cleetussnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 52 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Better ??? Also its too far out to even speculate 9 days? Is fine to speculate. Thats what we do here…the storm is there, albeit 500 miles south of 12z….so, it IS ‘there’ and thats not meaningless. Its been ‘there’ for a few days. Where is ‘there’ going to be? We can speculate on that, and I say, not where that map puts it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: why is this image showing green over the metro ? Bc it's raining 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: Thanks for confirming those were temps in those regimes and that it was a typo on the PNA. Too bad there's not snow data for those regimes, since 95% of the poster on these boards are snow hounds and the $64K question for all of them is, what level of confidence do we have that the coming pattern will actually deliver at least normal snowfall, if not well above average snowfall and maybe even a KU storm. In their backyards. Will be interesting to watch it all unfold... For MJO Phases 1,8 (Amplitude 1.000 or above), AO-, EPO-, NAO-, PNA+: February 1975-2023 % of days: 2" or more snow: 27% 4" or more snow: 18% For all other cases: February 1975-2023: 2" or more snow: 17% 4" or more: 10% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. Makes sense for why it's so hard to get it below freezing around here in midwinter even on a north wind lol. February 2015 was the polar opposite of this (pun intended!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Bullish run on the 18z GEFS for the period starting after next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Bc it's raining Yeah, I don’t know why it would supposed to be showing snow. The low is hugging the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Lovely run so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The details don't really matter here, as those will change hugely in coming days - it's just cool to see a significant threat possibly (we all know this may disappear or fizzle) on the table to kick off the pattern change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: The details don't really matter here, as those will change hugely in coming days - it's just cool to see a significant threat possibly (we all know this may disappear or fizzle) on the table to kick off the pattern change. Cmc is much more amped. Euro is in the middle right now. It's a bonus like you stated before the pattern change . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 this will only be considered real if shown by other models multiple runs IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is much more amped. Euro is in the middle right now. It's a bonus like you stated before the pattern change . Going to stay awake for the 0z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: For MJO Phases 1,8 (Amplitude 1.000 or above), AO-, EPO-, NAO-, PNA+: February 1975-2023 % of days: 2" or more snow: 27% 4" or more snow: 18% For all other cases: February 1975-2023: 2" or more snow: 17% 4" or more: 10% Fantastic - you're the best! That's roughly a 60-80% enhancement for having those conditions in place. One last question: can you share how many cases there were in total (although I guess that's 10% of 28 days/yr x 48 yrs or 10% of 1344 or 134 days of 2" in total for example, but I can't tell the number of cases for the specific conditions) and for the specific conditions and is this for NYC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 this is more realistic IMO for next week - soaking rain storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Going to stay awake for the 0z EURO? No I'm exhausted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, NEG NAO said: this is more realistic IMO for next week Euro is the middle ground but it all depends on how much phasing this does out west and if there is a lead wave to dampen the heights. But anyway after this, game on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro is the middle ground but it all depends on how much phasing this does out west and if there is a lead wave to dampen the heights. But anyway after this, game on. EURO at this range hasn't been so accurate this season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro is the middle ground but it all depends on how much phasing this does out west and if there is a lead wave to dampen the heights. But anyway after this, game on. So this is the storm that changes the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, LibertyBell said: So this is the storm that changes the pattern. yes but too what ?? No big deal IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Last time I remember him honking this hard, March 2018 happened. But having it happen 2-3 weeks earlier makes a big difference climo wise for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: yes but too what ?? No big deal IMO If nothing wintry happens, then the pattern change will just be from rainy to dry and then back to rainy and then dry again lol. It's not even cold so we can't really say it "feels" like winter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Last time I remember him honking this hard, March 2018 happened. But having it happen 2-3 weeks earlier makes a big difference climo wise for us. That was amazing and not just for us, for a huge part of the country from the Midwest to the east coast and it lasted into April for us and for all of April for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: If nothing wintry happens, then the pattern change will just be from rainy to dry and then back to rainy and then dry again lol. It's not even cold so we can't really say it "feels" like winter either. it feels like winter out there tonight upper 20's but with bare ground doesn't look like winter this season here we have had barely a weeks worth of snow cover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Last time I remember him honking this hard, March 2018 happened. But having it happen 2-3 weeks earlier makes a big difference climo wise for us. It's hard to ignore all the signals for a pattern change . It will get colder and it will snow but the question is how much . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: it feels like winter out there tonight upper 20's but with bare ground doesn't feel like winter this season here we have had barely a weeks worth of snow cover More this winter than last winter lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 20 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Fantastic - you're the best! That's roughly a 60-80% enhancement for having those conditions in place. One last question: can you share how many cases there were in total (although I guess that's 10% of 28 days/yr x 48 yrs or 10% of 1344 or 134 days of 2" in total for example, but I can't tell the number of cases for the specific conditions) and for the specific conditions and is this for NYC? 32 days for the MJO + specified teleconnections and 352 days for all other cases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: More this winter than last winter lol Don wrote this in a post here earlier yesterday (Sunday) and this is why I say it will be no big deal "Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Don wrote this in a post here earlier yesterday (Sunday) and this is why I say it will be no big deal "Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather." The interesting thing is, this isn't just random or dumb luck. The winters that were already snowy like 2004-05 return to being snowy even after a warm 10 day stretch like we've having. And the winters that weren't snowy before, usually aren't snowy after that either. 2017-18 was similar, we had an early season big snowstorm, and then a mild to even warm February and then back to snowy for March and early April. Other seasons like that were 1966-67 and 1995-96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Great disco: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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