February 2024

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

LFG! Bring it 

I think we’re done outside of some freak, anomalous event which is always a risk every year in mid-late March. Even if we assume the pattern flips at 3/15 (big assumption), at that point, at our latitude, it’s spring climo/sun angle/length of day season. Average highs in the 50’s. The Equinox is only 4 days later and all of the arctic cold is locked on the other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia going into March. We are very likely donzo

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think we’re done outside of some freak, anomalous event which is always a risk every year in mid-late March. Even if we assume the pattern flips at 3/15 (big assumption), at that point, at our latitude, it’s spring climo/sun angle/length of day season. Average highs in the 50’s. The Equinox is only 4 days later and all of the arctic cold is locked on the other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia going into March. We are very likely donzo

Good. Time for a early spring 

[Brian5671]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

About 13" here I rate it as a C-

Same here...2 weeks of winter essentially-lot of hype for patterns that when they came were grossly cut short.

[Allsnow]

24” here. C. Two weeks of winter and one storm over 10 inches 

[Volcanic Winter]

54 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Yup and even worse was 2022 /s. Spent January-April with family in FL.

This was my driveway on Jan 29 from a friend taking care of my dogs.
19" of powder. Drifts nearly covered the top of the Vette

Wow you did better than me, I had 16 inches at the Manchester border. I think I saw you’re at the eastern side of TR and this was definitely one of those storms that paid off being at the immediate coast.

Great storm for us. 

Jan 22 was a nice wintry month, I look back on it very fondly for more than just the big finish. 

[Volcanic Winter]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

24” here. C. Two weeks of winter and one storm over 10 inches 

I’ll never forget tracking that band on radar, my jaw was on the floor. More than a little jealous but happy it happened!

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Wow you did better than me, I had 16 inches at the Manchester border. 

Great storm for us. 

Jan 22 was a nice wintry month, I look back on it very fondly for more than just the big finish. 

We also had a nice storm to start that January. I think it was 1/7 where I had about 8”. It may not have been that great south of the city. 

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We also had a nice storm to start that January. I think it was 1/7 where I had about 8”. It may not have been that great south of the city. 

Nah that hit here too. Was like 4-5 IMBY. I frustratingly whiffed north on the ACY storm (what was that 1/2 or 1/3?) when originally forecasted to get something. Nothing but virga while ACY got demolished. That was the only frustration point for me that month. 

[snowman19]

37 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

24” here. C. Two weeks of winter and one storm over 10 inches 

After all the non stop hype from some since November, around 2 weeks total of true arctic cold in mid-January and one 10+ storm (one 8-9 inch storm for my neck of the woods)…going into March…that’s all we have to show for it….pretty sad

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Still no explanation of whats causing this massive heatwave, nor what it would take to neutralize it....

 

We have had a Virginia winter temperature regime in place since the +13.3 December 2015. NYC has been at a new winter average of 38.5° lasting almost an entire decade. The previous 1981-2010 winter average was 35.1° So that is +3.4 warmer over a 9 winter period. Plus this is a regional event for the East and many other sites have made a shift like this in December 2015 and are at +3 to +4 over 1981-2010 climate normals. I am not aware of any other region of the country that has ever had nearly a decade at +3.4° above the previous 30 year climate normals. It’s seems like the frequent marine heatwaves in the Eastern IO to WPAC have loaded the dice for more forcing in these regions which is warm for us. I don’t really know what it would take to shift this pattern. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.8	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	39.4	40.4
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Good. Time for a early spring 

This crap can wait 

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After all the non stop hype from some since November, around 2 weeks total of true arctic cold in mid-January and one 10+ storm (one 8-9 inch storm for my neck of the woods)…going into March…that’s all we have to show for it….pretty sad

We were lucky to get that much.  Typically with such a warm background state you'd expect to  see snowfall totals like last year--5 inches or less for the coast and city

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had a Virginia winter temperature regime in place since the +13.3 December 2015. NYC has been at a new winter average of 38.5° lasting almost an entire decade. The previous 1981-2010 winter average was 35.1° So that is +3.4 warmer over a 9 winter period. Plus this is a regional event for the Northeast and many other sites have made a shift like this in December 2015. I am not aware of any other region of the country that has ever had nearly a decade at +3.4° above the previous 30 year climate normals. It’s seems like the frequent marine heatwaves in the Eastern IO to WPAC have loaded the dice for more forcing in these regions which is warm for us. I don’t really know what it would take to shift this pattern. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.8	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	39.4	40.4
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

