LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 2:48 PM, Brian5671 said: It was a night time event too....32-33 degrees the whole storm-was vaporized in about 12 hrs after it stopped too lol Expand and Central Park was the only one who got 5" from what I remember, the rest of us were more like 2-3" Still that was big in a season with only 0.5" It sucks though, it would have been far and away the lowest snowfall total ever if it wasn't for that one storm at the end. So historic in that sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 1:14 PM, MJO812 said: Models look so ugly and boring Sad Expand It was an ugly and boring winter outside the few days in mid Feb. Sad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 .96 of an inch of rain at BDR this month-first dry month since last May/June. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 2:54 PM, Brian5671 said: .96 of an inch of rain at BDR this month-first dry month since last May/June. Expand Yeah, the hose finally got turned off. We'll see where we go from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 2:49 PM, LibertyBell said: and Central Park was the only one who got 5" from what I remember, the rest of us were more like 2-3" Still that was big in a season with only 0.5" It sucks though, it would have been far and away the lowest snowfall total ever if it wasn't for that one storm at the end. So historic in that sense. Expand We needed that Arctic outbreak about 10 days before the 3-22 snowstorm in NYC. The record 80s warmth didn’t occur until after the snow in March 1998. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 2:40 PM, LibertyBell said: What causes ocean acidification, Don? Does the excess CO2 get absorbed by the oceans and make them more acidic? Expand CO2 reacts with water to form carbonic acid. As carbonic acid concentrations rise, oceans become more acidic, as is currently occurring. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 3:23 PM, donsutherland1 said: CO2 reacts with water to form carbonic acid. As carbonic acid concentrations rise, oceans become more acidic, as is currently occurring. Expand That's what I thought, this has happened in the past during mass extinction events.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 3:19 PM, bluewave said: We needed that Arctic outbreak about 10 days before the 3-22 snowstorm in NYC. The record 80s warmth didn’t occur until after the snow in March 1998. Expand wow, so we had cold leading into the snow event then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 3:05 PM, MANDA said: Yeah, the hose finally got turned off. We'll see where we go from here. Expand hopefully dry and warm like the last two springs. March can be wet but once April is here dry and warm is preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 3:23 PM, donsutherland1 said: CO2 reacts with water to form carbonic acid. As carbonic acid concentrations rise, oceans become more acidic, as is currently occurring. Expand I posted this in the la nina thread unfortunately we have been talking about ocean acidification and a mass extinction event (which we have already started), it's happened in the past, where up to 90% of life on the planet goes extinct as nature is trying to balance things out. ocean hypoxia is quite frightening, can you imagine all that life dying wow reaching temperature thresholds like 1.5 C and 2.0 C are the wrong things to talk about, the real danger is a runaway chemical process after reaching a tipping point or threshold and that runaway chemical process is what will cascade into something we can never come back from. the problem is not simply of temperatures, but of a runaway cascading chemical process from which there is no return 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 3:40 PM, LibertyBell said: wow, so we had cold leading into the snow event then? Expand The 97-98 season was one of the few times that March had a colder daily departure in NYC than during DJF. The -16 on the 12th was the coldest of the entire season. So we needed that colder period in mid-March to prime the pattern for snow on the 22nd. NYC had two days with highs not getting above freezing after March 10th which is rare by todays standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 2:43 PM, LibertyBell said: He's probably thinking something like March 1998, and that was about as marginal as it gets lol. Did we ever get below freezing during that storm? Expand It was a night time event too....32-33 degrees the whole storm-was vaporized in about 12 hrs after it stopped too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 3:51 PM, LibertyBell said: I posted this in the la nina thread unfortunately we have been talking about ocean acidification and a mass extinction event (which we have already started), it's happened in the past, where up to 90% of life on the planet goes extinct as nature is trying to balance things out. ocean hypoxia is quite frightening, can you imagine all that life dying wow reaching temperature thresholds like 1.5 C and 2.0 C are the wrong things to talk about, the real danger