

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We came close back in 2022. But notice all the 40 day years recently reaching 90°. 2011 and 2012 had a much lower number of 90° days. But noteworthy shorter record heatwaves centered in July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 2022 49 0
- 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0
10 1961 34 0
11 2012 33 0
- 1999 33 0
- 1995 33 0
- 1966 33 0
12 1955 32 0
- 1953 32 0
- 1943 32 0
13 2020 31 0
- 2011 31 0
- 1973 31 0
- 1952 31 0

What's wild about 2010 having 54 90 degree days is the fact that that year was bookended by a lot of snow.  Didn't Newark hit 106 that summer?  That was the year with the brutal soaking and windy March storm which uprooted as many trees as a hurricane.  All followed by 2011 and 2012 with Irene, the earthquake, and capped off by Sandy, itself ending with a significant early November snow.  We lived in interesting weather times.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes-- and I noticed something else-- the decoupling between EWR and NYC.... 2022 was #2 at EWR tied with 1993 which was NYC's hottest summer on record in terms of 90 degree days (tied with 1991) same with EWR at that point..... but 2022 is not to be found in the top 10 list for NYC, that shows that something is wrong with the siting of NYC's ASOS. 2021 which is tied with 1991 at EWR isn't to be found in NYC's top 10 list either.

It's interesting that 2016 was tied with 1983 at EWR, both were super el ninos with big snowstorms and 1983 used to be the summer with the most 90 degree days prior to the 90s (and at JFK prior to 2010), but 2016 wasn't that high on the list for 90 degree days at either NYC or JFK was it?  What was that year when JFK doubled the 70 degree dew point days record-- 2016? I remember they had like 42 of them, beating 1983's record of 21?  Too bad they didn't have nearly as many 90 degree days in 2016 as they had in 1983!

 

Taking the Central Park temperatures under the trees since the new ASOS was installed back in the 90s created an artificial cooling of daytime highs during the the warm season.  When they measured the temperatures away from the trees prior to the 1990s, NYC had more 90° days than LGA. So the decline in 90° days from 30 years before and after the new ASOS was installed is an artifact of the poor sitting and not a reflection of the actual temperatures  in Central Park which used to be warmer than LGA. All our other stations away from the sea breeze have seen a steep increase in 90° days over this period.

https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html

When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJTNBR&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1960&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


A16B2B96-0920-45EF-BE6F-07FE1225ED85.thumb.png.ddcab47c1cb82bc7ed27864a0b8d4977.png


8319ED1D-F2F9-456B-836A-7EFDA1508BC5.thumb.png.6235423e844f73172e46e98a09781a79.png


6D232466-C535-4EA4-9EED-BB7A60A5CD9D.thumb.png.70e42ee19a7a39e5e861738382d0a908.png
 

9BC04949-D28C-4C2D-B229-2D8CD948109D.thumb.png.670de01f3cba5a71aa9af2546f463bce.png

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