February 2024

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Does 2001-02 hold the record for the entire winter? It's going to be difficult to beat that one.

The record is 37 days (2011-12 and 2022-23).

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But if you go by "hot days"-- defined as the number of days with the most highs of 90 or higher, that peaked in the 90s didn't it? Do you think we'll challenge those records again at some point?

 

90° days have more than doubled at stations like ISP but the rate of increase at places like EWR is a little slower.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

90° days have more than doubled at stations like ISP but the rate of increase at places like EWR is a little slower.

It would be interesting to see if the increase (if there is one) at JFK has matched ISP or is more like NYC and EWR and has leveled off some.

 

[SACRUS]

 

31 sunny low of 22.  Dry and Warmer each day starting Wed - sat.  Still think we may deal with some clouds and perhaps passing showers on Sat.  Colder Feb 13 onwards - storm around  2/13 - 2/14.  Overall below normal the period starting the 2/13 - 2/24.

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

31 sunny low of 22.  Dry and Warmer each day starting Wed - sat.  Still think we may deal with some clouds and perhaps passing showers on Sat.  Colder Feb 13 onwards - storm around  2/13 - 2/14.  Overall below normal the period starting the 2/13 - 2/24.

 

Yeah, all the ensembles agree of a long stretch of below normal weather starting on the 13th 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Forky, we agree on everything about climate change, but you can actually get 50" even in a warmer winter.  2015-16 is a case in point.  JFK had 40" with an average 40 degree plus temperature for the winter.  There were parts of Long Island that actually received 50" that winter.  It just needs a high end historic storm like we had that winter.... so say we have another 30" snowstorm, now you only need 20" for the rest of the winter to get there.

 

The highest figure for winter 2015-16 in the NYC region, including Long Island, was 42.2” at Middle Village 0.5 SW.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:
 

EWR:69 (2008)
NYC: 68 (2008)
LGA: 69 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 5 (1995)
NYC: -5 (1895)
LGA: 4 (1995)

 

Historical:

 

1807 - It was the famous "Cold Friday" in the Midwest and South. The temperature did not rise above zero in Ohio and Kentucky. (David Ludlum)

1978 - A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. Storm totals included 18 inches at New York City, 16 inches at Philadelphia, and 14 inches at Baltimore. The Boston MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard" and the mayor outlawed travel in the city for an entire week. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Brownsville, TX, was deluged with seven inches of rain in just two hours, and flooding in some parts of the city was worse than that caused by Hurricane Beulah in 1967. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the south central and eastern U.S. Sixteen cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced a foot of snow at Arcade NY in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty-one cities in the western U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of -30 degrees at Ely NV and -33 degrees at Richfield UT were all-time records. Morning lows of 31 degrees at San Francisco CA and -15 degrees at Reno NV were records for February. Logan Canyon UT was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 54 degrees below zero, and Craig CO hit 51 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A second cold front brought more heavy snow to the high elevations of Oregon, with 12 inches reported at Sunset Summit. Ten inches of snow blanketed Crater Lake and Mount Bachelor. Heavy snow also blanketed northeastern Nevada and parts of Washington State. In Nevada, up to a foot of snow was reported between Spring Creek and Lamoille. Stevens Pass WA received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - On February 5-6, a severe nor'easter, commonly referred to as Snowmageddon, impacted the east coast from North Carolina to New York. Some snowfall amounts include; 32.9 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport; 28.5 inches at the Philadelphia International Airport; 21.1 inches at the Pittsburgh International Airport; 18.2 in Atlantic City; Trace in Central Park.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Feb '78

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The highest figure for winter 2015-16 in the NYC region, including Long Island, was 42.2” at Middle Village 0.5 SW.

Don, do you have a number for Hicksville? That's the one I read was 51" of snow.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Feb '78

 

 

 

Interesting-- NE PA and SNE both had over 30" of snow in this storm, but the areas in between were between 10-20

[dWave]

20 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I disagree that 09-10 is the limit. The global precipitation has been increasing with the warming. I think a more realistic expectation is that the temperature keeps increasing, but the number of bigger storms increases too. That was the trend in the early 2000s through about 2016, then 7-8 years off of it doesn't really break the overall trend imo. 

