February 2024

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need canes, many

The hurricanes may help with redistributing heat into the N Atlantic and promote blocking in the winter? I’d like to read more research into it but there’s definitely a correlation between the high Atlantic ACE hurricane seasons and better Nina winters here. The better Nina winters are known for blocking episodes that force the cutter tracks south. 1995, 2010 and 2020 were very busy Nina hurricane seasons with good winters after. 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if the SSTs are the reason for it, it's not a cycle, because we are in completely uncharted territory with SST this warm.

 

In the years we have major snowstorms, the Mets always go to the playoffs. I'm not looking forward to this season.

[psv88]

Glacier remains for another day. Pretty much a 4 inch block of ice on the grass. Should be gone by Saturday 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive for UCLA to establish the new all-time monthly rainfall record beating the 1998 El Niño.

 

[kat5hurricane]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if the SSTs are the reason for it, it's not a cycle, because we are in completely uncharted territory with SST this warm.

 

The SSTs will also fuel bigger storms so while winters will warm, we should experience more bigger storms. More winters like '05-'06 and '15-'16 and less like '13-'14 and '14-'15. We really need a cooperative pacific for prolonged winter or the real big storms and that just hasn't happened for a long time.

Eventually the warmer climate will likely be so overwhelming that relatively snowless winters will be the norm but I don't think that'll happen in our lifetime. A snowy period will occur again.

[donsutherland1]

On 2/18/2024 at 1:42 PM, donsutherland1 said:

For reference: March clusters based on cases with an average ONI of +1.500C or above for December-February:

The CFSv2 currently favors a warmer version of Cluster 1. The single case with a negative PDO was March 1973 (Cluster 4).

 

The CFSv2 is now moving into its skillful range. Its March outlook has shifted toward Cluster 4 of the strong ENSO cases provided previously.

Cluster 4 is the PDO- case from 1973. Previously, the CFSv2 had favored a warmer version of Cluster 1, which had warmth across the northern tier of the CONUS.

CFSv2 500 mb Forecast:

CFSv2 Temperature Forecast:

Evolution of CFSv2 Forecasts:

Key Takeaways:

• A warmer than normal March continues to be favored in the Northeast, including the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions (majority of ENSO clusters and evolving CFSv2 guidance)
• Based on strong ENSO climatology, the March 11-24 period might offer the remaining window of opportunity for some cold and/or snow. The latest ECMWF weekly guidance has the coldest anomalies relative to normal in the closing 2 weeks of the month, but the weeklies lack skill at that timeframe. Until one is closer to the forecast period and there is both skill and consensus on the guidance, it makes sense to defer to climatology.
• The potential stratospheric warming event could be a "final warming" event. Such events typically do not have the same response as other stratospheric warming events.
• ENSO Cluster 4 (PDO-) favors below normal snowfall in the Northeast. Based on the latest guidance, the probability that Central Park could fail to reach 10" snow for a record second consecutive winter has increased.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The SSTs will also fuel bigger storms so while winters will warm, we should experience more bigger storms. More winters like '05-'06 and '15-'16 and less like '13-'14 and '14-'15. We really need a cooperative pacific for prolonged winter or the real big storms and that just hasn't happened for a long time.

Eventually the warmer climate will likely be so overwhelming that relatively snowless winters will be the norm but I don't think that'll happen in our lifetime. A snowy period will occur again.

Agree 100%.

I look at 13/14 as a shorter duration, higher snowfall slightly warmer version of 93/94. The next time we have a similar setup we will likely compare to 13/14 and see the same differences. 

[EastonSN+]

Looking at the MJO, looks like a pretty high amplitude wave in phases 2 and 3. Hopefully moved on so we finally have a warm April.

