February 2024

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, but many made long range forecasts based on one significant 10"+ storm regionwide, it didn't have to be an HECS.

Most forecasts I saw talked about a back loaded winter with a favorable mid Jan to mid Feb period. Not necessarily a 1 and done. But the reason I say luck is because things just haven't come to together even when our pattern was more favorable

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

5 top 10 warmest winters since that +13.3 December 2015.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.6	0
2	2023-2024	41.1	16
3	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.2	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

That year was a paradigm shift to our climate.

I don't believe that climate change occurs in small equal steps, I believe there are certain events, even natural events, that accelerate it.

 

Happy 8 year anniversary of the last time NYC went below zero!

 

[Stormlover74]

Yesterday we threaded the needle and made it work for most. Nyc will need a bombing low well off the coast like jan 2018 with temps in the 20s to get a big event. These borderline events just don't work out there anymore

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sure, there's still a chance, but so far how would you grade this winter?

I'd say D-.  Last winter was an F (I don't think there is an F-).  If we get a storm of 6"+ (doesn't even have to be 10"+ because we already have had a 4" storm), I would raise it to C-.

 

I would grade it as a D-.

0 to 9 inches - F

10 to 19 - D

20 to 29 C

30 to 39 B

40 plus A.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most forecasts I saw talked about a back loaded winter with a favorable mid Jan to mid Feb period. Not necessarily a 1 and done. But the reason I say luck is because things just haven't come to together even when our pattern was more favorable

Right, in that way it was very similar to last winter, we had a favorable period in December and a favorable period in March but neither worked out.

Which probably means a consistently bad Pacific tilts the "luck" against us.

It's very difficult to recover from a bad Pacific because of just how darn large it is.  Even if it briefly becomes better, the better periods aren't long enough to benefit us much.

 

[dWave]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

again I dont get this need to compare this to 97-98, as of now they are equally bad but no one besides you even cares about 97-98 lol

 

97 - 98 was easily worse imo. That year was 0.5" until the late March surprise 5" snowfall..which rapidly melted under the late March sun, followed by 80+ degree days to close out the month.

So there was none of these 1 or 2" events we had earlier. It may not be a lot but it was something and at least coated the ground briefly.  97-98 was the closest thing to a virtual snowless DJF in anyone's memory today. By late March in 98 I was fine with keeping the record low snow season in tact.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I would grade it as a D-.

0 to 9 inches - F

10 to 19 - D

20 to 29 C

30 to 39 B

40 plus A.

That's very similar to mine, although I try to break it down to -/+ too.  D- to me is the higher end of the under 10" range.

I put 50 plus inches as A+

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, dWave said:

97 - 98 was easily worse imo. That year was 0.5" until the late March surprise 5" snowfall..which rapidly melted under the late March sun, followed by 80+ degree days to close out the month.

So there was none of these 1 or 2" events we had earlier. It may not be a lot but it was something and at least coated the ground briefly.  97-98 was the closest thing to a virtual snowless DJF in anyone's memory today. By late March in 98 I was fine with keeping the record low snow season in tact.

 

I remember being mildy upset it was ruined.   The 5 days of 80 degrees to close it out was something else...

[LibertyBell]

Just now, dWave said:

97 - 98 was easily worse imo. That year was 0.5" until the late March surprise 5" snowfall..which rapidly melted under the late March sun, followed by 80+ degree days to close out the month.

So there was none of these 1 or 2" events we had earlier. It may not be a lot but it was something and at least coated the ground briefly.  97-98 was the closest thing to a virtual snowless DJF in anyone's memory today. By late March in 98 I was fine with keeping the record low snow season in tact.

 

Yes it definitely much worse and the el nino was a lot stronger than this one, which is why I don't think they belong in the same category.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, dWave said:

97 - 98 was easily worse imo. That year was 0.5" until the late March surprise 5" snowfall..which rapidly melted under the late March sun, followed by 80+ degree days to close out the month.

So there was none of these 1 or 2" events we had earlier. It may not be a lot but it was something and at least coated the ground briefly.  97-98 was the closest thing to a virtual snowless DJF in anyone's memory today. By late March in 98 I was fine with keeping the record low snow season in tact.

