February 2024

[EastonSN+]

Looks like our window ends approx the 26th. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking

The good news is that you and others thought the same exact thing for the previous thread the needle setup and how did that one work out ? IMO Hopefully in time this setup changes for the better for snow lovers until then we continue to track

[EastonSN+]

Would need to hold intensity and not gain latitude (ie GEFS) for any chance, however something to track.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

The good news is that you and others thought the same exact thing for the previous thread the needle setup and how did that one work out ? IMO Hopefully in time this setup changes for the better for snow lovers until then we continue to track

Good luck

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking

 

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warm temperatures could be a big issue near the coast.

 

Models will change so much but that's the next favorable threat. 

Long range modeling have been awful

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

The good news is that you and others thought the same exact thing for the previous thread the needle setup and how did that one work out ? IMO Hopefully in time this setup changes for the better for snow lovers until then we continue to track

Exactly

[EastonSN+]

Sometimes small things can make a good winter vs. a low snowfall one.

Fast PAC not allowing this to gain latitude/ northern stream too far ahead. The way it goes sometimes.

[Volcanic Winter]

@donsutherland1

What is Boston’s low temperature on the winter, Don? Seems like they’ve been in the same boat with temperatures, maybe even a bit more-so than I would’ve anticipated. My winter low is only 17, average at the end of Jan is 20… Absolute struggle to even get near it.

Also what is Boston’s DJF average thus far?

Thanks, much appreciated!

[donsutherland1]

While the region will see light snow late tonight into early tomorrow and a brief shot of colder but not exceptionally cold air, Central Park remains on course for its case with two consecutive winters with an average temperature of 40° or above. The closest such two-winter period was 2015-16 (41.0°) and 2016-17 (39.3°). LaGuardia Airport actually had winter mean temperatures of 40° or above in both those winters. Central Park's period of record goes back to 1869.

40° or above winters are largely a recent phenomenon in the New York City area and the region's winter temperature has been warming.

The periods of record for the above stations begin as follows: Central Park: January 1869; JFK Airport: July 1948; and, LaGuardia Airport: October 1939.

Previously, the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance were in strong agreement that a colder, but not severely cold pattern would continue into at least the first week of March. However, as the month advanced, that support on the guidance collapsed and a late February warmup more consistent with strong El Niño winters gained support.

The latest weekly guidance shows a very mild close to the month, which makes a 40° or above winter average temperature likely at Central Park and LaGuardia Airport. Both the 2/16 0z EPS and GEFS show February ending with high temperatures of 50° or above.

ECMWF Weekly Forecast:

CFSv2:

All three locations are experiencing a sustained warming of winters:

Central Park:

JFK Airport:

LaGuardia Airport:

As the warming continues, 30-year mean winter temperatures will likely cross the 37° threshold at which Mid-Atlantic locations south of the New York City area experienced a long-term decline in seasonal snowfall. Through Winter 2022-23, the 30-year average winter temperature in Central Park had reached 36.2°. Following Winter 2023-24, that figure will likely stand at 36.5°.

The climate models suggest that New York City will reach the 37° winter temperature average by the middle 2030s. That would result in 30-year seasonal snowfall declining to around 20". The very recent low snowfall winters are likely a combination of a bad cycle within internal variability and consequence of growing background warming. Therefore, it is possible that New York City is in the very early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall state. Even in a lower snowfall state, there will still be snowy winters, but those winters will become less frequent. Winters lacking much snowfall (10" or below) will grow more frequent.

As for this winter, it remains to be seen whether Central Park will record its first case of two consecutive winters with less than 10" of snowfall. Many strong El Niño winters have seen at least some measurable snowfall in March. Since 1950, there were three that did not: 1966, 1983, and 2020. 1983 had measurable snowfall in April.

[Snowlover11]

windy as hell crossing the TZ this morning, left over snow flying off trucks, trucks swerving in the wind…fun times

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@donsutherland1

What is Boston’s low temperature on the winter, Don? Seems like they’ve been in the same boat with temperatures, maybe even a bit more-so than I would’ve anticipated. My winter low is only 17, average at the end of Jan is 20… Absolute struggle to even get near it.

Also what is Boston’s DJF average thus far?

Thanks, much appreciated!

Its low temperature is 14°. If that holds, it would be the warmest such minimum temperature on record. The record of 13° was set during Winter 2001-02. 2019-20 had a winter minimum reading of 12°.

The winter mean temperature through February 15th is 36.9°, which is tied with 2022-23 for 4th highest through February 15th. The warmest winter was 2001-02 with a mean temperature of 37.9°. The current winter will become the seventh winter with a mean temperature of 36° or above. Six of those winters will have occurred since 2000. Winter 1932-33 is the lone exception.

[wdrag]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Models will change so much but that's the next favorable threat. 

Long range modeling have been awful

I have no answer except that I did. consider warmth coast and that why I think inside I95.  My take on all this, potential to separate a closed low at 500MB as this trough goes goes negative across PA/NJ infusing southern and multiple northern stream short waves.  If that happens, rain changes to wet snow coast.  A big IF and I'll leave it that that warmer replies on that occurrence will prevail, except for me as a forecaster, this closed low option at Mason Dixon line is on the table.  When it's ensemble denied with few or no closed low options, I'll admit it. 

