wdrag Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Aside from the minor brief snow showers Thu night, and a possibly nice wet snow that will melt a fair amount on pavement Saturday; the 22nd-24th is ensemble supported with a potential coastal event per CMCE, GEFS, EPS all showing an inch or so, 7-9 days in advance. Seems minor but it's something and it may incorporate a southern stream short wave. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don when do you see the unseasonably mild pattern coming back? And dry too? Around the 24th? And do you see that continuing into March? I expect that it will start getting milder after the 20th. It will probably be drier than normal. Apparently, strong ENSO climatology proved superior to the prior extended range guidance, as the warmup is consistent with that climatology. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: I expect that it will start getting milder after the 20th. It will probably be drier than normal. Apparently, strong ENSO climatology proved superior to the prior extended range guidance, as the warmup is consistent with that climatology. Thanks, I see this is why people are saying, we have one more snow event in all likelihood and that will be it for the winter. Next Saturday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18z euro further north with Friday nights event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: We'll see if any of these trailing showers and squals s in PA make it to the area/coast. Just a few very light flurries at my location with this activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro further north with Friday nights event Got a visual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro further north with Friday nights event I seen thanks. Pretty dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 41 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro further north with Friday nights event Which means it will hit Myrtle beach 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 35 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I seen thanks. Pretty dry Eps 1-2 for the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Decent chance if this makes a direct hit many places would do marginally better than they did today Yeah, haven’t posted much about it because this was a great event for the northern tier of the metro, but today stunk for me given the runs yesterday and 2-5 WWA I was under. Barely got an inch that melted as it was falling. I wasn’t expecting anything from this anyway until the great model gesundheit yesterday which lured me in. Regardless, tough for me to do well in a marginal set up - no doubt. This was a great event for the metro and I’m thrilled for everyone who got a great snowfall out of it. Onto the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps 1-2 for the area Members came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Members came west Dry tho. Weak system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Dry tho. Weak system Well yeah its not a big storm. Inch or two maybe 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gefs probs are not too shabby for greater than an inch. Temper expectations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Gefs probs are not too shabby for greater than an inch. Temper expectations. Exactly. Our time is running out, take whatever we can get at this point of the season. Looks like surface temps won’t be a issue with this event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Exactly. Our time is running out, take whatever we can get at this point of the season. Looks like surface temps won’t be a issue with this event Yea I'm all for another 2-3" not gonna complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Check out the next expected snowfall next Tuesday . It’s down from 10+ inches earlier this evening.. Sign me up now!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looking ahead, here are the NYC daily temperature averages from strong El Niño winters: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Rgem looks like a couple inches as well And icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Looking ahead, here are the NYC daily temperature averages from strong El Niño winters: Confidence intervals are missing from your stats. Considering the sample size and complexity of the underlying weather/climate systems in question, it seems highly likely any "warm" and "cold" periods in the historical record on specific dates represent random chance/noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, wdrag said: Aside from the minor brief snow showers Thu night, and a possibly nice wet snow that will melt a fair amount on pavement Saturday; the 22nd-24th is ensemble supported with a potential coastal event per CMCE, GEFS, EPS all showing an inch or so, 7-9 days in advance. Seems minor but it's something and it may incorporate a southern stream short wave. I guess there will be no storm thread for this Saturday - probably a good idea since this last storm thread for todays storm was a mess for obvious reasons....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I guess there will be no storm thread for this Saturday - probably a good idea since this last storm thread for todays storm was a mess for obvious reasons....... It's only Tuesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: Confidence intervals are missing from your stats. Considering the sample size and complexity of the underlying weather/climate systems in question, it seems highly likely any "warm" and "cold" periods in the historical record on specific dates represent random chance/noise. The chart is a quick sketch to illustrate how past strong El Niño events have evolved. No dates reach a threshold of 90% confidence (all 1950-2023 data). It can still alert one to look for possibilities, but isn’t a concrete forecast nor intended to be one. With the likely mild pattern to end February, some might conclude that winter has ended early. Yet, the ENSO data, among other data, can suggest a measure of caution. For example, the ENSO cases were more than twice as likely as all other cases to be 1 sigma or more below normal for March 22. That doesn’t mean that it will be cold. It just means that one cannot prematurely assume that an early spring is assured. Many other variables ultimately determine the outcome. That applies far beyond ENSO e.g., the MJO has an overall coefficient of determination to temperature anomalies well below 0.2. Thus, outcomes for Phase 8 (high amplitude) vary widely even as cases cluster toward a given outcome. One can get some insight but is constrained by the recognition that other outcomes are possible. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Exactly. Our time is running out, take whatever we can get at this point of the season. Looks like surface temps won’t be a issue with this event I'll be rooting for warmer temps in mid to late March, but over the next month I'll take every inch I can get. It's a real positive that this event will be happening during the overnight hours when temps will be below freezing. Right now it looks like a 1 to 3 inch event to me, but we can hope that it trends to a 2 to 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, donsutherland1 said: The chart is a quick sketch to illustrate how past strong El Niño events have evolved. No dates reach a threshold of 90% confidence (all 1950-2023 data). It can still alert one to look for possibilities, but isn’t a concrete forecast nor intended to be one. With the likely mild pattern to end February, some might conclude that winter has ended early. Yet, the ENSO data, among other data, can suggest a measure of caution. For example, the ENSO cases were more than twice as likely as all other cases to be 1 sigma or more below normal for March 22. That doesn’t mean that it will be cold. It just means that one cannot prematurely assume that an early spring is assured. Many other variables ultimately determine the outcome. That applies far beyond ENSO e.g., the MJO has an overall coefficient of determination to temperature anomalies well below 0.2. Thus, outcomes for Phase 8 (high amplitude) vary widely even as cases cluster toward a given outcome. One can get some insight but is constrained by the recognition that other outcomes are possible. I think many realize now that there can be snowstorms in mild patterns after what happened today...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I'll be rooting for warmer temps in mid to late March, but over the next month I'll take every inch I can get. It's a real positive that this event will be happening during the overnight hours when temps will be below freezing. Right now it looks like a 1 to 3 inch event to me, but we can hope that it trends to a 2 to 4. There is an upside possibility for Saturdays event as of now. As usual the track and speed of the system are key and it is a positive that the track is south of us and various features aloft support an expansive area of moisture far north of the track...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: There is an upside possibility for Saturdays event as of now. As usual the track and speed of the system are key and it is a positive that the track is south of us and various features aloft support an expansive area of moisture far north of the track...... But 3 or 4 is probably the ceiling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Stormlover74 said: But 3 or 4 is probably the ceiling which would be close to todays totals in many areas BUT since it is a weekend folks won't take it that seriously since many schools and businesses are closed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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