SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Down to 20 now to 33, some lower level clouds off the water E->W this morning. Overall warming the next 7 - 10 days with brief cool down Sat into Sun (this weekend) and again Mar 2-3. near to much above normal in the period. beyond there continues to look warmer into the first week of next month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Records: Highs: EWR: 80 (2018) NYC: 78 (2018) LGA: 79 (2018) Lows: EWR: 6 (1959) NYC: 5 (1968) LGA: 6 (1968) Historical: 1918 - A spectacular chinook wind at Granville, ND, caused the temperature to spurt from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) 1935 - Frequent duststorms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality occurred on this date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba CO, due to poor visibility. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at Langdon, ND, climbed above zero for the first time in six weeks. Readings never got above freezing during all three winter months. (David Ludlum) 1971 - An outbreak of tornadoes hit northeastern Louisiana and northern and central Mississippi. The tornadoes claimed 121 lives, including 110 in Mississippi. Three tornadoes accounted for 118 of the deaths. There are 1600 persons injured, 900 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, and total damage was 19 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1971 - Elk City, OK, was buried under 36 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. (David Ludlum) 1971: A tornado outbreak struck portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeastern United States on February 21–22nd. The two-day tornado outbreak produced at least 19 tornadoes, probably several more, primarily brief events in rural areas, and killed 123 people across three states. The tornadoes "virtually leveled" entire communities in the state of Mississippi. 1987 - Low pressure over central California produced gale force winds along the coast, and produced thunderstorms which pelted Stockton, Oakland and San Jose with small hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A storm tracking across southern Canada produced high winds in the north central U.S., with gusted to 90 mph reported at Boulder CO. The high winds snapped trees and power lines, and ripped shingles off roofs. The Kentucky Fried Chicken Bucket was blown off their store in Havre MT. An eighteen foot fiberglass bear was blown off its stand along a store front in west Cody WY, and sailed east into downtown Cody before the owners were able to transport their wandering bear back home in a horse trailer. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the morning hours spread severe weather across Georgia and the Carolinas. Strong thunderstorm winds caused one death and thirteen injuries in North Carolina, and another four injuries in South Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Overnight thunderstorms produced heavy rain in central Texas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 2.80 inches at Camp Verde, with 2.20 inches reported at Leakey. Thunderstorms early in the day produced high winds in southern Texas, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Alice. Daytime thunderstorms in eastern Texas drenched Rosenberg with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: look at the decade before with the 33.2" average and you can see why we likely regress to under the ~29" 30-year average this decade 100 percent agree. The same happened after the 55 through 69 epic period, which lead to the 30 year period where CPK only exceeded average 4 times (which is mind boggling when thinking about it - 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years). I am personally going to compare this decade to the 1980s, which averaged 19.74. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs and other models were showing the AO tanking for a while. It went negative but never tanked. Big failure It think it may be related to these more frequent south based blocks in recent years not having the same staying power as the older ones which where located closer to the Arctic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: It think it may be related to these more frequent south based blocks in recent years not having the same staying power as the older ones which where located closer to the Arctic. I remember someone posted that there is a difference between a true NAO block and an "atmospheric furnace" resulting from an RNA pattern. Basically bootleg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs and other models were showing the AO tanking for a while. It went negative but never tanked. Big failure One thing I always do is look at the previous dips in the presented period. It had not dipped below that threshold. Perhaps the predicted SSW never materialized or coupled like it was expected to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m sure you would have said that in 97/98 when NyC was at .5” and on the way to the record only to have that 5” storm in March. March is volatile and probably the hardest month to forecast far out due to the shortening wave lengths. It’s not over yet. I dont like the opening week. Too warm. But we shall see. Start to run out of innings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I remember someone posted that there is a difference between a true NAO block and an "atmospheric furnace" resulting from an RNA pattern. Basically bootleg. These more south based blocks could be related to the record Atlantic SSTs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, the_other_guy said: I was convinced then, and now that that was a gift to the rescuers at the World Trade Center. They had originally planned to build a giant tent over the site so they could continue recovery. it was never needed due to the warmth I remember there was also a hurricane just offshore that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: One thing I always do is look at the previous dips in the presented period. It had not dipped below that threshold. Perhaps the predicted SSW never materialized or coupled like it was expected to. in reality most of these go into Asia, not here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: 100 percent agree. The same happened after the 55 through 69 epic period, which lead to the 30 year period where CPK only exceeded average 4 times (which is mind boggling when thinking about it - 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years). I am personally going to compare this decade to the 1980s, which averaged 19.74. those 4 were some of the best of all time though its worth it for the misery of the other years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 80 (2018) NYC: 78 (2018) LGA: 79 (2018) Lows: EWR: 6 (1959) NYC: 5 (1968) LGA: 6 (1968) Historical: 1918 - A spectacular chinook wind at Granville, ND, caused the temperature to spurt from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) 1935 - Frequent duststorms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality occurred on this date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba CO, due to poor visibility. