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February 2024


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February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January.  Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore.  Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July.

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  On 2/5/2024 at 2:26 PM, Picard said:

February could end up well below normal precipitation, which isn't necessarily a bad thing coming off of a saturated December and early January.  Still, I'm always careful what I wish for since it's seems either feast or famine with precipitation anymore.  Remember how dry last spring was, burned up lawns by June, and the wildfire smoke, and then the faucet opened up in July.

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that wildfire smoke was coming from whatever was going on in Canada......just so happened the wind direction favored it coming our way

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  On 2/5/2024 at 2:35 PM, Brian5671 said:

Upper midwest too.  Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year.   

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Atmosphere got tired from last year in Minnesota. 

  On 2/5/2024 at 2:36 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I wish the people saying how awesome the pattern looks could just admit that suppression is a possibility 

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They should because it's legit.

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  On 2/5/2024 at 2:35 PM, Brian5671 said:

Upper midwest too.  Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year.   

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Only 1930-31 (6.8") had less snow through February 4th than this winter (7.3"). Winter 1930-31 finished with 14.2". Winter 2023-24 is so far the warmest on record for Minneapolis (28.7° mean temperature vs. 27.4° in 1877-78).

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  On 2/5/2024 at 2:48 PM, jm1220 said:

What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it. 

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Yep-very similar to last year outside of a week of cold in mid Jan another top 10 warmest winter in NYC is all but guaranteed....haven't used my snowblower since Jan 2022 was in Home Depot yesterday-all the winter merchandise sitting there with dust on it...

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The near mid-month pattern change remains on track. Both the latest ECMWF weeklies and CFSv2 are in strong agreement concerning the February 19-25 period:

ECMWF Weeklies: 1°C to 3°C below normal

image.png.b47c89cbf70c70f46c347854f76f75ee.png

Note: Download issues precluded providing the full map with its corresponding temperature scale

The CFSv2:

image.png.e4ada852620de0c1530b2faac6c5c3ea.png

In addition, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has now gone negative. Its preliminary value for today is -0.369.

 

 

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