is a runaway chemical process after reaching a tipping point or threshold and that runaway chemical process is what will cascade into something we can never come back from. the problem is not simply of temperatures, but of a runaway cascading chemical process from which there is no return Expand Sometimes I wonder why Venus ended up the way that it is with a run away greenhouse. Are we starting to go down that ugly road? Scary thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 4:31 PM, Yanksfan said: Sometimes I wonder why Venus ended up the way that it is with a run away greenhouse. Are we starting to go down that ugly road? Scary thoughts. Expand The real trigger would sufficient evaporation of the oceans. That’s currently not likely. A good paper: https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 4:38 PM, donsutherland1 said: The real trigger would sufficient evaporation of the oceans. That’s currently not likely. A good paper: https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html Expand what would be necessary for this to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 4:38 PM, donsutherland1 said: The real trigger would sufficient evaporation of the oceans. That’s currently not likely. A good paper: https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html Expand wow some excellent articles on here about exoplanets with water, in case we need to get off of here and find another planet to live on https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/11/aa47539-23/aa47539-23.html Abstract Understanding the set of conditions that allow rocky planets to have liquid water on their surface, in the form of lakes, seas, or oceans, is a major scientific step in determining the fraction of planets potentially suitable for the emergence and development of life as we know it on Earth. This effort is also necessary to define and refine what is known as the habitable zone (HZ) in order to guide the search for exoplanets likely to harbor remotely detectable life forms. To date, most numerical climate studies on this topic have focused on the conditions necessary to maintain oceans, but not to form them in the first place. https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2022/02/aa42286-21/aa42286-21.html Abstract As the insolation of an Earth-like (exo)planet with a large amount of water increases, its surface and atmospheric temperatures also increase, eventually leading to a catastrophic runaway greenhouse transition. While some studies have shown that the onset of the runaway greenhouse may be delayed due to an overshoot of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) – compared to the Simpson-Nakajima threshold – by radiatively inactive gases, there is still no consensus on whether this is occurring and why. https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/abs/2019/08/aa35585-19/aa35585-19.html Abstract Planets similar to Earth but slightly more irradiated are expected to enter into a runaway greenhouse state, where all surface water rapidly evaporates, forming an optically thick H2O-dominated atmosphere. For Earth, this extreme climate transition is thought to occur for an increase of only ~6% in solar luminosity, though the exact limit at which the transition would occur is still a highly debated topic. In general, the runaway greenhouse is believed to be a fundamental process in the evolution of Earth-sized, temperate planets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 4:11 PM, bluewave said: The 97-98 season was one of the few times that March had a colder daily departure in NYC than during DJF. The -16 on the 12th was the coldest of the entire season. So we needed that colder period in mid-March to prime the pattern for snow on the 22nd. NYC had two days with highs not getting above freezing after March 10th which is rare by todays standards. Expand especially in such a warm winter-- what caused such a late season outbreak, Chris? The other one which comes to mind for me happened in 1994-95 another very warm winter, when we had an arctic outbreak in April with sunny skies very windy and temps in the mid 30s during the day and low 20s at night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 4:43 PM, LibertyBell said: what would be necessary for this to happen? Expand A lot more warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 4:49 PM, LibertyBell said: especially in such a warm winter-- what caused such a late season outbreak, Chris? The other one which comes to mind for me happened in 1994-95 another very warm winter, when we had an arctic outbreak in April with sunny skies very windy and temps in the mid 30s during the day and low 20s at night! Expand We had a great -EPO pattern in mid-March 1998. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 5:13 PM, bluewave said: We had a great -EPO pattern in mid-March 1998. Expand something we haven't had in many years....since 2014-15.