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February 2024

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) ca

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

it’s kind of discouraging posting in here. i get that people are jaded and pessimistic, but just making stuff up to be negative is a different story. that’s just bittercasting  there hasn’t been

donsutherland1
donsutherland1

On account of what amounted to an autumn that extended through most of February, blossoms are out early at the New York Botanical Garden. Inside the Enid Haupt Conservatory, T

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Krs4Lfe

Krs4Lfe

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snow mean on the eps today is 10 for nyc 

That's probably all from the storm tomorrow. In the more immediate short term after that, looks like temps are around normal for the foreseeable future, but temps in 40s (as we head towards that time of year), aren't going to cut it, as far as snow prospects go. Looks like the western ridge pulls back a bit, with a trough in the Central US that won't work for most of this region. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

That's probably all from the storm tomorrow. In the more immediate short term after that, looks like temps are around normal for the foreseeable future, but temps in 40s (as we head towards that time of year), aren't going to cut it, as far as snow prospects go. Looks like the western ridge pulls back a bit, with a trough in the Central US that won't work for most of this region. 

No 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

The evolution toward a sustained colder pattern will likely follow a storm that will impact the region mainly late tonight into tomorrow afternoon. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month.

Rain will change to wet snow in Newark and New York City late tonight or early tomorrow morning. The snow could fall moderately to heavily at times. New York City, Newark, and much of Long Island could pick up 3"-6" of heavy wet snow in a December 25, 2002 rain-to-heavy wet snow scenario. 5"-10" is likely in areas just outside of New York City and Newark. Snowfall amounts could fall sharply from the northern Hudson Valley northward. It is possible that this storm could ultimately become the New York City area's biggest snowstorm of the entire winter.

Temperatures will likely remain above freezing throughout most or all of the storm in New York City and adjacent areas holding down ratios and snowfall amounts. The highest daily snowfall with a low temperature of 32° or above in New York City was 5.5" that fell on April 2, 2018.

Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City following the pattern change. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -37.51 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.087 today.

On February 10 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.957 (RMM). The February 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.671 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.5°-40.3°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Don-

Thanks for all your great stats.  Do you have an updated winter ratter chart as of today?  Just wondering if NYC bumped up a position from the last time you posted?  Just wondering what it will be before and after the coming event.

Thanks.

Here it is through today:

image.png.8db13e88722c0dfee5b1ba336d1eef5d.png

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, SACRUS said:


Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1999)
NYC:  62 (2018)
LGA: 63 (2018)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: -3 (1914)
LGA:   4 (1979)

Historical:

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784. 

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. Click the links for additional information from the National Centers for Environmental Information and Florida Memory.

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across Alaska. Morning lows of 29 degrees at Anchorage and 31 degrees at Fairbanks were actually warmer than those in northern Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of an arctic cold front pushed temperatures into the 70s as far north as Iowa and Nebraska. Twenty-one cities in the central U.S., seven in Iowa, reported record high temperatures for the date. Lincoln NE reported a record high of 73 degrees, and the afternoon high of 59 degrees at Minneapolis MN smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Springfield IL reported a record forty-eight consecutive days with above normal temperatures. (The National Weather Summary)

2006 - An intense snow squall off of Lake Michigan cuts visibility to zero along a section of US 31. The resulting whiteout causes 96 cars to pile up. 25 were injured.

 

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784. 

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. Click the links for additional information from the National Centers for Environmental Information and Florida Memory.

 

Wow it's interesting that a volcano in Iceland named Laki is listed as the reason behind the very severe winter of 1783-84.  I wonder why the volcanoes that erupt in Iceland now don't have that kind of effect? And why do people say we need volcanoes in the tropics do it when Laki quite clearly was not and had a much larger effect than volcanoes like Tambora, El Chichon and Pinatubo?

Also what caused the extreme arctic cold of  1898-1899, 1917-1918 and 1933-1934?

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, SACRUS said:


Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1999)
NYC:  62 (2018)
LGA: 63 (2018)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: -3 (1914)
LGA:   4 (1979)

Historical:

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784. 

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. Click the links for additional information from the National Centers for Environmental Information and Florida Memory.

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across Alaska. Morning lows of 29 degrees at Anchorage and 31 degrees at Fairbanks were actually warmer than those in northern Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of an arctic cold front pushed temperatures into the 70s as far north as Iowa and Nebraska. Twenty-one cities in the central U.S., seven in Iowa, reported record high temperatures for the date. Lincoln NE reported a record high of 73 degrees, and the afternoon high of 59 degrees at Minneapolis MN smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Springfield IL reported a record forty-eight consecutive days with above normal temperatures. (The National Weather Summary)

2006 - An intense snow squall off of Lake Michigan cuts visibility to zero along a section of US 31. The resulting whiteout causes 96 cars to pile up. 25 were injured.

 

 

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

Wow there was heavy snow in the Gulf of Mexico as late as 1958? I thought this was something that only happened 100+ years ago.

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

Wow there was heavy snow in the Gulf of Mexico as late as 1958? I thought this was something that only happened 100+ years ago.

Think 1993 as well.

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Volcanic Winter

Volcanic Winter

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784. 

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. Click the links for additional information from the National Centers for Environmental Information and Florida Memory.

 

Wow it's interesting that a volcano in Iceland named Laki is listed as the reason behind the very severe winter of 1783-84.  I wonder why the volcanoes that erupt in Iceland now don't have that kind of effect? And why do people say we need volcanoes in the tropics do it when Laki quite clearly was not and had a much larger effect than volcanoes like Tambora, El Chichon and Pinatubo?

Also what caused the extreme arctic cold of  1898-1899, 1917-1918 and 1933-1934?

 

Laki was an effusive mega drain-out of the Grímsvötn subglacial volcano within the Vatnajökull icecap. The same volcano that erupted explosively in 2011 to VEI 4 level (was actually fairly close to borderline VEI 5 level; it was a large event). 

The Laki eruption was an *enormous* rifting fissure eruption southwest of the icecap, it poured out 15 cubic kilometers of extremely sulfurous magma and had explosive components. The total sulfur output was like 120Tg’s (compared to 20 for Pinatubo). Not all of it reached the stratosphere due to it being predominantly effusive, but a lot did likely on intense thermal updrafts, and the eruption did have some explosive components mixed in. The fissure system for this eruption was over 80km in length…

It was the third biggest effusive rift eruption in postglacial Iceland. A cloud of sulfur gas stuck in the troposphere was swept over to Europe and caused a lot of illness and death. In Iceland it was catastrophic for the local population. Can’t overestimate how substantial this event was, in terms of both local and global impact. And yes, there were known climatological impacts from this event. 

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Krs4Lfe

Krs4Lfe

Posted
Posted

As far as the rest of the long range goes, not much to write home about. CPC says the northeast and the west coast stay colder than normal, with average conditions for much of the nation, with warmer conditions for southern plains. Precipitation anomalies remain below average. Looking like cooler weather but drier weather. Not going to cut it for the rest of the month  

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Krs4Lfe

Krs4Lfe

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png

65cb914bd10f6.png

ICON is on an island with that one. That being said, weeklies still show a good pattern up until end of Feb, so many 10-13 more days, but after that, they’ve hasted the Spring pattern coming. 

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