February 2024

[psv88]

53 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Since 2000 the average DJF winter temperature is lower at Kennedy than at LaGuardia and Central Park. Considering Kennedy is right on the Atlantic Ocean and the other 2 are not, I believe it shows how much the heat island affect has taken hold.

Nah. The heat island in the 5 Boros has pretty much remained the same since the 1960s. It’s not like there were vasts tracts of open farmland in queens that were developed since 2000…the square mileage of concrete development has probably been nearly identical for the last 50 years. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but barely... LGA is probably closest to where NYC should be, so neutralizing the undermeasurement would likely get NYC only to 10.2-10.8 inches

Officially the lowest 2 year average snowfall at only 7” for LGA.

[lee59]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nah. The heat island in the 5 Boros has pretty much remained the same since the 1960s. It’s not like there were vasts tracts of open farmland in queens that were developed since 2000…the square mileage of concrete development has probably been nearly identical for the last 50 years. 

Yea the heat island has been a factor for years, I just wonder with all the new construction and many new skyscrapers, it may be more pronounced than ever. The fact that Kennedy has colder winters than Central Park and Laguardia may be telling. I don't believe that was the case in the past.

[Snowshack]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

having a house in Queens and a house in wading River, you were much more likely to have a stabilized snowfall regime in Queens then in Wading River in the 1990s. That started to go crazy with super heavy snowfalls along the coast as we got into the 2000s.

Could be.  Late 90’s I lived in Mt Sinai and worked in Flushing and certainly don’t remember Flushing feeling snowier.  But overall BNL’s stats show busts under 10” have become much more common.  Can’t see that changing unless the background warming somehow does.    Our place in the Adirondacks can’t even hold snowcover through core winter  anymore.  

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea the heat island has been a factor for years, I just wonder with all the new construction and many new skyscrapers, it may be more pronounced than ever. The fact that Kennedy has colder winters than Central Park and Laguardia may be telling. I don't believe that was the case in the past.

Maybe with warmer winters the sea breeze off Jamaica keeps JFK cooler even in the winter?

JFK is definitely cooler in the other 3 seasons. 

[psv88]

Still some patches of snow in the yard. Snow hung around for a solid 10 days. Not bad 

[coastalplainsnowman]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still some patches of snow in the yard. Snow hung around for a solid 10 days. Not bad 

If there was a stat for 'average sporadic snowcover' or something like that, I wonder where this winter would rank on LI.  It might be as high as 'only' 25th worst by such a measurement.

On that note, any idea where it stands with regard to the official snowcover statistic at say KFRG?  I'm not familiar with where to find that.

 

[the_other_guy]

49 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Could be.  Late 90’s I lived in Mt Sinai and worked in Flushing and certainly don’t remember Flushing feeling snowier.  But overall BNL’s stats show busts under 10” have become much more common.  Can’t see that changing unless the background warming somehow does.    Our place in the Adirondacks can’t even hold snowcover through core winter  anymore.  

where are you in the Adirondacks? It seems like you have to be in the high peaks area now to really hold snow up there.

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

If there was a stat for 'average sporadic snowcover' or something like that, I wonder where this winter would rank on LI.  It might be as high as 'only' 25th worst by such a measurement.

On that note, any idea where it stands with regard to the official snowcover statistic at say KFRG?  I'm not familiar with where to find that.

 

KFRG is a pretty urban site. Barely radiates so it’s not really representative of much of the island. 

[bluewave]