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 2:54 PM, Brian5671 said: .96 of an inch of rain at BDR this month-first dry month since last May/June. Expand Wow it doesn't seem possible with how soggy everything has been but yeah, I'm at about .8 for the month and half of that is from last night's glopfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 5:18 PM, LibertyBell said: something we haven't had in many years....since 2014-15.... Expand Yeah, 13-14 and 14-15 were the last time we had a strong -EPO pattern during the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 Syracuse only has 34.5” for the winter and is behind Binghamton by 4”. That’s eye popping bad-I think that’s about 30% of average to date and has to be close to their all time lowest snowfall winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 1:14 PM, MJO812 said: Models look so ugly and boring Sad Expand Yep after a brief minor cool shot March 1st, it looks like an extended warm pattern. Lots of 55 to 60 degree days in early March. It appears likely that we're done. Obviously we can't completely rule out the possibility of getting lucky with something in mid March, but we'd much rather have cold air in early March if we're gonna get any. Only a very slim chance that something would work out near the coast in mid to late March. At that point I'm moving onto the gardening season anyway. We were very lucky to get as much snow as we did in a warm winter, so I can't complain. I'm ready to move on and hope we have mild weather in late March when it's time to get the gardening season started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 5:25 PM, jm1220 said: Syracuse only has 34.5” for the winter and is behind Binghamton by 4”. That’s eye popping bad-I think that’s about 30% of average to date and has to be close to their all time lowest snowfall winter. Expand Lots of awful totals across the nation outside of a couple areas like Nashville etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 5:25 PM, jm1220 said: Syracuse only has 34.5” for the winter and is behind Binghamton by 4”. That’s eye popping bad-I think that’s about 30% of average to date and has to be close to their all time lowest snowfall winter. Expand Yes, pretty bad. I looked into this yesterday. As @BuffaloWeather pointed out, the pre-1949 numbers aren't really directly comparable to the modern values since the city station is less favored for LES than the airport and averaged significantly lighter snowfall. Note that xMacis is missing a lot of data, so I had to dig into the old Monthly Weather Review to find the complete seasonal totals for some of the earlier years at the city office. Last year was the third least since the winter of 1934-1935 [only 2011-2012 & 2001-2002 saw less snowfall], but this winter has seen barely half of last year's total thus far. Another 16.1" could fall, and it would still be the least ever observed at KSYR and top 5 least in the threaded record. And the advent of snowboards and periodic 6-hourly measurements certainly inflates some of the recent tallies compared to many decades ago, especially with fluffy, airy lake effect snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 5:21 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, 13-14 and 14-15 were the last time we had a strong -EPO pattern during the winter. Expand Wasn’t Jan 22 -EPO? I may be misremembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 2:48 PM, LibertyBell said: It makes a lot of sense and here's another caution flag and this is for those who think nature will balance everything out on its own.... think of what it will take to "recalibrate" and what kind of effects that recalibration will have on us as a species. Expand I just caught a bit of something that Jeff Berradelli posted about potential upwelling cooling the ocean's surface. But wouldn't that eventually just overall heat the entire ocean column? Wouldn't the surface heat just get transferred deeper into the oceans? Asking for a friend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 6:31 PM, Dark Star said: I just caught a bit of something that Jeff Berradelli posted about potential upwelling cooling the ocean's surface. But wouldn't that eventually just overall heat the entire ocean column? Wouldn't the surface heat just get transferred deeper into the oceans? Asking for a friend... Expand Not sure if I can digest the study in this link concerning the oceans absorbing atmospheric heat... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9452516/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2024 Share Posted February 23, 2024 On 2/23/2024 at 6:31 PM, Dark Star said: I just caught a bit of something that Jeff Berradelli posted about potential upwelling cooling the ocean's surface. But wouldn't that eventually just overall heat the entire ocean column? Wouldn't the surface heat just get transferred deeper into the oceans? Asking for a friend... Expand Yes, especially with how deep the heat extends. If you're talking about upwelling from increased TC activity, that only causes temporary changes to the temperature profile of the oceans; with how deep the heat is, in a couple of weeks the surface of the ocean is back to boiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now