Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:04 PM, MJO812 said: No by people who are taunting a great pattern ahead by looking at the ensembles and long range models. Alot of forecasters are being cautious Expand Next 2 to 3 weeks could end up very dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 14 years ago so close but so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 5:22 AM, donsutherland1 said: 32 days for the MJO + specified teleconnections and 352 days for all other cases. Expand Thanks, although wouldn't "all other cases" for Feb from 1975 to 2023 be about 1342 (28 days/Feb x 48 Feb's)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:06 PM, Stormlover74 said: Next 2 to 3 weeks could end up very dry Expand we need this dry period the ground is too saturated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:06 PM, Stormlover74 said: Next 2 to 3 weeks could end up very dry Expand Agree That's the worry about getting a cold pattern. Could be a Mid Atlantic pattern. Hopefully we get some piece of it if that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:13 PM, MJO812 said: Agree That's the worry about getting a cold pattern. Could be a Mid Atlantic pattern. Hopefully we get some piece of it if that happens. Expand the models and other guidance will indicate this possibility one way or the other very soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January. Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore. Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:26 PM, Picard said: February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January. Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore. Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July. Expand that wildfire smoke was coming from whatever was going on in Canada......just so happened the wind direction favored it coming our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:23 PM, NEG NAO said: the models and other guidance will indicate this possibility one way or the other very soon Expand Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast. Syracuse is 50 inches below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:33 PM, MJO812 said: Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast. Syracuse is 50 inches below normal. Expand Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:33 PM, MJO812 said: Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast. Syracuse is 50 inches below normal. Expand I wish the people saying how awesome the pattern looks could just admit that suppression is a possibility 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:25 PM, Brian5671 said: dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter Expand DC only needs 6 inches to reach average. That would add to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:35 PM, Brian5671 said: Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. Expand Atmosphere got tired from last year in Minnesota. On 2/5/2024 at 2:36 PM, Stormlover74 said: I wish the people saying how awesome the pattern looks could just admit that suppression is a possibility Expand They should because it's legit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:07 PM, RU848789 said: Thanks, although wouldn't "all other cases" for Feb from 1975 to 2023 be about 1342 (28 days/Feb x 48 Feb's)? Expand Typo: Should be 1,352. I accidentally omitted the 1000s in the first post on this matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 AO is crashing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:35 PM, Brian5671 said: Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. Expand Only 1930-31 (6.8") had less snow through February 4th than this winter (7.3"). Winter 1930-31 finished with 14.2". Winter 2023-24 is so far the warmest on record for Minneapolis (28.7° mean temperature vs. 27.4° in 1877-78). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:35 PM, Brian5671 said: Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year. Expand Don’t feel bad, they had close to 100 last winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:44 PM, Allsnow said: Don’t feel bad, they had close to 100 last winter Expand yeah at least they had that...we're on the road to 2 epic clunkers in a row. the year after our worst winters usually fared better (02-03 and 12-13) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:25 PM, Brian5671 said: dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter Expand What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:25 PM, Brian5671 said: dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter Expand Grade F- winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:48 PM, jm1220 said: What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it. Expand Yep-very similar to last year outside of a week of cold in mid Jan another top 10 warmest winter in NYC is all but guaranteed....haven't used my snowblower since Jan 2022 was in Home Depot yesterday-all the winter merchandise sitting there with dust on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 2:05 PM, MJO812 said: People need to realize that 1 Mecs/ Hecs storm can bring NYC near normal and the pattern ahead can certainly do that. Expand Sure anything is possible, but relying on a HECS as a Hail Mary to bring us up to normal kinda reeks of desperation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 3:08 PM, HailMan06 said: Sure anything is possible, but relying on a HECS as a Hail Mary to bring us up to normal kinda reeks of desperation. Expand We've been reeking of that for 2 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 I guess the one bright spot for the power demand is that it’s climatologically easier to get +5 to +10 and greater departures during the cold season from the Upper Midwest to Northeast than in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 God Forbid we see +5 or +8 in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 The near mid-month pattern change remains on track. Both the latest ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 are in strong agreement concerning the February 19-25 period: ECMWF Weeklies: 1°C to 3°C below normal Note: Download issues precluded providing the full map with its corresponding temperature scale The CFSv2: In addition, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has now gone negative. Its preliminary value for today is -0.369. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 3:15 PM, Brian5671 said: God Forbid we see +5 or +8 in July Expand ..the day is coming... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 26 last night. At least the bugs are being held at bay for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 5, 2024 Share Posted February 5, 2024 On 2/5/2024 at 3:36 PM, psv88 said: 26 last night. At least the bugs are being held at bay for now. Expand Did see a robin on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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