Continuation of the all or nothing snowfall theme at Islip since 1994. Nearly all the seasons have been under 15” or over 30”. Before 1994 we had numerous seasons in the over 15” and under 30 range  So the winter warming has introduced a higher degree of volatility into the snowfall patterns. Eventually the under 15” seasons will begin to dominate as it continues to warm. But hopefully we can get more of the over 30” seasons before it just becomes to warm for above average snowfall seasons. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2024-04-30	10.9	67
2023-04-30	5.0	0
2022-04-30	37.0	0
2021-04-30	33.5	0
2020-04-30	6.8	0
2019-04-30	12.8	0
2018-04-30	65.9	0
2017-04-30	39.3	0
2016-04-30	41.4	0
2015-04-30	63.7	0
2014-04-30	63.7	0
2013-04-30	46.9	0
2012-04-30	4.7	0
2011-04-30	55.3	0
2010-04-30	53.8	0
2009-04-30	36.2	0
2008-04-30	10.7	0
2007-04-30	9.0	0
2006-04-30	36.0	0
2005-04-30	58.8	0
2004-04-30	41.4	0
2003-04-30	54.6	0
2002-04-30	3.7	1
2001-04-30	38.9	1
2000-04-30	9.0	0
1999-04-30	19.4	0
1998-04-30	2.6	0
1997-04-30	12.4	1
1996-04-30	77.1	0
1995-04-30	5.1	0
1994-04-30	37.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1993-04-30	28.6	0
1992-04-30	13.4	0
1991-04-30	13.8	0
1990-04-30	19.0	0
1989-04-30	19.0	0
1988-04-30	19.5	0
1987-04-30	22.5	0
1986-04-30	15.2	0
1985-04-30	26.9	0
1984-04-30	27.5	0
1983-04-30	31.9	0
1982-04-30	35.4	0
1981-04-30	20.8	0
1980-04-30	9.0	0
1979-04-30	28.1	0
1978-04-30	68.0	0
1977-04-30	28.0	0
1976-04-30	30.2	0
1975-04-30	14.5	0
1974-04-30	34.0	0
1973-04-30	4.5	0
1972-04-30	15.6	0
1971-04-30	18.9	0
1970-04-30	27.0	0
1969-04-30	33.5	0
1968-04-30	22.6	0
1967-04-30	50.8	0
1966-04-30	15.7	0
1965-04-30	39.5	0
1964-04-30	39.7	6

[Snowshack]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

where are you in the Adirondacks? It seems like you have to be in the high peaks area now to really hold snow up there.

About 1500’ elevation about seven miles from Gore.  Indian lake area and north definitely still hanging onto snow better.    Shame to see it change.  

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

KFRG is a pretty urban site. Barely radiates so it’s not really representative of much of the island. 

I mention that one because it's the closest one to me.  It was notable to me how much bang for the buck we got, snowcover-wise, out of the two little storms we got this year.  Especially that first one, snow hung around longer than some much larger storms we've had in the past.  We didn't have too much crazy warmth, snow-eating fog, etc.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Yea the heat island has been a factor for years, I just wonder with all the new construction and many new skyscrapers, it may be more pronounced than ever. The fact that Kennedy has colder winters than Central Park and Laguardia may be telling. I don't believe that was the case in the past.

the last thing they should be doing is building more skyscrapers.

NYC has become the city for the rich and for the rich only.

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, psv88 said:

KFRG is a pretty urban site. Barely radiates so it’s not really representative of much of the island. 

it's good for Nassau County outside of the northern parts, because most of Nassau County is very urban.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Maybe with warmer winters the sea breeze off Jamaica keeps JFK cooler even in the winter?

JFK is definitely cooler in the other 3 seasons. 

JFK radiates MUCH better than Central Park.

Sometimes we're up to 10 degrees colder and below freezing while both NYC and LGA are above.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

Since 2000 the average DJF winter temperature is lower at Kennedy than at LaGuardia and Central Park. Considering Kennedy is right on the Atlantic Ocean and the other 2 are not, I believe it shows how much the heat island affect has taken hold.

JFK radiates much better at night-- there's your concrete influence at the other places.

JFK is located near a marsh and sandy soil, which are perfect for radiational cooling.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

it isn’t linear with Central Park. Jfk is very influenced by the water, and as somebody that lived in wading river for most of his life, I could tell you that it wasn’t unusual to have an all or nothing type winter. The water is always too warm for snow.

 

what has changed since the 1990s is that the “inland” urban stations are much warmer. And the types of snowfall we get are now from the water, larger storms pulling in cold air. Less frequent and stronger.

 

It Rearranges the deck chairs on the titanic. There’s a high possibility that if you are adjacent to the coast you could jackpot. we’ve seen this on Long Island several times over the last 15 to 20 years. It isnt a normal phenomenon in our area. 287 N and W should jackpot based on historic climatology. that’s why you’ve had all that record snow in places like Islip.