 

and I think it's only NYC that saw 5" from that surprise snowfall, the rest of us got around 2 inches from it.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, dWave said:

97 - 98 was easily worse imo. That year was 0.5" until the late March surprise 5" snowfall..which rapidly melted under the late March sun, followed by 80+ degree days to close out the month.

So there was none of these 1 or 2" events we had earlier. It may not be a lot but it was something and at least coated the ground briefly.  97-98 was the closest thing to a virtual snowless DJF in anyone's memory today. By late March in 98 I was fine with keeping the record low snow season in tact.

 

Yes that year we had absolutely nothing to track all of January and February through mid march and not a flake accumulated. This winter could've easily been 3 or 4 moderate events and close to average but the Jan events all did worse than expected here

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yesterday we threaded the needle and made it work for most. Nyc will need a bombing low well off the coast like jan 2018 with temps in the 20s to get a big event. These borderline events just don't work out there anymore

Right, it was like a spring storm in what's supposed to be the heart of winter.

 

[suzook]

Typical these years. Warm March, then cold April and May. The pattern sucks

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yesterday we threaded the needle and made it work for most. Nyc will need a bombing low well off the coast like jan 2018 with temps in the 20s to get a big event. These borderline events just don't work out there anymore

NYC has probably reached the point of needing a KU to reach normal seasonal snowfall against the 30 year averages. The much warmer temperatures makes it harder to add up a bunch of 1-3 to 2-4 or even 3-6 events like they could do before the 90s. There are just too few small to moderate events to reach normal. Since several of them turn out to be rain and we need to thread the needle for the snowier ones which are fewer in number than the old days. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Right, it was like a spring storm in what's supposed to be the heart of winter.

 

With how warm it's been this could've easily been a snowless month

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

5 top 10 warmest winters since that +13.3 December 2015.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.6	0
2	2023-2024	41.1	16
3	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.2	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

and this could become the first time in recorded NYC history that we have back to back winters that average 40 F or higher for DJF?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

NYC has probably reached the point of needing a KU to reach normal seasonal snowfall against the 30 year averages. The much warmer temperatures makes it harder to add up a bunch of 1-3 to 2-4 or even 3-6 events like they could do before the 90s. There are just too few small to moderate events to reach normal. Since several of them turn out to be rain and we need to thread the needle for the snowier ones which turn out to be fewer in number than the old days. 

The commonality of 40 F DJF winters is pretty disheartening, and now we're going to have them back to back for the first time ever.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

With how warm it's been this could've easily been a snowless month

It's basically either a KU or bust winter, nothing in between anymore.

 

[SACRUS]

 

34 and breezy , partly cloudy.   Dry out and slow melt next two days.  Some showers/flurries or light snow Sat am.  Beyond that overall coldeer side of normal but not by much the next 7 - 9 days.  Warmer to close the month and open next.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

[kat5hurricane]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

We can't complain this year, we performed far better than 97/98 even if we have seen out last snow!!

Avoided first back to back sub 10 inch seasons in my lifetime. Sitting at 12.5.

Sure, if you compare this to arguably the worst winter of all time it's fine but compared to a normal winter this has been another awful winter so I think there's a lot to complain about if you're a snow lover. It's all a matter of perspective I guess.

[MJO812]

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 65 (1946)
NYC: 63 (1946)
LGA: 60 (2000) 

Lows:

 

EWR: 0 (2016)
NYC: -1 (2016)
LGA:  1 (2016)

 

Historical:

 

1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow.
 

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston.

1982: A "meteorological bomb" exploded in the Atlantic southeast of Newfoundland. The term is used to describe a storm that rapidly intensifies. The intense cyclone off the Atlantic coast capsized a drilling rig killing 84 persons and sank a Soviet freighter resulting in 33 more deaths. The cyclone produced 80 mph winds that whipped the water into waves fifty feet high.

1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

 

2010: Vancouver struggled with above average, non-winter-like temperatures during the first weekend of the 2010 Winter Olympics. In fact, Vancouver was warmer, 48 degrees, than Miami, Florida, 45 degrees!