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at Langdon, ND, climbed above zero for the first time in six weeks. Readings never got above freezing during all three winter months. (David Ludlum) 1971 - An outbreak of tornadoes hit northeastern Louisiana and northern and central Mississippi. The tornadoes claimed 121 lives, including 110 in Mississippi. Three tornadoes accounted for 118 of the deaths. There are 1600 persons injured, 900 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, and total damage was 19 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1971 - Elk City, OK, was buried under 36 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. (David Ludlum) 1971: A tornado outbreak struck portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeastern United States on February 21–22nd. The two-day tornado outbreak produced at least 19 tornadoes, probably several more, primarily brief events in rural areas, and killed 123 people across three states. The tornadoes "virtually leveled" entire communities in the state of Mississippi. 1987 - Low pressure over central California produced gale force winds along the coast, and produced thunderstorms which pelted Stockton, Oakland and San Jose with small hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A storm tracking across southern Canada produced high winds in the north central U.S., with gusted to 90 mph reported at Boulder CO. The high winds snapped trees and power lines, and ripped shingles off roofs. The Kentucky Fried Chicken Bucket was blown off their store in Havre MT. An eighteen foot fiberglass bear was blown off its stand along a store front in west Cody WY, and sailed east into downtown Cody before the owners were able to transport their wandering bear back home in a horse trailer. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the morning hours spread severe weather across Georgia and the Carolinas. Strong thunderstorm winds caused one death and thirteen injuries in North Carolina, and another four injuries in South Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Overnight thunderstorms produced heavy rain in central Texas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 2.80 inches at Camp Verde, with 2.20 inches reported at Leakey. Thunderstorms early in the day produced high winds in southern Texas, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Alice. Daytime thunderstorms in eastern Texas drenched Rosenberg with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) What was the high on this date in 2018 at JFK? close to 80 everywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, bluewave said: That was the only time NYC had a 5” snowstorm so close to a string of 80° days. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Snowfall 1998-03-22 36 30 5.0 1998-03-23 47 32 0.0 1998-03-24 49 34 0.0 1998-03-25 50 34 0.0 1998-03-26 67 40 0.0 1998-03-27 83 56 0.0 1998-03-28 80 63 0.0 1998-03-29 81 62 0.0 1998-03-30 82 59 0.0 1998-03-31 86 66 0.0 but it happened in 1996 for Long Island? April 1996 snowstorm to 80 degrees? April 2003 snowstorm to 80 degrees? April 2018 snowstorm to 80 degrees? Which of these comes closest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: in reality most of these go into Asia, not here every one in awhile it works- 09-10 and 17-18 but you're right it's hyped like hell then the cold goes to the other side of the globe.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I know it's not completely over, however it's not look great for more snowfall. That would put this decade at 3 below average snowfall winters, only better than last years total. Average this decade before this winter was 19.6 and will take a hit when this year is ultimately added. how come the years cant be seen in these tables? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What was the high on this date in 2018 at JFK? close to 80 everywhere? 65 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: We are lucky-given that we've had about 2-3 weeks of actual winter 15 inches of snow is a miracle...other dogs like 01-02 or 11-12, 19-20 had low single digit totals and last year too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: how come the years cant be seen in these tables? Here is the location monthlyseasonalsnowfall (1) (4)(1).pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Really cool visible satellite today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Next Wednesday looks very warm. Maybe too many clouds for 70, but at least well up into the 60s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Next Wednesday looks very warm. Maybe too many clouds for 70, but at least well up into the 60s. Great. Bring it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Next Wednesday looks very warm. Maybe too many clouds for 70, but at least well up into the 60s. Can't wait. Snowless cold is useless. Basically all of next week looks mild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Here we go again lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Here we go again lol it wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in mid to late March. whether that means winter weather or not is a different story, but it wouldn't be surprising at all IMO 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 you can see the resemblance to the patterns before the 2018 and 2023 blocking events. pretty similar stuff 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This El Niño is finally fading as the models have the strongest -PNA drop since last spring. If the clouds end up dominating next week, then the highs will only max out in upper 50s to low 60s. But a slower frontal passage and more breaks of sun will allow the warm spots to make a run on 70°. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it wouldn't shock me to see blocking return in mid to late March. whether that means winter weather or not is a different story, but it wouldn't be surprising at all IMO Not much cold air around (snow/ice cover lacking nationwide) and by mid march normals are in the 50's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not much cold air around (snow/ice cover lacking nationwide) and by mid march normals are in the 50's... yeah, it'll be an uphill battle to get snow, but it's happened before. 1998 and 1983 both had abnormal snowfalls... 1983 had this in the southeast during the last week of March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, it'll be an uphill battle to get snow, but it's happened before. 1998 and 1983 both had abnormal snowfalls... 1983 had this in the southeast during the last week of March 1998 ruined NYC's snowfall futility record-they had .5 of an inch and then got he 5 inch slop fest on 3/22. Was in the 80's for a few day very late March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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