 

[EastonSN+]

[SACRUS]

 

low of 23 now to 32.    Partly sunny now with clouds and showers coming in later THu into Fri.  Chillier weekend before warming Monday and peaking Wed/Thu with some 60s despite clouds and showers.  A quick shot of cold to open March but overall warm again fro the 3rd onward.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1997)
NYC:  69 (1997)
LGA: 70 (1997)



Lows:

EWR: 8 (1963)
NYC: 8 (1963)
LGA: 9 (1963)

 

Historical:

 

1773 - The memorable "Cold Sabbath" in New England history. Many persons froze extremities while going to church. (David Ludlum)

1936 - Although heat and dust prevailed in the spring and summer, early 1936 brought record cold to parts of the U.S. Sioux Center IA reported 42 inches of snow on the ground, a state record. (20th-22nd) (The Weather Channel)

 

1971: One of the worst snowstorms in Oklahoma history dumped up to 3 feet of snow on northwest Oklahoma from February 20nd to February 22. By the time the snow ended on the 22nd, the city of Buffalo had 36 inches of snow on the ground, setting the state record for storm-total snowfall. Winds of 30 to 50 mph caused snowdrifts up to 20 feet high. Follett, Texas, picked up 26 inches while Amarillo recorded 14 inches.

1986 - A twelve siege of heavy rain and snow, which produced widespread flooding and mudslides across northern and central California, finally came to an end. The storm caused more than 400 million dollars property damage. Bucks Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada Range, received 49.6 inches of rain during the twelve day period. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm moving northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico began to spread heavy snow across the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Thunderstorms in northern Florida produced wind gusts to 65 mph in Alachua County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Dry weather prevailed across the nation, with windy conditions from the Central Rockies to northern New England. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Cleveland OH, and reached 63 mph at Erie PA. Winds in the Central Rockies gusted to 120 mph at Mines Peak CO and Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold arctic air into the north central U.S. produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with heavy snow near Lake Michigan. Totals in northwest Indiana ranged up to 24 inches at Gary, and up to 16 inches buried northeastern Illinois. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from southern Mississippi to North Carolina. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado just prior to dawn which touched down near Opp AL injuring ten persons and causing half a million dollars damage. Thunderstorm winds injured four persons south of Troy AL, and five people at Columbus GA. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 76 mph at Dothan AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: Seven tornadoes struck east-central Florida late on this day and early on the 23rd. Three of the tornadoes were rated F3 on the Fujita scale. Twenty-four people were killed in Kissimmee alone. A total of 42 people were killed, 265 injured, and the total damage was $106 million.

 

[SACRUS]

 

More on the 1773 freeze cold sabbath .    

https://wxhistory.medium.com/cold-sabbath-1773-9e46b0dd59f7

 

 

1987 Nor;easter

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agree 100%.

I look at 13/14 as a shorter duration, higher snowfall slightly warmer version of 93/94. The next time we have a similar setup we will likely compare to 13/14 and see the same differences. 

funny it recurred at a 20 year interval, although you could say 03/04 was similar to it.

so a 10 year recurrence?

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at the MJO, looks like a pretty high amplitude wave in phases 2 and 3. Hopefully moved on so we finally have a warm April.

 

yes this is what I'm thinking too- a very warm April and May.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1997)
NYC:  69 (1997)
LGA: 70 (1997)



Lows:

EWR: 8 (1963)
NYC: 8 (1963)
LGA: 9 (1963)

 

Historical:

 

1773 - The memorable "Cold Sabbath" in New England history. Many persons froze extremities while going to church. (David Ludlum)

1936 - Although heat and dust prevailed in the spring and summer, early 1936 brought record cold to parts of the U.S. Sioux Center IA reported 42 inches of snow on the ground, a state record. (20th-22nd) (The Weather Channel)

 

1971: One of the worst snowstorms in Oklahoma history dumped up to 3 feet of snow on northwest Oklahoma from February 20nd to February 22. By the time the snow ended on the 22nd, the city of Buffalo had 36 inches of snow on the ground, setting the state record for storm-total snowfall. Winds of 30 to 50 mph caused snowdrifts up to 20 feet high. Follett, Texas, picked up 26 inches while Amarillo recorded 14 inches.

