donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there was a HECS on Feb 15-17, though, and one in late March Yes. But we won't have anything close to a HECS leading up to mid-month. Then, we'll have to wait perhaps for awhile. Late February-early March might afford the best opportunity. If there's going to be at least a moderate snowstorm, I suspect that it would occur within that window. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, FPizz said: Are their similar periods that weren't a miss that you can point out, or just this? Certainly. As March 1958 was raised and part of that month saw similar teleconnections leading up to a big storm, here it is: Also, late February-March 1960: Notice no deep 500 mb low near the Aleutians nor an overpowering 500 mb low well off New England (more uniform trough depth). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The PV is taking a beating 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Several factors lining up for a potentially very active Atlantic hurricane season. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Several factors lining up for a potentially very active Atlantic hurricane season. Holy crap. 2005 redux in the making! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Several factors lining up for a potentially very active Atlantic hurricane season. This season has me really concerned. The combination of historic Atlantic Ocean warmth and an emergent La Niña is worrisome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Glass houses and the stones being thrown from within them will be deleted. Grow the eff up, log off if you find something in here not discussion worthy. Done with the bs. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This season has be really concerned. The combination of historic Atlantic Ocean warmth and an emergent La Niña is worrisome. Could it be worse than the year we had 30 TC's Don (I think that was 2020)? Hyperactive seasons tend to favor the Gulf over the East Coast don't they? Is there any way to predict which region would be favored this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Could it be worse than the year we had 30 TC's Don (I think that was 2020)? Hyperactive seasons tend to favor the Gulf over the East Coast don't they? Is there any way to predict which region would be favored this year? The number will be very high and there will likely be a high number of major hurricanes, some of which will probably make landfall. It’s tough to know right now where the highest risk of landfall might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18z GFS has the storm for next week further south again. It’s just one additional solution to the many that are out there for this event. FWIW there were quite a few members on the GEFS 12z run with this further south solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Yanksfan said: Holy crap. 2005 redux in the making! Yeah. This really isn’t a stretch. Pretty much everything you want to see for a busy season lining up. Does that mean we get hit? Of course not, but it does mean a prolific swell season for area beaches regardless of tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Several factors lining up for a potentially very active Atlantic hurricane season. That’s likely one thing to be bullish about here given the warmer Atlantic and north extensions of the Bermuda High that will likely guide future storms right up the coast. We can always count on our deluges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 A warming trend is now underway. The temperature could rise well into the 50s in New York City and into the 60s in Philadelphia and Washington, DC late in the week and early in the weekend. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February could wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City. New York City will likely see a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February will likely see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. A storm could affect the region early next week. There is a possibility that the rain could mix with or end as a period of wet snow or flurries in parts of the region. Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City following the pattern change. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -39.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.342 today. On February 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.080 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.092 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (2.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Presidents Day Soaker - went from suppresed 12Z to cutter 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 48 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 18z GFS has the storm for next week further south again. It’s just one additional solution to the many that are out there for this event. FWIW there were quite a few members on the GEFS 12z run with this further south solution as well. Yep, although unfortunately, unlike the snowier solutions a few runs ago, this one has all of the snow for NYC Metro/95 falling from 10 to 4 pm on 2/13, meaning with surface temps around 34-35F at midday, accumulations will be very difficult unless we see fairly heavy intensity. I'd still way rather see white rain than real rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Another Rainstorm 23rd - obviously this is an indication that maybe the pattern will not be suppressed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Another Rainstorm 23rd - obviously this is an indication that maybe the pattern will not be suppressed That's way out there and the ensembles are different . You are also talking about 384. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18Z GFS clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, MJO812 said: That's way out there and the ensembles are different . You are also talking about 384. I know but when you see this suppression is less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Presidents Day Soaker - went from suppresed 12Z to cutter And it will change again. Ensembles have alot of blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, MJO812 said: And it will change again. Ensembles have alot of blocking. agreed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Right now, I can't start a thread for NYC-LI 1/2-4" snowfall 2/13 ish cause 19z NBOM and positive snow depth change on the latest 12z CMCE/EPS and 18z GEFS are all less than 2". Too risky for a loser thread. Wind gusts right now are ensembled 40-45 MPH which is marginal wind advisory and a day of OBS thread. If ensembles grow together on snowfall for I80 region we'll get it going but for now, at least from myself, I cannot confidently proclaim we'll get 2" at CP for either the 13th or 18th-19th. I hope this changes. The 13th event looks to me like north of I84, probably best snowfall north of I90. NAVGEM may be a best fit? Certainly the ensembles are not optimistic for I80 area This can adjust since we' re still talking D6-7. Back tomorrow morning. Best to all. Walt 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Several factors lining up for a potentially very active Atlantic hurricane season. This specific graph is terrifying as shit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z GFS clown map And a general 2-3” of QPF thru 274 hours. And as we know this will flip flop like a fish out of water for the next runs. Some better sampling in the next few days will get a better read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 with all of the agonizing over OP runs, we're still looking at a cold, active pattern with a tall AK ridge, west based -NAO blocking, confluence, and a Pacific trough undercutting. the more you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, the more things look the same 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z GFS clown map way over done no? edit: I just realized that ends at hour 276 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: way over done no? I think it its too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 13 minutes ago, David-LI said: way over done no? Around the city yeah its like mid 30s so would have to be really heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Is it spring yet? It's coming.... I caught jonah crabs in my crab pots today. They generally start showing up around now for their late winter and early spring migration into the bay and then back out to 60 feet of water. But... they don't usually show up in these numbers until March. Very good news, because as great as they are for Tautog bait, they are also excellent table fare. Mother nature always shows her hand with natural signs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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