snowman19 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Here we go again lol Yep. Now it’s “mid-March onwards”. How many times is this now? Just keep kicking the can down the road…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Now it’s “mid-March onwards”. How many times is this now? Just keep kicking the can down the road…. some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao Yup, 20.5", but realize I was pretty lucky. The past 42 days I've had just about 29" of snow making this winter feel not as terrible as it was. About 15+ of those days were totally snow covered as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao so what though? Whole winter has been running 5 above normal. Don’t you find that alarming? most of us had a snowy week in January and a snowy week in February. That’s your winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: some places in central NJ got 20” of snow in a week. stop it lmao Lol @the_other_guy Apparently a freak mesoscale, narrow band means all the February hype verified!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: so what though? Whole winter has been running 5 above normal. Don’t you find that alarming? most of us had a snowy week in January and a snowy week in February. That’s your winter In reality we'd probably get a cooldown but with average temps 50-55 by then and zero arctic air available it would just be stormy/wet best case....could always be a one off event but with such a mild background state nationwide (Think 01-02 or 11-12) nothing would be where the betting money should go.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: The Pacific has been much more important for us than than anything happening with the stratosphere or the -NAO. Next week we’ll see our strongest -PNA trough since last spring. So it looks like a warm pattern for us from late February into early March. If a more -NAO pattern develops by mid-March, then it will come down to the Pacific again. If that -PNA trough dominates, then it will be warm like last March was with the -PNA -NAO. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Lol @the_other_guy Apparently a freak mesoscale, narrow band means all the February hype verified!! i never said it verified. it busted pretty bad. but to say that the can has been kicked the whole winter is quite disingenuous some saw two significant events in a week… the immediate NYC area isn’t representative of the whole metro region 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Pacific has been much more important for us than than anything happening with the stratosphere or the -NAO. Next week we’ll see our strongest -PNA trough since last spring. So it looks like a warm pattern for us from late February into early March. If a more -NAO pattern develops by mid-March, then it will come down to the Pacific again. If that -PNA trough dominates, then it will be warm like last March was with the -PNA -NAO. Not only that, look at where all the arctic air is….in Eurasia on the complete opposite side of the pole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Until we see wholesale Pac improvements it's going to be rough sledding. Same goes for next winter.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Until we see wholesale Pac improvements it's going to be rough sledding. Same goes for next winter.... Based on today's pattern you forecasting next winter? This pattern can flip on a dime. Don't bet on it. WX/PT 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said: Based on today's pattern you forecasting next winter? This pattern can flip on a dime. Don't bet on it. WX/PT Agreed-but a bad Pac has done us in for 3 yrs for the most part. Hoping for better results next year but thinking we might be in a bad stretch for the PAC(ie lots of MJO 4-5-6) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 65 degrees here in Chicago right now. They can thank me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: wait is this going to screw with our total solar eclipse? it better not.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, it'll be an uphill battle to get snow, but it's happened before. 1998 and 1983 both had abnormal snowfalls... 1983 had this in the southeast during the last week of March Do you have the map for the late April snowfall in 1983? I think that was more anomalous than this, JFK got 2" of snow on April 20, 1983! And was followed by our hottest summer prior to the 90s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Tremendous gathering of robins in the brush at my property. They are looking at the snow cover and wondering… I love winter and prolonged snow cover, but the influx of robins are usually a harbinger that spring is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Here we go again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Tremendous gathering of robins in the brush at my property. They are looking at the snow cover and wondering… I love winter and prolonged snow cover, but the influx of robins are usually a harbinger that spring is upon us. Yes I have noticed a few more birds here of late. The end is coming and probably quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yes I have noticed a few more birds here of late. The end is coming and probably quickly. Same here....lots more bird activity than usual for this early in the season. I think most I've seen at this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I've heard spring birds all winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Here we go again lol Here we snow again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 A milder pattern is now developing. Aside from a brief push of cooler air during the coming weekend, temperatures should remain generally above normal through the remainder of February. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. Little or no additional snowfall is likely in the New York City or Philadelphia areas through the remainder of February. Overall, a very warm winter is nearing an end. As warm as the winter has been in the New York City area, it has been even warmer in the Great Lakes Region and Northern Plains. Fargo is on track to beat its old winter record by more than 4°. Moreover, Winter 2023-24 could be Fargo's first winter where two months saw the temperature fail to drop below 0°. Milwaukee, Minneapolis, and Grand Forks are also on track to record their warmest winter on record. All the above sites have climate records that extend back into the 19th century. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade. The SOI was +6.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.157 today. On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.808 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.869 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.8° (3.9° above normal). Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.3°-40.6°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. It would also be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On 2/1/2024 at 11:09 AM, donsutherland1 said: That it will turn colder is likely. Some of the other outcomes depend on a range of factors (cross-polar flow, shortwaves, blocking, synoptic pattern/details, etc.), leading to greater uncertainty. Thus, they were listed as key uncertainties. Best guess: A 2-3 week period with generally colder than normal temperatures (probably running into the first week in March). No single digits in Central Park, but one or more days with lows in the teens. Several light snow events with perhaps a moderate event (3"-4"), which would wind up being this season's biggest event. No big events of 6" or more. All of this will culminate in a winter that will wind up being warmer than normal (likely including February's having a warm anomaly, in large part, due to the very warm first 10-14 days) and much below normal seasonal snowfall by the conclusion of the snow season. This guess is based on the combination of the guidance and statistical outcomes. It should be noted that 46-day maps or 46-day charts have very little skill overall in terms of specifics. Indeed, if they did, the NYC area wouldn't be looking at the distinct possibility of seeing an unprecedented second consecutive season with less than 10" snowfall. I think we'll avoid that outcome, but should February wind up less snowy than I'm thinking, then my thinking on that matter will likely be wrong. Although a cooler period developed on February 13th, it ended today. I had expected that it could extend into the first week of March. In addition, New York City saw no readings with lows in the teens (the coldest weather was warmer than I had expected). Central Park saw a light and moderate snowfall. JFK Airport saw a moderate and significant snowfall. LaGuardia Airport experienced two moderate snowfalls. The cooler period ended largely in line with strong ENSO climatology in February, which often has seen the closing 7-10 days wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. The latest ECMWF weeklies see warmer than normal conditions running into at least the second week of March. Strong ENSO climatology has typically seen a cool-down before mid-March that continues just past the Spring Equinox. Afterward, it turns warmer. Given lack of model skill at such distant timeframes, the outcome beyond the first week of March remains speculative. Despite a possible stratospheric warming event, it's entirely plausible that the Polar Vortex could remain over Eurasia and cooler weather could be relatively short-lived. All in all, the odds may somewhat lean toward a warmer than normal March. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: look at the decade before with the 33.2" average and you can see why we likely regress to under the ~29" 30-year average this decade Not just that but 5 straight 30+ inch seasons to close out the 2010s and this is Central Park measurements. We were truly spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s so eventually the pendulum was going to swing in the other direction and ... here we are. I don't think this is the new norm snowwise, it's just a down cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Based on today's pattern you forecasting next winter? This pattern can flip on a dime. Don't bet on it. WX/PT It really can’t when you look at the SSTs globally, North Atlantic and the Maritime. Nothing is flipping on a dime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said: Not just that but 5 straight 30+ inch seasons to close out the 2010s and this is Central Park measurements. We were truly spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s so eventually the pendulum was going to swing in the other direction and ... here we are. I don't think this is the new norm snowwise, it's just a down cycle. if the SSTs are the reason for it, it's not a cycle, because we are in completely uncharted territory with SST this warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: It really can’t when you look at the SSTs globally, North Atlantic and the Maritime. Nothing is flipping on a dime Right, this is completely uncharted territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Right, this is completely uncharted territory. As long as we have this marine heatwave off Japan and near Indonesia I’d be down on any cold/snowy winter chance here. Hopefully we see that change later this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: As long as we have this marine heatwave off Japan and near Indonesia I’d be down on any cold/snowy winter chance here. Hopefully we see that change later this year. I'd like to see some research into what caused this heatwave and why did it specifically happen in those waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: As long as we have this marine heatwave off Japan and near Indonesia I’d be down on any cold/snowy winter chance here. Hopefully we see that change later this year. Need canes, many 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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