Western IO temps are rising fast which could create longer/stronger forcing in phases 1 and 2.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had a Virginia winter temperature regime in place since the +13.3 December 2015. NYC has been at a new winter average of 38.5° lasting almost an entire decade. The previous 1981-2010 winter average was 35.1° So that is +3.4 warmer over a 9 winter period. Plus this is a regional event for the East and many other sites have made a shift like this in December 2015 and are at +3 to +4 over 1981-2010 climate normals. I am not aware of any other region of the country that has ever had nearly a decade at +3.4° above the previous 30 year climate normals. It’s seems like the frequent marine heatwaves in the Eastern IO to WPAC have loaded the dice for more forcing in these regions which is warm for us. I don’t really know what it would take to shift this pattern. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.8	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0	39.4	40.4
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

 

This took a HUGE AMOUNT of energy to increase the temperature so much for a whole month so quickly over such a large area.  Is there any way to perform calculations to figure out the total amount of energy increase necessary to do this?

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Nah that hit here too. Was like 4-5 IMBY. I frustratingly whiffed north on the ACY storm (what was that 1/2 or 1/3?) when originally forecasted to get something. Nothing but virga while ACY got demolished. That was the only frustration point for me that month. 

How much did ACY get in that storm?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think we’re done outside of some freak, anomalous event which is always a risk every year in mid-late March. Even if we assume the pattern flips at 3/15 (big assumption), at that point, at our latitude, it’s spring climo/sun angle/length of day season. Average highs in the 50’s. The Equinox is only 4 days later and all of the arctic cold is locked on the other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia going into March. We are very likely donzo

It would be interesting to see when on average we get our last 1.0" storm and our last 0.1" storm, probably around March 20-22?

I'd bet we might have already had our last 1.0" storm, not sure about last 0.1" though.

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This took a HUGE AMOUNT of energy to increase the temperature so much for a whole month so quickly over such a large area.  Is there any way to perform calculations to figure out the total amount of energy increase necessary to do this?

 

Good question. Plus we may be dealing with non-linear changes involving threshold temperatures for deep convection. 
 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101499

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good question. Plus we may be dealing with non-linear changes involving threshold temperatures for deep convection. 
 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101499

 

in other words, a tipping point may have been reached.... or breached might be a better way of putting it.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How much did ACY get in that storm?

I don’t remember exactly but it was definitely over a foot. It was a big storm for them. Just had a hellaciously sharp northern cutoff that verified even sharper than forecast. I think I was set to get 4-6 from it and got nothing. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I don’t remember exactly but it was definitely over a foot. It was a big storm for them. Just had a hellaciously sharp northern cutoff that verified even sharper than forecast. I think was set to get 4-6 from it and got nothing. 

It reminds me  of February 1989 we were forecast to get 6-8 and got nothing meanwhile ACY got 19"

 

[the_other_guy]

Im impressed with snow cover remaining in Westchester. Granted we have hills. Enjoying last licks. 36F light rain

[jm1220]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed with snow cover remaining in Westchester. Granted we have hills. Enjoying last licks

In some places in the shade we have a few inches left here. I’m sure it’ll be gone by Sat after the rain though. 

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Im impressed with snow cover remaining in Westchester. Granted we have hills. Enjoying last licks. 36F light rain

Still seeing scraps of pack driving through Monmouth even on the Parkway as I head north work up in Union. Not too shabby. 

You guys I’m sure have been doing very well with that. 

[donsutherland1]

A milder pattern is now in place. Aside from a brief push of cooler air during the coming weekend, temperatures should remain generally above normal through the remainder of February. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February.

March will likely begin with generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade.  

The SOI was -0.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.568 today.

On February 20 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.432 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.808 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.9° (4.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.4°-40.7°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. It would also be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

[LAVistaNY]

34° light rain with some pingers here in Westchester at 500ft

[sussexcountyobs]

Wet snow and snow pellets falling. 34°

[psv88]

Pack holding strong in my yard. 3-4” in the shade, 1-2” in the open. 

[sussexcountyobs]

No more snow pellets. Now moderate snow. Big fat flakes.

[gravitylover]

Snowing here too. 

[JustinRP37]

Still have a 2-4 inch pack in my yard, but it will be gone after this weekend. Currently snowing and sleeting quite hard. Winter's last hurrah here as it is currently modeled. Getting a Killington trip in this weekend and then we will re-evaluate.