 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

34 and breezy , partly cloudy.   Dry out and slow melt next two days.  Some showers/flurries or light snow Sat am.  Beyond that overall coldeer side of normal but not by much the next 7 - 9 days.  Warmer to close the month and open next.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

You are discounting all of the other possibilities - this what led several folks here to be wrong about this past event saying things like "no accumulations" and rain up to I-84 - I agree with what Walt said earlier

"

Caution on tossing the towel before 2/25.  I do think we will warmup big time the first few days of March, if not around 2/28-29.  BUT... weeklies seem optimistic about multiple qpf opportunities in March. We'll know I think at 4PM Friday when the updated March monthly posts from CPC.

 

In the meantime,  minor minor Thu night.

Will re review at 530PM for a 1-4" refresher thread NJ-LI portion of the forum, so snow starve. Looks too me like a nice colder consistency Saturday morning.

2/22-24 is on... no thread but pretty sure large winter storm then.  Probably a little too warm here, but maybe not, so keep monitoring the ensembles/ops reading up."

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Sure, if you compare this to arguably the worst winter of all time it's fine but compared to a normal winter this has been another awful winter so I think there's a lot to complain about if you're a snow lover. It's all a matter of perspective I guess.

But if you compare it to 83 or 2016 you're bound to be disappointed

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

still chance of this moving further north with more snow here - NAM is not in its most accurate range yet........

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

still chance of this moving further north with more snow here - NAM is not in its most accurate range yet........

I still think it's a 1 to maybe 2" event as the gfs and euro show but could see it drying up or favoring southern areas too

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I still think it's a 1 to maybe 2" event as the gfs and euro show but could see it drying up or favoring southern areas too

have to consider that snow ratio's will be much higher then yesterdays storm probably in the range of 12 - 15 :1. So don't need as much precip too accumulate since it begins in a colder air mass then yesterday

[kat5hurricane]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

But if you compare it to 83 or 2016 you're bound to be disappointed

2016 was kind of a fluke. It was a nothing winter saved by one massive storm, sort of like '05-06. 

The difference in perception with 2016 is that it was smack dab in the middle of the snowiest 20 year period in history or close to following 2 great winters and my personal favorite '14-'15 so it was ok to have a down winter, relatively. When you have 2 winters in the previous 4 at below 5" (at Central Park at least), it makes another ratter a tough one to deal with.

Personally, as much as I love snow, I care less about cold winters as I get older and I'm not really that old so if we're not going to snow, bring on spring.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 65 (1946)
NYC: 63 (1946)
LGA: 60 (2000) 

Lows:

 

EWR: 0 (2016)
NYC: -1 (2016)
LGA:  1 (2016)

 

Historical:

 

1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow.
 

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston.

1982: A "meteorological bomb" exploded in the Atlantic southeast of Newfoundland. The term is used to describe a storm that rapidly intensifies. The intense cyclone off the Atlantic coast capsized a drilling rig killing 84 persons and sank a Soviet freighter resulting in 33 more deaths. The cyclone produced 80 mph winds that whipped the water into waves fifty feet high.

1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

 

2010: Vancouver struggled with above average, non-winter-like temperatures during the first weekend of the 2010 Winter Olympics. In fact, Vancouver was warmer, 48 degrees, than Miami, Florida, 45 degrees!

 

Wow, I didn't know Valentine's Day is the anniversary of the great 1899 BLIZZARD!

Did the one in 1940 also affect our area?

And today is the 8 year anniversary of the last time NYC went below zero!

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

2016 was kind of a fluke. It was a nothing winter saved by one massive storm, sort of like '05-06. 

The difference in perception with 2016 is that it was smack dab in the middle of the snowiest 20 year period in history or close to following 2 great winters and my personal favorite '14-'15 so it was ok to have a down winter, relatively. When you have 2 winters in the previous 4 at below 5" (at Central Park at least), it makes another ratter a tough one to deal with.

Personally, as much as I love snow, I care less about cold winters as I get older and I'm not really that old so if we're not going to snow, bring on spring.

It wasn't a fluke because back then we had much better blocking and we also had a couple of nice snowfalls in February and went below zero on Valentine's Day