1986 - A twelve siege of heavy rain and snow, which produced widespread flooding and mudslides across northern and central California, finally came to an end. The storm caused more than 400 million dollars property damage. Bucks Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada Range, received 49.6 inches of rain during the twelve day period. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm moving northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico began to spread heavy snow across the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Thunderstorms in northern Florida produced wind gusts to 65 mph in Alachua County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Dry weather prevailed across the nation, with windy conditions from the Central Rockies to northern New England. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Cleveland OH, and reached 63 mph at Erie PA. Winds in the Central Rockies gusted to 120 mph at Mines Peak CO and Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold arctic air into the north central U.S. produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with heavy snow near Lake Michigan. Totals in northwest Indiana ranged up to 24 inches at Gary, and up to 16 inches buried northeastern Illinois. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from southern Mississippi to North Carolina. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado just prior to dawn which touched down near Opp AL injuring ten persons and causing half a million dollars damage. Thunderstorm winds injured four persons south of Troy AL, and five people at Columbus GA. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 76 mph at Dothan AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: Seven tornadoes struck east-central Florida late on this day and early on the 23rd. Three of the tornadoes were rated F3 on the Fujita scale. Twenty-four people were killed in Kissimmee alone. A total of 42 people were killed, 265 injured, and the total damage was $106 million.

 

wow 1997 hit 70 and then we had the April Fools Day snowstorm more than a month later.

[TJW014]

Low of 19 this morning. Should get to the mid-40s. Some nice swell pivoting in from an offshore low. 5-8 footers. Might wetsuit up and catch a couple waves, but not looking forward to 42* water.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

Low of 19 this morning. Should get to the mid-40s. Some nice swell pivoting in from an offshore low. 5-8 footers. Might wetsuit up and catch a couple waves, but not looking forward to 42* water.

it's nice to see the sun again today

[jconsor]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The CFSv2 is now moving into its skillful range. Its March outlook has shifted toward Cluster 4 of the strong ENSO cases provided previously.

Cluster 4 is the PDO- case from 1973. Previously, the CFSv2 had favored a warmer version of Cluster 1, which had warmth across the northern tier of the CONUS.

CFSv2 500 mb Forecast:

CFSv2 Temperature Forecast:

Evolution of CFSv2 Forecasts:

Key Takeaways:

• A warmer than normal March continues to be favored in the Northeast, including the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions (majority of ENSO clusters and evolving CFSv2 guidance)
• Based on strong ENSO climatology, the March 11-24 period might offer the remaining window of opportunity for some cold and/or snow. The latest ECMWF weekly guidance has the coldest anomalies relative to normal in the closing 2 weeks of the month, but the weeklies lack skill at that timeframe. Until one is closer to the forecast period and there is both skill and consensus on the guidance, it makes sense to defer to climatology.
• The potential stratospheric warming event could be a "final warming" event. Such events typically do not have the same response as other stratospheric warming events.
• ENSO Cluster 4 (PDO-) favors below normal snowfall in the Northeast. Based on the latest guidance, the probability that Central Park could fail to reach 10" snow for a record second consecutive winter has increased.

 

 

Yes, within 10 days of the upcoming month is the CFS's more skillful phase.  But much of that skill hinges on getting the tropical convection/MJO pattern correct.  CFS tends to progress the MJO eastward too slowly beyond 7 days.  Look how different it is vs. EPS and GEFS even in the 8-14 day period!  CFS hangs the -VP anomalies back over far e. Africa and w. IO, whereas GEFS and EPS progress them eastward into the e. IO and Maritime Continent.

Looking at longer-range hovmollers, CFS continues to progress the MJO eastward sluggishly, in a manner that to my eyes doesn't make sense.  It has the MJO in phases 4 and 5 in late Mar.  Meanwhile, the extended GEFS and EPS have the MJO progressing into phases 8 and 1 by late Mar.  The implications are very different!  The phase 4 and 5 composites largely support the CFS's warm forecast for the second half of Mar. The phase 1 and 8 composites favor a -NAO, western N. America ridging and eastern US troughing, which would suggest normal to colder than normal temps in the second half of Mar. 

