EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Weeklies so entertainment for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Weeklies so entertainment for now. This storm was enough dude, if it doesn't snow another flake this season, it'll still be a good season. It sure feels and looks like winter now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This storm was enough dude, if it doesn't snow another flake this season, it'll still be a good season. It sure feels and looks like winter now I just want CPK to reach 10. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This storm was enough dude, if it doesn't snow another flake this season, it'll still be a good season. It sure feels and looks like winter now We are still below average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I just want CPK to reach 10. You're never going to call it NYC are you, even though Forky made a thread about why it should be called NYC lol. It's just a park, it doesn't even properly represent the climate of the city. No one should take their temperatures, wind speeds, or snowfall seriously. None of them are ever accurate. Honestly they should just shut the weather equipment down and use the 2 airports for obs. Since they are never going to measure snowfall properly and no one wants to properly trim the foliage why not just ignore their obs or better yet, have the location shut down for weather obs? We have 60 years of data from the two airports-- it's plenty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We are still below average "average" is a magical number that doesn't mean anything, it changes from decade to decade. It's good enough to get a few snowy events and a few wintry weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 This season gets a D from me so far, maybe D-. Since I’m at about half of average now it’s not a F but hard to put it any better when I’m still below 20”. Also very warm and we’re going back to the torch next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: This season gets a D from me so far, maybe D-. Since I’m at about half of average now it’s not a F but hard to put it any better when I’m still below 20”. Also very warm and we’re going back to the torch next week. Agreed. Maybe I’d go C- as the week in January along with this one managed to feel wintry. But two weeks out of 12 doesn’t cut it. Nice snow shower at the moment in wading river, 31f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This season gets a D from me so far, maybe D-. Since I’m at about half of average now it’s not a F but hard to put it any better when I’m still below 20”. Also very warm and we’re going back to the torch next week. Mild weather after a possible storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The setup next week is God awfulThat must be exhilarating. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 46 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This season gets a D from me so far, maybe D-. Since I’m at about half of average now it’s not a F but hard to put it any better when I’m still below 20”. Also very warm and we’re going back to the torch next week. hopefully it's mild and sunny not back to the rainy crap again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 47 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This season gets a D from me so far, maybe D-. Since I’m at about half of average now it’s not a F but hard to put it any better when I’m still below 20”. Also very warm and we’re going back to the torch next week. C- for having two 4"+ snowstorms and snow on top of snow which is rare around here. I've given up on December as a winter month and so what we got is about as much as we should expect anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/16/2024 at 12:16 PM, Snowstorms said: I believe that WPAC warm pool may have contributed towards that as @bluewave mentions every so often. Yeah, pretty ridiculous heat in that part of the world keeps reloading the forcing leading to more jet extensions and warmth for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 You're never going to call it NYC are you, even though Forky made a thread about why it should be called NYC lol. It's just a park, it doesn't even properly represent the climate of the city. No one should take their temperatures, wind speeds, or snowfall seriously. None of them are ever accurate. Honestly they should just shut the weather equipment down and use the 2 airports for obs. Since they are never going to measure snowfall properly and no one wants to properly trim the foliage why not just ignore their obs or better yet, have the location shut down for weather obs? We have 60 years of data from the two airports-- it's plenty. Why would you put more stock in weather reporting stations in a sea of asphalt and concrete like an airport than the idiots who run the Central Park station? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 An energetic clipper system brought light to moderate snow across the region, along with a narrow band of very heavy snow. Accumulations included: Baltimore: 0.1" Holland Twp, NJ: 13.0" Islip: 3.4" Macungie, PA: 14.8" New Brunswick, NJ: 11.0" New York City-Central Park: 2.0" New York City-JFK Airport: 6.2" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 3.3" Newark: 4.2" Readington, NJ: 12.0" Washington, DC: 0.1" A cooler pattern remains in place. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. Milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region early next week. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -4.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.825 today. On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.680 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.990 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.0° (3.1° above normal). Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.0°-40.6°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. The probability that Winter 2023-2024 will have a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has increased in recent days. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Bring on spring! Love snow but ready for warmer days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: Why would you put more stock in weather reporting stations in a sea of asphalt and concrete like an airport than the idiots who run the Central Park station? . They don't report from a sea of asphalt though.... for example, JFK has been reporting snowfall totals more consistent with what's been seen in this area than Central Park, and on top of that both LGA and JFK have properly sited weather stations that accurately report both temperatures and wind speeds. The Central Park equipment isn't properly sited which shows after leaf out, it doesn't report wind speeds or temperature in line with properly sited equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: An energetic clipper system brought light to moderate snow across the region, along with a narrow band of very heavy snow. Accumulations included: Baltimore: 0.1" Holland Twp, NJ: 13.0" Islip: 3.4" Macungie, PA: 14.8" New Brunswick, NJ: 11.0" New York City-Central Park: 2.0" New York City-JFK Airport: 6.2" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 3.3" Newark: 4.2" Readington, NJ: 12.0" Washington, DC: 0.1" A cooler pattern remains in place. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. Milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region early next week. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -4.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.825 today. On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.680 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.990 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.0° (3.1° above normal). Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.0°-40.6°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. The probability that Winter 2023-2024 will have a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has increased in recent days. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth. Don, how much did Philly, Allentown and Mt Pocono get in the storm and where are we at seasonally so far at the park plus the three local airports? Is JFK the only one in double digits so far? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, pretty ridiculous heat in that part of the world keeps reloading the forcing leading to more jet extensions and warmth for us. Wow 99 degrees on an island in the Pacific is pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: We are still below average Like -20. Not even close. 1/3 of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, pretty ridiculous heat in that part of the world keeps reloading the forcing leading to more jet extensions and warmth for us. You would think that so much convection there all the time would cool those waters down but I guess not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don, how much did Philly, Allentown and Mt Pocono get in the storm and where are we at seasonally so far at the park plus the three local airports? Is JFK the only one in double digits so far? Thanks! Allentown: 5.7" (much more south of the City) Philadelphia: 2.3" Mount Pocono had 3.1" as of 7 am, but I'm not sure if that will be the final figure. New York City locations: Central Park: 2.0" (season total: 7.5") JFK Airport: 6.2" (season total: 12.8") LaGuardia Airport: 3.3" (season total: 10.5:) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Allentown: 5.7" (much more south of the City) Philadelphia: 2.3" Mount Pocono had 3.1" as of 7 am, but I'm not sure if that will be the final figure. New York City locations: Central Park: 2.0" (season total: 7.5") JFK Airport: 6.2" (season total: 12.8") LaGuardia Airport: 3.3" (season total: 10.5:) Thanks so much Don, so Central Park is the only official location in the city left to hit double digits on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You would think that so much convection there all the time would cool those waters down but I guess not. Maybe they suffer from very high dew points too. If you wanted a place to dump liquid helium to cool down the waters, that would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Like -20. Not even close. 1/3 of normal You have to be happy we actually got a winter this year though, so much better than last year. Hopefully this will keep the bugs in check this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, LibertyBell said: Thanks so much Don, so Central Park is the only official location in the city left to hit double digits on the season. It is. And if the GFS is right, there could be few opportunities possibly through the remainder of this month. Some ensemble members provide some opportunities. The ECMWF and CFS2 weeklies favor very mild readings as February concludes, so next weekend might be the last chance for awhile. The probability of the weekend event producing accumulating snow in Central Park has fallen over the past day of guidance, but skill is still fairly low at the timeframe involved. 2/17 18z GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It is. And if the GFS is right, there could be few opportunities possibly through the remainder of this month. Some ensemble members provide some opportunities. The ECMWF and CFS2 weeklies favor very mild readings as February concludes, so next weekend might be the last chance for awhile. The probability of the weekend event producing accumulating snow in Central Park has fallen over the past day of guidance, but skill is still fairly low at the timeframe involved. 2/17 18z GFS: We might also have chances in March, but with the way March is opening, it's going to be a long shot, freak event after midmonth if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We might also have chances in March, but with the way March is opening, it's going to be a long shot, freak event after midmonth if it happens. Numerous strong El Niño events have seen snow in March and have turned colder for a time in the leadup to mid-March (generally weeks 2 through 3). Of course, there's no guarantee that the upcoming March will evolve in such fashion though the monthly guidance hints at an almost canonical ENSO map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I always figure high pressure will sit over deep snow packs in late winter, and there is a lot of snow on the ground in central to eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada, especially eastern NS and PEI. I would say watch for signals around 10-15 March for best chances of that one (perhaps) final event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Numerous strong El Niño events have seen snow in March and have turned colder for a time in the leadup to mid-March (generally weeks 2 through 3). Of course, there's no guarantee that the upcoming March will evolve in such fashion though the monthly guidance hints at an almost canonical ENSO map. was 93 an El Nino? we had some piddly events then a bigger one in Feb, followed by the superstorm in Mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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