 

over the last few years, you have seen a return to the more historical jackpot areas as it is simply too warm to snow. N and W are getting scraps in a declining snow regime and urban areas are getting shut out altogether

 

 

what I'm wondering about is if what's happened since 2015-16 is a long term change, where we're seeing more DJF averages of 40 degrees or warmer than we did before.  Going forward, is a DJF of 40 degrees or warmer the new normal? Because if it is, we're going to see a lot more of these winters than the good ones.

 

[dWave]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

Since 2000 the average DJF winter temperature is lower at Kennedy than at LaGuardia and Central Park. Considering Kennedy is right on the Atlantic Ocean and the other 2 are not, I believe it shows how much the heat island affect has taken hold.

It actually make sense to me for JFK to be a little cooler. JFK has always radiated well at night by NYC standards, so you have some cooler lows in many setups. Then warm ups in winter are muted, often severely so, at JFK. Occasional days spiking well into the 50s or 60s will happen at Central Park but the smallest southern component to the wind will rob JFK of it and they will sit at 48 or something.

[bluewave]

No surprise all the guidance has gone warm when we see a 6 sigma jet max over the North Pacific.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

KFRG is a pretty urban site. Barely radiates so it’s not really representative of much of the island. 

I live 20 mins or so north on Rt 110, it’s comical sometimes how much warmer it is there than me. 

[SACRUS]

 

36 last night now to 43.  Nice sunny day.  Next 9 of 11 days on the warm side of normal.  cooler 2/29-3/1 otherwise warmer.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 74 (2017)
NYC: 75 (1985)
LGA: 73 (1985)


Lows:

EWR: 4 (2015)
NYC: -1 (1873)
LGA: 6 (2015)

 

Historical:

1802 - A great snowstorm raged along the New England coast producing 48 inches of snow north of Boston. Three large ships from Salem were wrecked along Cape Cod. (David Ludlum)

1852 - The Susquehanna River ice bridge at Havre de Grace, MD, commenced to break up after forty days of use. A total of 1738 loaded freight cars were hauled along rails laid on the ice. (David Ludlum)

1936 - Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1969: The famous "100-Hour Storm" began in Boston, MA. Snow often fell between early on the 25th and noon on the 28th. The 26.3 inches at Logan Airport is the 2nd most significant snowstorm in Boston's history. In addition, 77 inches fell at Pinkham Notch Base Station in New Hampshire, bringing their February total to 130 inches. Their snow cover on the 27th was 164 inches. Mt. Washington, NH, received 172.8 inches of snow in the month.

1987 - A massive winter storm began to overspread the western U.S. In southern California, Big Bear was blanketed with 17 inches of snow, and Lake Hughes reported four inches of snow in just one hour. Snow pellets whitened coastal areas of Orange County and San Diego County, with three inches at Huntington Beach. The storm also produced thunderstorms with hail and waterspouts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region which created "white-out" conditions in eastern Upper Michigan. Squalls produced up to 14 inches of snow in Geauga County of northeastern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northerly winds prevailed from Illinois to the Southern and Central Appalachians. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Sewickley Heights PA. High winds caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow across northern and central Indiana through the day. Wind gusts to 47 mph and 6 to 8 inches of snow created white-out conditions around South Bend IN. Traffic accidents resulted in two deaths and 130 injuries. Sixty-five persons were injured in one accident along Interstate 69 in Huntington County. Wind gusts to 60 mph and 4 to 8 inches of snow created blizzard conditions in eastern and northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2001: Over a dozen tornadoes spawned in central and eastern Arkansas. The strongest tornado (F3) was in Desha County, with parts of a farm shop found six miles away from where it was blown apart. An 18-month-old was killed in Fulton County by an F2 tornado.

2004 - Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. he mountains east of Santa Fe receive 20 inches. Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches. 8 inches falls at Los Alamos.

 

2016: A strong area of low pressure along with a cold front produced a severe weather outbreak from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Not one but two rare February tornadoes occurred in central Virginia. The strongest tornado caused EF3 damage in Appomattox County. This is the first EF3 tornado ever in Appomattox County.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 74 (2017)
NYC: 75 (1985)
LGA: 73 (1985)


Lows:

EWR: 4 (2015)
NYC: -1 (1873)
LGA: 6 (2015)

 

Historical:

1802 - A great snowstorm raged along the New England coast producing 48 inches of snow north of Boston. Three large ships from Salem were wrecked along Cape Cod. (David Ludlum)

1852 - The Susquehanna River ice bridge at Havre de Grace, MD, commenced to break up after forty days of use. A total of 1738 loaded freight cars were hauled along rails laid on the ice. (David Ludlum)

1936 - Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1969: The famous "100-Hour Storm" began in Boston, MA. Snow often fell between early on the 25th and noon on the 28th. The 26.3 inches at Logan Airport is the 2nd most significant snowstorm in Boston's history. In addition, 77 inches fell at Pinkham Notch Base Station in New Hampshire, bringing their February total to 130 inches. Their snow cover on the 27th was 164 inches. Mt. Washington, NH, received 172.8 inches of snow in the month.

