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February 2024


wdrag
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Records:

 

Highs:


EWR: 63 (1990)
NYC: 63 (1990)
LGA: 62 (1990)


Lows:

EWR:  -14 (1934)
NYC:  -15 (1934)
LGA:    7 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

 

1870 - President Ulysses S. Grant signed a law "to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations in the interior of the continent." A petition submitted by Increase A Lapham to Congressman Halbert E Paine in December 1869 began this process.

 

1899: One of the most significant cold outbreaks to ever impact the United States occurred early to mid-February. From the 8th-11th, the statewide average temperature across Iowa was 14.6 degrees below zero, making it the coldest four-day stretch on record in the state. On the 8th, Sioux City experienced its coldest day on record, with a daily average temperature of 24 degrees below zero. Then on the 11th, they reached their second-coldest temperature on record with a low of minus 31. Overall the coldest readings were obtained on the morning of the 9th when reported low temperatures included -21 at Keokuk, -23 at Des Moines, -33 at New Hampton, -35 at Le Mars, -38 at Estherville, and -40 at Sibley. The cold across the middle of the country was so extreme and persistent that ice floes down the Mississippi River into the deep south, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans on February 17th. This has happened only one other time: February 13, 1784. The temperature dropped to 63 degrees below zero at Norway House, Manitoba, Canada setting the province's low-temperature record.

1933 - The temperature at Moran, WY, located next to Teton National Park, plunged to 63 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The temperature at the Riverside Ranger Station in Montana dipped to 66 below zero to establish a record for the state, and a record for the nation which stood until 1954. (David Ludlum)

1934 - The mercury dipped to 51 degrees below zero at Vanderbilt to establish a record for the state of Michigan. The temperature at Stillwater plunged to 52 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state of New York. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm off the Atlantic coast produced high winds and heavy snow in the northeastern U.S., with blizzard conditions in eastern Massachusetts. Wind gusted to 80 mph and 23.4 inches of snow produced drifts eight feet high at Cape Cod MA. It was the worst blizzard in thirty years for the Cape Cod area. Winds in some of the mountains and ridges of the Appalachian Region gusted to 100 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Alliance NE plunged from 44 degrees to 12 above in just two hours, and Mobridge SD reported a wind chill of 64 degrees below zero. Winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies gusted to 90 mph at Cheyenne WY, and reached 96 mph at Boulder CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm continued to bring rain and snow to southern California. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Olancha, with three inches at Palmdale. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front erupted over eastern Texas late in the morning, and produced severe weather as they swept across the southeastern states. Early evening thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured one person at Nat TX, and produced tennis balls size hail which caused more than half a million dollars damage around Shreveport LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1994 - A devastating ice storm struck Mississippi, Louisiana, and extreme northwest Alabama. Freezing rain began falling over northern Mississippi during the early morning hours and continued until midday on the 10th. Ice accumulated 3 to 6 inches thick on exposed objects in the affected area. Due to the weight of the ice, power lines, trees, and tree limbs were down. Nearly one million people were without power after the storm, some for a month.

 

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Feb 1934 severe Arctic cold

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/06/nyregion/but-what-about-february-9-1934.html#:~:text=By 7 A.M.%2C it was,said it was 14.3 below.

 

The mercury began its plunge on a Thursday night 62 years (1994) ago this week. The moment that Thursday became Friday, the temperature was 7 below zero. By 7 A.M., it was 13 below, and at 7:25 A.M. on Friday, Feb. 9, 1934, the coldest temperature ever for New York City was recorded.

The National Weather Service says it was 15 below zero. Newspaper accounts said it was 14.3 below.

Whatever. The temperature never got above 7 that day. Six people died. Dozens of people passed out from carbon monoxide poisoning while trying to thaw car radiators in closed garages.

Hundreds of schoolchildren were treated for frostbitten hands, noses and ears. A girl fainted from cold and hunger in Public School 89 in Brooklyn.

More than 40 policemen were treated for frostbite. So were many firefighters, from fighting blazes, from thawing out the 652 hydrants that froze, or after being summoned by the dozen false alarms attributed to the freezing of sprinkler systems.