Look at how much precipitable water we have this year. 

https://ibb.co/NjZ5TZ8

No other year really comes close. 15-16 is #2, at about 80% of the total anomaly. 

I think it's a delicate balance. I suspect it leads to less persistent small to med snow events and snow cover, but more big storms every so often. A few blockbuster storms can push the numbers up but eventually you reach a tipping point where the warmer average temps are too difficult to overcome. Maybe that's what's happened in the DC area where avg snowfall starting falling off while we were rising to a new near 30" avg in Central Park. Meanwhile DCA has dropped to below 15". That tipping point would keep creeping northward I would think. We went to warmer and snowier for a time but the snowier part was a temporary transition?

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, do you have a number for Hicksville? That's the one I read was 51" of snow.

That was not a quality controlled number. The nearby station started reporting data on February 1, 2016, but didn’t report snowfall data. An earlier station in Hicksville stopped operating in 1938.

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, dWave said:

I think it's a delicate balance. I suspect it leads to less persistent small to med snow events and snow cover, but more big storms every so often. A few blockbuster storms can push the numbers up but eventually you reach a tipping point where the warmer average temps are too difficult to overcome. Maybe that's what's happened in the DC area where avg snowfall starting falling off while we were rising to a new near 30" avg in Central Park. Meanwhile DCA has dropped to below 15". That tipping point would keep creeping northward I would think. We went to warmer and snowier for a time but the snowier part was a temporary transition?

My guess is that the seasonal snowfall peaked in NYC during 2018 with the 10 year moving average getting close to 40”. We had a short term rise against a long term decline since around the 02-03 season. So the 2031 update of the climate normals will probably feature a decline in average snowfall vs the current 91-20 normals. But we can still sneak in good seasons like 20-21. Just that as time goes on they will probably become more the exception rather than the rule. And below normal snowfall seasons will eventually outpace above normal ones vs the decreasing 30 year means. 
 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But if you go by "hot days"-- defined as the number of days with the most highs of 90 or higher, that peaked in the 90s didn't it? Do you think we'll challenge those records again at some point?

 

The late 1980s to mid 1990s are the steroid era at first order sites: 

An Investigation of Temperature Discontinuities Introduced by the Installation of the HO-83 Thermometer on JSTOR

In Tucson, It's Not the Heat, It's the Thermometers - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Suspect in Record Highs: New Gauge - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[Allsnow]

With more juice NYC might get 50 In one storm 

 

 

[MJO812]

[Yanksfan]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If the pattern doesn’t produce a widespread MECS or HECS with those tellies and a southern jet on steroids, we both need to find a new hobby.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

If the pattern doesn’t produce a widespread MECS or HECS with those tellies and a southern jet on steroids, we both need to find a new hobby.

Agreed. If we don’t get a decent storm Out of this setup it’s time to find a new hobby 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Agreed. If we don’t get a decent storm Out of this setup it’s time to find a new hobby 

Good luck with that.  I have been sucked into this for over 50 years.  It’s not like you can just walk away from it… lol

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

If the pattern doesn’t produce a widespread MECS or HECS with those tellies and a southern jet on steroids, we both need to find a new hobby.

Unfortunately this happened a lot in the past (only producing moderate or minor events). 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've seen a lot of interviews done with businesses that rely on cold weather and snow in the Midwest (particularly in Minnesota and Wisconsin) talking about how their businesses have dried up the last couple of years and they don't see it as a sustainable business anymore.

 

To be fair, this is probably a knee jerk reaction to a terrible winter in the Northwoods. Last winter, Minneapolis had its third snowiest winter on record with 95", now they are on pace for their least. I go to northern Michigan every winter, and there's always plenty of snow to play in. This winter is honestly a first that i've seen it like this up there midwinter, although supposedly it happened in 1987 too. In southern Michigan, we have winter festivals and ice carving events, but we don't rely on winter economically like they do in the northern part of the state. The main thing here is plowing and salting, and there's been no decrease in snowfall. 