[Volcanic Winter]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Its low temperature is 14°. If that holds, it would be the warmest such minimum temperature on record. The record of 13° was set during Winter 2001-02. 2019-20 had a winter minimum reading of 12°.

The winter mean temperature through February 15th is 36.9°, which is tied with 2022-23 for 4th highest through February 15th. The warmest winter was 2001-02 with a mean temperature of 37.9°. The current winter will become the seventh winter with a mean temperature of 36° or above. Six of those winters will have occurred since 2000. Winter 1932-33 is the lone exception.

You’re a treasure Don, thank you. 

[SACRUS]

 

36 mostly sunny and windy  gusts to 31 here.   Clipper brings light snow tonight in by midnight out by sunrise.   Overall colder than normal through the week into next weekend before moderating the last few days of the month.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While the region will see light snow late tonight into early tomorrow and a brief shot of colder but not exceptionally cold air, Central Park remains on course for its case with two consecutive winters with an average temperature of 40° or above. The closest such two-winter period was 2015-16 (41.0°) and 2016-17 (39.3°). LaGuardia Airport actually had winter mean temperatures of 40° or above in both those winters. Central Park's period of record goes back to 1869.

40° or above winters are largely a recent phenomenon in the New York City area and the region's winter temperature has been warming.

The periods of record for the above stations begin as follows: Central Park: January 1869; JFK Airport: July 1948; and, LaGuardia Airport: October 1939.

Previously, the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance were in strong agreement that a colder, but not severely cold pattern would continue into at least the first week of March. However, as the month advanced, that support on the guidance collapsed and a late February warmup more consistent with strong El Niño winters gained support.

The latest weekly guidance shows a very mild close to the month, which makes a 40° or above winter average temperature likely at Central Park and LaGuardia Airport. Both the 2/16 0z EPS and GEFS show February ending with high temperatures of 50° or above.

ECMWF Weekly Forecast:

CFSv2:

All three locations are experiencing a sustained warming of winters:

Central Park:

JFK Airport:

LaGuardia Airport:

As the warming continues, 30-year mean winter temperatures will likely cross the 37° threshold at which Mid-Atlantic locations south of the New York City area experienced a long-term decline in seasonal snowfall. Through Winter 2022-23, the 30-year average winter temperature in Central Park had reached 36.2°. Following Winter 2023-24, that figure will likely stand at 36.5°.

The climate models suggest that New York City will reach the 37° winter temperature average by the middle 2030s. That would result in 30-year seasonal snowfall declining to around 20". The very recent low snowfall winters are likely a combination of a bad cycle within internal variability and consequence of growing background warming. Therefore, it is possible that New York City is in the very early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall state. Even in a lower snowfall state, there will still be snowy winters, but those winters will become less frequent. Winters lacking much snowfall (10" or below) will grow more frequent.

As for this winter, it remains to be seen whether Central Park will record its first case of two consecutive winters with less than 10" of snowfall. Many strong El Niño winters have seen at least some measurable snowfall in March. Since 1950, there were three that did not: 1966, 1983, and 2020. 1983 had measurable snowfall in April.

Thanks Don. It will be interesting for CPK, if the clipper can come just close enough, they will be extremely close to 10 with a little more than a month to go. Pattern is hostile after the 26 however there seems to be one more threat before it arrives.

[BxEngine]

Straight up vanilla dippin dots fell from the sky last night. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like our window ends approx the 26th. 

Meanwhile no shocker the extended Euro flips the pattern again by 3/10...no shocker as no pattern has lasted over 14 days all winter long

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Meanwhile no shocker the extended Euro flips the pattern again by 3/10...no shocker as no pattern has lasted over 14 days all winter long

Gets tough by then, but stranger things have happened.   N and W still in the game til the end of March as well.

[North and West]

IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking

Weren’t the models having incredible problems in the lead up to this past week and led many astray? Like Capistrano, we can’t help ourselves but go back to them even when they’re just awful. It’s an abusive relationship.

They’re guides, but they’re far from infallible.


.

[North and West]

Straight up vanilla dippin dots fell from the sky last night. 

The snow of the future!


.

[Krs4Lfe]

Ryan Maue posted some maps showing the extent of the warmth across the nation from the pattern flip around March 1st. The EPS  and GEFS are the most bullish on this, with temperatures around +8 for the NYC area. GEPS is least bullish, with temperatures around neutral. That being said, all of them indicate a colder than normal (generally -5 to -10) across the west, including UT/NV/ID, and of course the west coast. Should lead to some good snows over there. 

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Ryan Maue posted some maps showing the extent of the warmth across the nation from the pattern flip around March 1st. The EPS  and GEFS are the most bullish on this, with temperatures around +8 for the NYC area. GEPS is least bullish, with temperatures around neutral. That being said, all of them indicate a colder than normal (generally -5 to -10) across the west, including UT/NV/ID, and of course the west coast. Should lead to some good snows over there. 