It had been a bitter winter in the East well before Feb. 9 -- bitter enough to freeze Lake Ontario for the first time in 60 years, bitter enough to clog the Hudson River, bitter enough to thwart a Coast Guard icebreaker in Long Island's Great South Bay.

By coincidence, Feb. 9, 1934, was the 64th birthday of the old Weather Bureau. On that day for reminiscing, meteorologists noted that the previous all-time low for New York City was minus 13, recorded on Dec. 30, 1917. One meteorologist ventured that Feb. 9 was the coldest day in New York since the American Revolution.

A sheriff's deputy sent to Staten Island to serve an eviction order found a woman and three small children. All were hungry and cold. Sheriff John Timlim postponed the eviction.

The next day, the temperature rose to 27. On Sunday, there were Lincoln Day sales (fur coats as low as $45) for those with money.

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Today was another mild day with temperatures rising into the lower and middle 50s across the region. The temperature will likely peak in the middle or upper 50s in New York City and the 60s in Philadelphia and Washington, DC tomorrow.

The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February will likely wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City.

New York City will very likely see a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season.

The second week of February will likely see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week preceded by a storm. That storm could affect the region early next week. There is a possibility that the rain could mix with or end as a period of wet snow or flurries in parts of the region. Parts of the region could pick up a light accumulation of snow. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing throughout most or all of the storm in New York City and adjacent areas. However, there is a degree of uncertainty.

Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City following the pattern change. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -46.54 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since May 24, 2023 when the SOI stood at -64.63.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.888 today.

On February 7 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.220 (RMM). The February 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.271 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.6.° (1.7° above normal).

 

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20 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Off topic for this forum but a nice wintry scene up in Barrow this afternoon.   Check out the drifting.

Screenshot 2024-02-09 at 9.05.40 PM.jpg

Was just looking up sunrise/sunset for Barrow. This time of year they add 10-11 minutes of daylight every day.  Daylight increasing by over two hours every 10-11 days (the increase was even more in January, like 14-15 minutes a day) must be an interesting part of an overall interesting way of life, weather and astronomical wise.

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2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Totally agree.  Is terrible for ski areas though as you said.

Central PA has several ski areas near Penn State where I went to school that have suffered for almost 20 years now since the pattern pre-2005 is pretty much gone. They are a couple ridges too far east to cash in on lake effect or upslope, more coastal hugger Miller A systems then (92-93 and 93-94 were epic there), more small clipper 2-4" type storms, miller B type systems would transfer to the coast earlier and not doom them to sleet to dryslot while further north and New England get pounded, etc. There have been some half decent seasons since 2003-04 but in State College at least nothing over 60" I think since then. Their yearly average has nosedived, was 48" when I went to school there of course when the nosedive started, I think now it's about 40" and of course in this "winter" I think they have about 18" so far and their fate with this upcoming storm depends on the same usual late bumps north as us. 

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7 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Hey @wdrag- I recall you explaining what the NBM snowfall "model ratio" meant but can't recall it or find it.  Any chance you (or anyone who knows) could refresh our memory?  Thanks!  

Don't know but they apply, probably differing snow ratios with applicable qpf for 1 or 3 hour periods during the event along with multiple ensemble surface temps. Complex but good baseline.

I'm still very careful about snow south of I80.  GFS already has above freezing temps aloft at LGA and I have privately mentioned a possible sleet mix to Sussex County for an hour or two. I dont want to get into debates about snowfall rates overcoming above surface freezing temps.  Potential exists but I'd wait til 36 hours our before great enthusiasm. Canadian still all over the place which tells you sensitivity problems to the upper air interactions.  I could be wrong but right now I'm conservative still 1/2-2" CP.  Blessings if it triples that and a hard won model victory for the NYC participants. 

3 days out.  The prob map for 2" or more is only through sunrise Tue. 

Screen Shot 2024-02-10 at 4.21.14 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-02-10 at 5.20.20 AM.png

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15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We haven’t been able to sustain a -EPO for more than shorter periods during the winters since 13-14 and 14-15 due to the overpowering Pacifc Jet influence with the record WPAC warm pool.

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9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If winter's doomed to total garbage, today will do perfectly fine. The worst is useless cold and dry to warm and the storms hit then. Sucks though for the Catskills, etc ski resorts that rely on the snow. 

