Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,788
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Cabby
    Newest Member
    Cabby
    Joined

February 2024

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

 Share

Recommended Posts

cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted
  On 2/4/2024 at 10:33 PM, NEG NAO said:

Better ??? Also its too far out to even speculate

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

Expand  

9 days?  Is fine to speculate.  Thats what we do here…the storm is there, albeit 500 miles south of 12z….so, it IS ‘there’ and thats not meaningless.  Its been ‘there’ for a few days.  Where is ‘there’ going to be?  We can speculate on that, and I say, not where that map puts it.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) ca

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

it’s kind of discouraging posting in here. i get that people are jaded and pessimistic, but just making stuff up to be negative is a different story. that’s just bittercasting  there hasn’t been

donsutherland1
donsutherland1

On account of what amounted to an autumn that extended through most of February, blossoms are out early at the New York Botanical Garden. Inside the Enid Haupt Conservatory, T

Posted Images

donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
  On 2/4/2024 at 9:48 PM, RU848789 said:

Thanks for confirming those were temps in those regimes and that it was a typo on the PNA.  Too bad there's not snow data for those regimes, since 95% of the poster on these boards are snow hounds and the $64K question for all of them is, what level of confidence do we have that the coming pattern will actually deliver at least normal snowfall, if not well above average snowfall and maybe even a KU storm.  In their backyards.  Will be interesting to watch it all unfold...

Expand  

For MJO Phases 1,8 (Amplitude 1.000 or above), AO-, EPO-, NAO-, PNA+: February 1975-2023

% of days:

2" or more snow: 27%

4" or more snow: 18%

For all other cases: February 1975-2023:

2" or more snow: 17%

4" or more: 10%

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 2/4/2024 at 11:42 PM, bluewave said:

The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. 
 

C6100126-DBE1-4244-BD41-E9CFC938CFF1.png.26f537b312eb62556d9d879e2aa54c83.png
6E660604-6694-43B7-9888-ED942A12D32F.thumb.png.a7bcca6a246c9c3e9f98006bd95c4faa.png

A438185B-6BCF-4F6F-B1F6-DE28A517C9A9.thumb.png.37b5f756e3bb1b89b4f2b1f447f1ab92.png

Expand  

Makes sense for why it's so hard to get it below freezing around here in midwinter even on a north wind lol.

February 2015 was the polar opposite of this (pun intended!)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 4:41 AM, RU848789 said:

The details don't really matter here, as those will change hugely in coming days - it's just cool to see a significant threat possibly (we all know this may disappear or fizzle) on the table to kick off the pattern change.

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

Expand  

Cmc is much more amped.  Euro is in the middle right now. It's a bonus like you stated before the pattern change .

 

65c066d10e533.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 12:44 AM, donsutherland1 said:

For MJO Phases 1,8 (Amplitude 1.000 or above), AO-, EPO-, NAO-, PNA+: February 1975-2023

% of days:

2" or more snow: 27%

4" or more snow: 18%

For all other cases: February 1975-2023:

2" or more snow: 17%

4" or more: 10%

Expand  

Fantastic - you're the best!  That's roughly a 60-80% enhancement for having those conditions in place.  One last question: can you share how many cases there were in total (although I guess that's 10% of 28 days/yr x 48 yrs or 10% of 1344 or 134 days of 2" in total for example, but I can't tell the number of cases for the specific conditions) and for the specific conditions and is this for NYC?  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 5:05 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Last time I remember him honking this hard, March 2018 happened. 

But having it happen 2-3 weeks earlier makes a big difference climo wise for us.

Expand  

That was amazing and not just for us, for a huge part of the country from the Midwest to the east coast and it lasted into April for us and for all of April for the Midwest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 5:07 AM, LibertyBell said:

If nothing wintry happens, then the pattern change will just be from rainy to dry and then back to rainy and then dry again lol.

It's not even cold so we can't really say it "feels" like winter either.

 

Expand  

it feels like winter out there tonight upper 20's but with bare ground doesn't look like winter this season here we have had barely a weeks worth of snow cover

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 5:05 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Last time I remember him honking this hard, March 2018 happened. 

But having it happen 2-3 weeks earlier makes a big difference climo wise for us.

Expand  

It's hard to ignore all the signals for a pattern change . It will get colder and it will snow but the question is how much .

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 5:00 AM, RU848789 said:

Fantastic - you're the best!  That's roughly a 60-80% enhancement for having those conditions in place.  One last question: can you share how many cases there were in total (although I guess that's 10% of 28 days/yr x 48 yrs or 10% of 1344 or 134 days of 2" in total for example, but I can't tell the number of cases for the specific conditions) and for the specific conditions and is this for NYC?  

Expand  

32 days for the MJO + specified teleconnections and 352 days for all other cases.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 5:16 AM, MJO812 said:

More this winter than last winter lol

Expand  

Don wrote this in a post here earlier yesterday (Sunday) and this is why I say it will be no big deal

 

"Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season.

The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather."

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 2/5/2024 at 5:30 AM, NEG NAO said:

Don wrote this in a post here earlier yesterday (Sunday) and this is why I say it will be no big deal

 

"Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season.

The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather."

Expand  

The interesting thing is, this isn't just random or dumb luck.  The winters that were already snowy like 2004-05 return to being snowy even after a warm 10 day stretch like we've having.  And the winters that weren't snowy before, usually aren't snowy after that either.

2017-18 was similar, we had an early season big snowstorm, and then a mild to even warm February and then back to snowy for March and early April.  Other seasons like that were 1966-67 and 1995-96.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...