[NEG NAO]

12Z models= no snowstorm in sight and most of the colder air stays locked up in Canada at least through next week

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z models= no snowstorm in sight and most of the colder air stays locked up in Canada at least through next week

There is a storm on the models for next week. They are going to flip flop.  The models look good starting next week with cold air.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

There is a storm on the models for next week. They are going to flip flop.  The models look good starting next week with cold air.

The Monday system is probably too early in the progression of the pattern to really produce for us. After the 15th colder air gets established and then we see what happens…

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

To be fair, this is probably a knee jerk reaction to a terrible winter in the Northwoods. Last winter, Minneapolis had its third snowiest winter on record with 95", now they are on pace for their least. I go to northern Michigan every winter, and there's always plenty of snow to play in. This winter is honestly a first that i've seen it like this up there midwinter, although supposedly it happened in 1987 too. In southern Michigan, we have winter festivals and ice carving events, but we don't rely on winter economically like they do in the northern part of the state. The main thing here is plowing and salting, and there's been no decrease in snowfall. 

The main thing I have been seeing from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest is a shorter ice fishing season as places like International Falls have warmed about 6° during the winter since around 1950.  The warmer winters have resulted in increasing lake effect snows in spots with the warmer lakes and less ice. But even the warmest winters by International Falls standards like this year would be much colder than any winter around NYC. 
 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting-- NE PA and SNE both had over 30" of snow in this storm, but the areas in between were between 10-20

I think in many cases the snowfall reports were on the low side because of when the main part of the storm hit....in much of SNE and So Nh that was from the evening and overnight. There was considerable blowing and drifiting of snow. At the time I lived not too far from a cemetery that open level fields. During the day a friend and I went to the cemetery to take measurements.  Most of the measurements we took were in the 32-34 inch range.

I left my car parked in a parking lot overnight. When I woke up the next morning the car was completely covered in snow. Only a small part of the antennae was visible...

The heavy snow and the strong winds made that storm one of the most difficult for accurate snowfall measurements.

[Allsnow]

Really nice set up for Presidents’ Day weekend on the gfs fwiw 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The Monday system is probably too early in the progression of the pattern to really produce for us. After the 15th colder air gets established and then we see what happens…

Agree but maybe we can get lucky 

[Great Snow 1717]

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

To be fair, this is probably a knee jerk reaction to a terrible winter in the Northwoods. Last winter, Minneapolis had its third snowiest winter on record with 95", now they are on pace for their least. I go to northern Michigan every winter, and there's always plenty of snow to play in. This winter is honestly a first that i've seen it like this up there midwinter, although supposedly it happened in 1987 too. In southern Michigan, we have winter festivals and ice carving events, but we don't rely on winter economically like they do in the northern part of the state. The main thing here is plowing and salting, and there's been no decrease in snowfall. 

I don't think it is a  jerk reaction at all. I have seen the same here in SNE and So NH. Many landscapers have gotten out of the snow plowing business. A guy who lives not too far from me just put hi large pickup truck with a plow up for sale.

Many businesses have been negatively impacted by a string of terrible winters.

[Krs4Lfe]

It looks like over here, we'll peak around 57 degrees on Saturday, down to 51 on sunday, and then cooler for next week in time for the pattern change. Given that the 2/13 storm is likely to assist in initiating the pattern change, it may unfortunately be too early to expect any sort of snowstorm for the region. I believe the 12z GFS depicting a regionwide rainstorm is the likeliest option, given the torch weekend that we are heading towards. After that, it appears we have more cold air to work with, which would aid in producing snow for other storms that form past the mid-February range. Unfortunately, the background state naturally becomes warmer from this point on, and it will become harder for it snow (climatologically). So while we are heading towards a colder regime, it will take more than that to snow, and time continues to tick on. Regardless, the favorable pattern is just about 1 week away, it's a good pattern, but doesn't guarantee much of anything.