Its fairly crazy how mild the winter was basically for the entire nation despite the fact we never really had a true strong El Nino pattern at any point

[Snowstorms]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

Ridiculous warmth in Canada for the first half of February. 
 

 

Wow! I did not realize how warm the Prairies were running this month. That's insane. 1877-78 was also a powerful strong/super nino. Well if our source region is running warm with little to no snow cover, you can't expect to see any sustained cold further east. Which is why I was always skeptical of any pattern change that was being modelled. I don't know if you recall, but the models showed something similar back in early-mid Dec 2015 too, but it never materialized. 

So far February 2024 is running to be the warmest Feb on record in Toronto. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Straight up vanilla dippin dots fell from the sky last night. 

fact,,,, I actually scooped up a few and brought them inside to show my son,,,,looked EXACTLY like dipping dots or styrofoam

[Krs4Lfe]

32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its fairly crazy how mild the winter was basically for the entire nation despite the fact we never really had a true strong El Nino pattern at any point

Agreed, this was reminiscent of the 2016 strong El Niño, and other strong El Niños of the past. But this wasn’t a strong El Niño. So why was it so warm? Troubling for sure. Maybe due to the December pac jet extension, which torched December, not allowing snowcover and cold to be established. Same thing happened in early to mid Feb. 2 critical timeframes that we lost due to pac torch. Could that be the reason why ?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Agreed, this was reminiscent of the 2016 strong El Niño, and other strong El Niños of the past. But this wasn’t a strong El Niño. So why was it so warm? Troubling for sure. Maybe due to the December pac jet extension, which torched December, not allowing snowcover and cold to be established. Same thing happened in early to mid Feb. 2 critical timeframes that we lost due to pac torch. Could that be the reason why ?

 

Most likely yes, the fact Canada just was stupidly warm...even 09-10 it was not that cold of a winter at all outside of the southern tier of the US...Canada was largely torched that winter too

[Krs4Lfe]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Most likely yes, the fact Canada just was stupidly warm...even 09-10 it was not that cold of a winter at all outside of the southern tier of the US...Canada was largely torched that winter too

I would argue that the lack of snow across CONUS is not only due to warm Canada and warm north US, rather the fact that a fast PAC has also led to a lack of blocking in the north Atlantic, which is how the January systems moved out to sea, and the storm on Tuesday was such a quick mover. Slower movers would have allowed for slower storms with more snow, and for there to be less of a suppression risk like what happened in late Jan and early Feb. Lack of atlantic blocking led to OTS systems, or snowstorms that moved too quickly. That alone would have led to increased snow coverage and colder weather (snow begets snow), and would have led to less rainstorms over the region. 

[Krs4Lfe]

That being said, it doesn't fully explain how Central US became void of snow and cold this winter. It truly is incredible to see, but while December is usually not snowy for this region, December is quite snowy for Central US, and helps establish a critical snowpack. That did not happen this year, and we lost critical time, which was further damaged by a Pac extension during peak climo (early-mid Feb), which led to another torch over the Central region. 

[Snowstorms]

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Most likely yes, the fact Canada just was stupidly warm...even 09-10 it was not that cold of a winter at all outside of the southern tier of the US...Canada was largely torched that winter too

I beg to differ. This winter seems typical of a strong El Nino. It may not finish as a "super" El Nino but it's definitely a strong El Nino, similar to 1972-73 and 1965-66, both of which fell short of super status. 

December 2009 was well below average across most of western Canada. Jan 2010 was near average for the southern Prairies and February 2010 finished below as well. Polar opposite of this winter. The "source region" was much colder with a solid snow cover hence it led to more snow for you guys in the Mid Atlantic/East coast as the AO/NAO block suppressed every storm. The block kept all of northern Canada warm but that's normal in a strong blocking pattern. Quite different than this winter where most of Canada will finish above average driven by a warm Pacific.  

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=28011&timeframe=2&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2024&Day=1&Year=2009&Month=12#

See climate data in the link above. Regina averages -12.4/-14.7/-11.7C, respectively for DJF. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I beg to differ. This winter seems typical of a strong El Nino. It may not finish as a "super" El Nino but it's definitely a strong El Nino, similar to 1972-73 and 1965-66, both of which fell short of super status. 

December 2009 was well below average across most of western Canada. Jan 2010 was near average for the southern Prairies and February 2010 finished below as well. Polar opposite of this winter. The "source region" was much colder with a solid snow cover hence it led to more snow for you guys in the Mid Atlantic/East coast as the AO/NAO block suppressed every storm. The block kept all of northern Canada warm but that's normal in a strong blocking pattern. Quite different than this winter where most of Canada will finish above average. 

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=28011&timeframe=2&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2024&Day=1&Year=2009&Month=12#

See climate data in the link above. Regina averages -12.4/-14.7/-11.7C, respectively for DJF. 

Most strong Ninos feature the raging E Pac vortex which was largely absent this winter