The forecast SSW event in early Mar should have a significant influence in prolonging blocking near Greenland/-NAO in mid to late Mar.  I am not sure that this stratospheric warming will behave like a final warming in terms of its influence, given how strong it is forecast to be and how early (EPS indicates the warming peaking on Mar 6-7, which would be the second earliest final warming in the past 40+ years).  

I agree that Mar 1-10 will feature well above normal temps in the NE US.  Mar 11-15 should see a transition period, and in the second half of Mar I would expect slightly below normal temps. The large magnitude of the warm anomalies Mar 1-10 will likely make it tough for the month as a whole to average below normal.   But still, I think the CFS forecast for the second half of the month is highly questionable.

I would expect the 500 mb/sfc temp pattern for the last half of Mar to be close to a blend of clusters 2 and 3.  Cluster 4 (which the CFS forecast is indicating) is close to the prevailing pattern since Dec.

[Allsnow]

I still think their is strong support for a cold spell in mid March but by that point who cares…

 

warmth starts next week for ext period 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I still think their is strong support for a cold spell in mid March but by that point who cares…

 

warmth starts next week for ext period 

By then averages are 50-55 so you'd need some decent cold to get anything-and there's zero cold anywhere so good luck with that...

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

By then averages are 50-55 so you'd need some decent cold to get anything-and there's zero cold anywhere so good luck with that...

40-45 is still below avg. I’m not forecasting March 2018 to walk through the door. Why does everything have to surround epic cold/snow predictions with you? 

[MANDA]

Off topic for this thread but I'll post it here since the weather is quiet.

For those of you who were fans of Alan Kasper back in the day you will like this.

A friend of mine sent me this link so I am passing it along.  Lots of great memories.

I worked weekends at WCBS late 1983 to late 85 and Alan had left by then.  Wish I had gotten to meet him.  A Legend.

What came after him not so much.

Here is link:

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

40-45 is still below avg. I’m not forecasting March 2018 to walk through the door. Why does everything have to surround epic cold/snow predictions with you? 

who said anything about epic cold...my point is when you go back and look at our big March snow storms they are usually preceded by an arctic outbreak.   

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Off topic for this thread but I'll post it here since the weather is quiet.

For those of you who were fans of Alan Kasper back in the day you will like this.

A friend of mine sent me this link so I am passing it along.  Lots of great memories.

I worked weekends at WCBS late 1983 to late 85 and Alan had left by then.  Wish I had gotten to meet him.  A Legend.

What came after him not so much.

Here is link:

 

Kasper was so far ahead of his time. His updates on the mixing line and radar during a storm on the radio were a great source of information 

[MANDA]

Here is a link I had sent to NJ101.5 that I had come across years ago. 

Still have great audio clips of Alan from his TV days, Hurricane Belle, Blizzard of 78 and some other events.

https://nj1015.com/vintage-footage-of-weatherman-alan-kasper-video/

Only a few good on air Meteorologists around today, but Alan was one of a kind in his delivery.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

who said anything about epic cold...my point is when you go back and look at our big March snow storms they are usually preceded by an arctic outbreak.   

Don’t even go that far, just go back and read my post. I said nothing about arctic air or March snow. I’m not sure why you’re putting words in my mouth. You can be below avg in March without artic air and big snow 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Kasper was so far ahead of his time. His updates on the mixing line and radar during storm on the radio were a great source of information 

If you watch the video you will hear how he had to fight management at WCBS to a degree to educate people and not dumb things down.  You'll never see anything like that today.  Most of the time he had to do it in under 90 seconds.

He was also great at NJ101.5.  I suspected at the time he was shown the door but he confirmed that last night on the podcast.  Wake up at mid-night, drive an hour to work to start at 2am then leave for home at 10am.  For 25 YEARS!  He loved what he did.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Don’t even go that far, just go back and read my post. I said nothing about arctic air or March snow. I’m not sure why you’re putting words in my mouth. You can be below avg in March without artic air and big snow 

wasn't trying to do that...simply stating that below normal in mid-late March won't cut it for snow/cold like it would Dec-Feb...