1987 - A massive winter storm began to overspread the western U.S. In southern California, Big Bear was blanketed with 17 inches of snow, and Lake Hughes reported four inches of snow in just one hour. Snow pellets whitened coastal areas of Orange County and San Diego County, with three inches at Huntington Beach. The storm also produced thunderstorms with hail and waterspouts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region which created "white-out" conditions in eastern Upper Michigan. Squalls produced up to 14 inches of snow in Geauga County of northeastern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northerly winds prevailed from Illinois to the Southern and Central Appalachians. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Sewickley Heights PA. High winds caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow across northern and central Indiana through the day. Wind gusts to 47 mph and 6 to 8 inches of snow created white-out conditions around South Bend IN. Traffic accidents resulted in two deaths and 130 injuries. Sixty-five persons were injured in one accident along Interstate 69 in Huntington County. Wind gusts to 60 mph and 4 to 8 inches of snow created blizzard conditions in eastern and northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2001: Over a dozen tornadoes spawned in central and eastern Arkansas. The strongest tornado (F3) was in Desha County, with parts of a farm shop found six miles away from where it was blown apart. An 18-month-old was killed in Fulton County by an F2 tornado.

2004 - Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. he mountains east of Santa Fe receive 20 inches. Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches. 8 inches falls at Los Alamos.

 

2016: A strong area of low pressure along with a cold front produced a severe weather outbreak from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Not one but two rare February tornadoes occurred in central Virginia. The strongest tornado caused EF3 damage in Appomattox County. This is the first EF3 tornado ever in Appomattox County.

 

 

 

wow this is a very bad day in snowfall history for NY-- in 1969 we missed a 100 hr snowstorm that went just north of us and in 1989 we missed a 20 inch snowstorm that went just south of us (and this was a busted forecast, we were supposed to get 6-8 inches and only got virga.)

 

looks like a day of extremes too, from mid 70s in 1985 (when it was -2 back in January) and in 2017 to single digits in 2015!

 

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Still some patches of snow in the yard. Snow hung around for a solid 10 days. Not bad 

2 days ago

 

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

2 days ago

 

Still had some snow here on Thursday, yesterday took care of it.

[gravitylover]

I'm down to 1" on 30% of the property now. Drove past a few freezer hillsides this afternoon where it still looks good but it's just a short matter of time for them too. 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, Snowshack said:

Could be.  Late 90’s I lived in Mt Sinai and worked in Flushing and certainly don’t remember Flushing feeling snowier.  But overall BNL’s stats show busts under 10” have become much more common.  Can’t see that changing unless the background warming somehow does.    Our place in the Adirondacks can’t even hold snowcover through core winter  anymore.  

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another chilly day. However, the cold will rapidly depart from the region by Monday. Afterward, temperatures will quickly rebound. Afterward, temperatures will remain generally above normal through the remainder of February. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

March will likely begin with generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +2.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.744 today.

On February 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.343 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.126 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.9° (4.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.4°-40.7°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Winters 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 will become the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be another chilly day. However, the cold will rapidly depart from the region by Monday. Afterward, temperatures will quickly rebound. Afterward, temperatures will remain generally above normal through the remainder of February. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

March will likely begin with generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +2.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.744 today.

On February 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.343 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.126 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.9° (4.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.4°-40.7°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Winters 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 will become the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

Let's see if we can get February to finish with an average temp of 40.0...

Looks like the last day of the month and the first day of March could be cold though?

 

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Let's see if we can get February to finish with an average temp of 40.0...

Looks like the last day of the month and the first day of March could be cold though?

 

It will be a close call, even as February 29th is cooler than modeled a few days ago. If the warmth overperforms next week, February could have a 40-degree mean temperature.