They also rely on the "backyard snow effect" at the coast--it snows here or on LI people think "let's ski"   Have had little of that the last 2-3 yrs.

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14 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Feb 1934 severe Arctic cold

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/06/nyregion/but-what-about-february-9-1934.html#:~:text=By 7 A.M.%2C it was,said it was 14.3 below.

 

The mercury began its plunge on a Thursday night 62 years (1994) ago this week. The moment that Thursday became Friday, the temperature was 7 below zero. By 7 A.M., it was 13 below, and at 7:25 A.M. on Friday, Feb. 9, 1934, the coldest temperature ever for New York City was recorded.

The National Weather Service says it was 15 below zero. Newspaper accounts said it was 14.3 below.

Whatever. The temperature never got above 7 that day. Six people died. Dozens of people passed out from carbon monoxide poisoning while trying to thaw car radiators in closed garages.

Hundreds of schoolchildren were treated for frostbitten hands, noses and ears. A girl fainted from cold and hunger in Public School 89 in Brooklyn.

More than 40 policemen were treated for frostbite. So were many firefighters, from fighting blazes, from thawing out the 652 hydrants that froze, or after being summoned by the dozen false alarms attributed to the freezing of sprinkler systems.

It had been a bitter winter in the East well before Feb. 9 -- bitter enough to freeze Lake Ontario for the first time in 60 years, bitter enough to clog the Hudson River, bitter enough to thwart a Coast Guard icebreaker in Long Island's Great South Bay.

By coincidence, Feb. 9, 1934, was the 64th birthday of the old Weather Bureau. On that day for reminiscing, meteorologists noted that the previous all-time low for New York City was minus 13, recorded on Dec. 30, 1917. One meteorologist ventured that Feb. 9 was the coldest day in New York since the American Revolution.

A sheriff's deputy sent to Staten Island to serve an eviction order found a woman and three small children. All were hungry and cold. Sheriff John Timlim postponed the eviction.

The next day, the temperature rose to 27. On Sunday, there were Lincoln Day sales (fur coats as low as $45) for those with money.

wow so the 1899 and 1934 arctic outbreaks happened on the same day? It looks like they came close to matching our all time historic winter in 1783-84 that we have talked about previously? it would be interesting to see national maps of the cold for all three of these arctic outbreaks (I'm sure a map can be made using the available data on 1784, 1899 and 1934 so we can compare the three?)  It looks like the cold in 1784 extended for a much longer period of time (many months) than the other two?  Were they all accompanied by big snowstorms?  That is the difference between the arctic cold back then vs the big arctic shots in the 80s-- those were all cold and dry and on bare ground not snow covered ground.

 

1899: One of the most significant cold outbreaks to ever impact the United States occurred early to mid-February. From the 8th-11th, the statewide average temperature across Iowa was 14.6 degrees below zero, making it the coldest four-day stretch on record in the state. On the 8th, Sioux City experienced its coldest day on record, with a daily average temperature of 24 degrees below zero. Then on the 11th, they reached their second-coldest temperature on record with a low of minus 31. Overall the coldest readings were obtained on the morning of the 9th when reported low temperatures included -21 at Keokuk, -23 at Des Moines, -33 at New Hampton, -35 at Le Mars, -38 at Estherville, and -40 at Sibley. The cold across the middle of the country was so extreme and persistent that ice floes down the Mississippi River into the deep south, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans on February 17th. This has happened only one other time: February 13, 1784. The temperature dropped to 63 degrees below zero at Norway House, Manitoba, Canada setting the province's low-temperature record.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t been able to sustain a -EPO for more than shorter periods during the winters since 13-14 and 14-15 due to the overpowering Pacifc Jet influence with the record WPAC warm pool.

no one has properly explained why the WPAC is so much warmer than the EPAC? what makes that part of the Pacific so different from the rest?

 

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9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If winter's doomed to total garbage, today will do perfectly fine. The worst is useless cold and dry to warm and the storms hit then. Sucks though for the Catskills, etc ski resorts that rely on the snow. 

it's nice to see the sun, cloudy and mild is what sucks, cloudy and cold too unless it snows.

 

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