February 2024

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro clown map still will equal next to nothing NYC and points south and east

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pathetic.

any cold air that does move south and east will certainly moderate over snowless ground and mostly ice free lakes

[winterwx21]

Euro changes the rain Monday night over to snow Tuesday morning, but with the lousy airmass it would probably be white rain or just a slushy coating on colder surfaces for the NYC area. Those clown maps are really bad as many have pointed out. We really would need a dynamic solution to get decent accumulations near the coast. Interesting enough to keep an eye on, but I think only a very slight chance that this will work out. Hopefully we'll have a better snow chance President's Day Weekend when we actually have some cold air in place. 

Anyway it's 55 degrees here right now. Looking forward to the pattern change and hopefully some snow threats mid to late month, but it's nice to have temps well up into the 50s for a few days now. I'm leaving right now for deer hunting. Great way to finish up the last few days of the season with this warm weather. 

[North and West]

This is closer to reality

what if I don’t want to live in reality


.

[MJO812]

Eps is nice 

[brooklynwx99]

northern stream has a much more confluent orientation compared to 00z

[Franklin0529]

Can't deny the south trend. Something to track 

[snowman19]

Mon-Tues is going to move north again

[wdrag]

On 2/7/2024 at 12:53 PM, RU848789 said:

I do have IM but may not have set up on American. 

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Euro clown map still will equal next to nothing NYC and points south and east

10:1 ratio maps are junk, agreed. Nothing has changed IMO. This is still an I84 north event

[wdrag]

Will review carefully this eve and possibly start a thread but need some acc NYC.  Am on the road now so won’t know on a thread til 9pm.  Just keep Monitoring on this Feb thread. 

NYC due for another 1-3 since it’s only had one of the normal 3 per winter.  Thanks Don

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Mon-Tues is going to move north again

Pattern doesn't support that 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern doesn't support that 

Yes, it absolutely does and I fully expect the models to adjust as such again, the CMC/GEPS is closest to reality right now IMO. You are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment again. If I’m wrong then torch me, but I don’t think I will be

[TheClimateChanger]

57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z Euro clown map still will equal next to nothing NYC and points south and east

Funny how it used to always be the Kuchera maps that were the clown maps, and now it's the 10:1 ratio maps.

[psv88]

52 now

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Funny how it used to always be the Kuchera maps that were the clown maps, and now it's the 10:1 ratio maps.

if it's a snow map it's a clown map

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern doesn't support that 

If the confluence weakens as we get closer in and/or the storm gets more amped yes it certainly will go back north. It’s incredibly thread the needle here. We need a dynamic storm which will try to trend north to overcome the crap initial airmass, enough confluence to keep it from cutting but not too much to suppress it, and a somewhat cooperative long wave pattern to help it track in a favorable way. It’s not the classic setup by any means for us to get a significant snowstorm around the city. What comes in 10 days or so should be more favorable. 

[North and West]

Mon-Tues is going to move north again

I am shocked that you would say this



.

[North and West]

Funny how it used to always be the Kuchera maps that were the clown maps, and now it's the 10:1 ratio maps.

From an amateurish perspective, why post maps at all that will be derided as clown car pileups?

(Truly asking, because half the maps posted here usually result in typed out throwdowns)


.

[brooklynwx99]

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region

as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart

finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:

so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:

let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada

are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic

so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

[Brian5671]

Incredible post.  Thank you. 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region

as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart

finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:

so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:

let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada

are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic

so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

 Quality post

Similar thoughts:

 

[North and West]

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region

as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart

finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:

so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:

let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada

are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic


so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

I would never tell you this in person, but you’re very talented. (That was a nice, clear explanation! Thanks!)


.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don't know enough about the war's impact to address that issue. There had been a general decline in average winter precipitation from the late 1930s bottoming out at the end of the 1960s.

The 1960s had the best winters and summers from that era.  1966 particularly.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro changes the rain Monday night over to snow Tuesday morning, but with the lousy airmass it would probably be white rain or just a slushy coating on colder surfaces for the NYC area. Those clown maps are really bad as many have pointed out. We really would need a dynamic solution to get decent accumulations near the coast. Interesting enough to keep an eye on, but I think only a very slight chance that this will work out. Hopefully we'll have a better snow chance President's Day Weekend when we actually have some cold air in place. 

Anyway it's 55 degrees here right now. Looking forward to the pattern change and hopefully some snow threats mid to late month, but it's nice to have temps well up into the 50s for a few days now. I'm leaving right now for deer hunting. Great way to finish up the last few days of the season with this warm weather. 

the most important part is it's been SUNNY

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region

as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart

finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:

so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:

let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada

are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic

so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

1986-87 was a very interesting winter with many near misses.

It's interesting that Monmouth County got 50 inches of snow that winter and we got half that or about 25 inches.  January 1987 had the standout snow event of that winter but there were several near misses like the one you mentioned in February.

 

[White Gorilla]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1986-87 was a very interesting winter with many near misses.

It's interesting that Monmouth County got 50 inches of snow that winter and we got half that or about 25 inches.  January 1987 had the standout snow event of that winter but there were several near misses like the one you mentioned in February.

 

Epic winter where I lived in central Massachusetts.  Jan 1987 was a record breaker for snowfall.  Several feet of snowpack by the end of the month.  As an 8th grader snow lover, I was in snow heaven.  That Feb storm that missed to our south initially gave us a blizzard warning on a Sunday afternoon, hearing that on my NOAA weather radio.  That one was a huge bust.  Only a dusting with wind while the Cape got hammered. 

[Franklin0529]

Gfs not backing down 

[wdrag]

I was going to wait til at least 6A Friday to further review since there is much uncertainty including sfc temps, but someone else started the thread.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Well, well well, the “it’s going to trend north Crew” is in shambles right now lol.