MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: South trend is more likely. AO is tanking That's what I have been saying. I don't believe these inland runners. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gefs for next week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's what I have been saying. I don't believe these inland runners. I don't either. Confluence is strengthening on ensembles. And no amount of weenies by snowman will change that Problem is it's still a marginal setup. Amped solutions represent some phasing which is needed to bring cold air down. We could end up with a less dynamic system to our south that still ends up being rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This would end the snow hole talk. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Let the 6z gfs Verify please. Then we can end winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 No thread this morning: Modeling overall says I84 is more or less the south boundary of 1-2" of snow. Ensembles via the GEFS have less than 45% of 1" of snow in 48 hour period NYC early next week. I added the NBM from 07z/8 through Valentines Day: I can't thread anything and am not upbeat about a winter thread for a while. I think it a good idea to wait for another 12-48 hours before any thread. Wish I could be more enthusiastic. I'll check back tonight. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 EPS had higher heights out west near the Rockies by Feb 15th. Hopefully that continues We should see opportunities from mid Feb through mid March. No guarantees of course but greater chances than usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: EPS had higher heights out west near the Rockies by Feb 15th. Hopefully that continues We should see opportunities from mid Feb through mid March. No guarantees of course but greater chances than usual. Look at the gfs lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: This would end the snow hole talk. It really is a weenie run. Four snow storms in a 10 day period starting on or about Monday. This is 2010 redux for the mid-Atlantic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MJO812 said: Look at the gfs lol Mid-Atlantic is probably a more favored region than New England in a Nino blocking regime. NAO won't be particularly strong though so we should avoid Feb 2010 type suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, Tatamy said: It really is a weenie run. Four snow storms in a 10 day period starting on or about Monday. This is 2010 redux for the mid-Atlantic. Why is the enthusiasm so low though? Is everyone taking a wait and see approach? Looking to see how much multimodel support there is for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Mid-Atlantic is probably a more favored region than New England in a Nino blocking regime. NAO won't be particularly strong though so we should avoid Feb 2010 type suppression. ah so in this case we're part of the midatlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, Tatamy said: It really is a weenie run. Four snow storms in a 10 day period starting on or about Monday. This is 2010 redux for the mid-Atlantic. If only this would work out, it's a great pattern for anyone from I-80 on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Why is the enthusiasm so low though? Is everyone taking a wait and see approach? Looking to see how much multimodel support there is for this. Speaking from a snow weenie’s perspective like myself, there’s been so many head fakes and disappointments the last two seasons that I’m waiting for the proverbial rug to get pulled out from me once again. I know eventually the snow drought in NYC proper will end (I live in NE Jersey), but until that happens I can’t help but to have a skeptical approach with each threat that shows up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 EPS correcting weaker with the ridge out West day 10 compared to the old day 15. So we may need to rely on short term improvements which may not show up until under 120 hrs. But the flip side of this is things keep getting pushed back. Hopefully we can put something together before the season ends. But there are no guarantees when the Pacific is this hostile. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: EPS correcting weaker with the ridge out West day 10 compared to the old day 15. So we may need to rely on short term improvements which may not show up until under 120 hrs. But the flip side of this is things keep getting pushed back. Hopefully we can put something together before the season ends. But there are no guarantees when the Pacific is this hostile. New run Old run i wouldn't say that anything has gotten pushed back at all, it just looks like there's less spread along the WC. members differed on where to place the greatest positive anomalies, and they ended up more into AK, which is better for cold air supply, if anything the 50/50 ULL is also stronger. i don't see an issue here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: Speaking from a snow weenie’s perspective like myself, there’s been so many head fakes and disappointments the last two seasons that I’m waiting for the proverbial rug to get pulled out from me once again. I know eventually the snow drought in NYC proper will end (I live in NE Jersey), but until that happens I can’t help but to have a skeptical approach with each threat that shows up. You'll know this years long snow drought will end when you get a decent storm in Dec. That's pretty reliable. Yes you can get storms in other types of winters ( Feb 2006, Jan 2016 ) but a winter like this one almost never produces if it hasn't by now. You can get some events in March, late Feb that are gone as fast as they fall, and be happy with them. I don't see it this year, because it always finds a way not to produce. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 years like 2010 and 2016 had a strong Pacific trough and potent STJ like this one. seeing blue colors off the WC isn't some death knell if you have blocking and Alaskan ridging 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: EPS correcting weaker with the ridge out West day 10 compared to the old day 15. So we may need to rely on short term improvements which may not show up until under 120 hrs. But the flip side of this is things keep getting pushed back. Hopefully we can put something together before the season ends. But there are no guarantees when the Pacific is this hostile. New run Old run What got pushed back ? Everything still looks on track for a fun period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Why is the enthusiasm so low though? Is everyone taking a wait and see approach? Looking to see how much multimodel support there is for this. Can only speak for myself but I’m just worn out, and right now focusing on my little bday trip tomorrow to VT. If any of these really end up locking in and we’re staring down a legit MECS, I’ll be over the moon. Until then I’m remaining cautious. Everything is still very far out there in time, as has been the case for a while tracking this pattern shift. So my comfort won’t increase until we’re into the middle of next week and staring down similar runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What got pushed back ? Everything still looks on track for a fun period. The improvements out West got pushed back as we have seen that we can’t just rely on the -AO without Pacific cooperation for major events. We still have time to put something together from later February into early March. But there are no guarantees with how hostile the Pacific has been in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, JKEisMan said: This would end the snow hole talk. Zoomed in, just for our forum, because snow, lol. Even though there isn't much model support from the other models for this. I'd be happy with 6" of snow over the next 15 days given how little snow we've had, so I guess we have to wait until we some other models come on board for something like this. It is pretty though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Would pay lots of money for the 06z gfs to be true 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The improvements out West got pushed back as we have seen that we can’t just rely on the -AO without Pacific cooperation for major events. We still have time to put something together from later February into early March. But there are no guarantees with how hostile the Pacific has been in recent years. Presidents’ Day weekend looks good out west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Daily for the 14. Still no can kick. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looks like a potentially good storm track early next week and once again no real cold air to go with it. Meanwhile 26 degrees here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 8 minutes ago, lee59 said: Looks like a potentially good storm track early next week and once again no real cold air to go with it. Meanwhile 26 degrees here this morning. 25 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: The improvements out West got pushed back as we have seen that we can’t just rely on the -AO without Pacific cooperation for major events. We still have time to put something together from later February into early March. But there are no guarantees with how hostile the Pacific has been in recent years. I do agree, however, I think there is a difference between a trough out west and what we have experienced the last two years. Those troughs were to BAJA and that's impossible to overcome (unless you have a PV press like wx orhman pointed out happened in December 2002). If you have a moderate trough blocking can still overcome. Also, the last blocking episode failed in a different way, the middle Atlantic received the snow. Troughing to Baja means cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I do agree, however, I think there is a difference between a trough out west and what we have experienced the last two years. Those troughs were to BAJA and that's impossible to overcome (unless you have a PV press like wx orhman pointed out happened in December 2002). If you have a moderate trough blocking can still overcome. Also, the last blocking episode failed in a different way, the middle Atlantic received the snow. Troughing to Baja means cutter. We can get small to potentially moderate events with a hostile Pacific like we saw in January. But I think we’ll need to see improvements in later model runs out West to have a chance for NYC to go over 10” on the season. There is still time to put something bigger together. But it’s not a guarantee. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, bluewave said: We can get small to potentially moderate events with a hostile Pacific like we saw in January. But I think we’ll need to see improvements in later model runs out West to have a chance for NYC to go over 10” in the season. There is still time to out something together. But it’s not a guarantee. Completely agree. This is likely why KU events, outside of 55-60 and 00 through 18 are typically hard to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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