EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s mostly Pacific air under the block as the weeklies don’t look very cold into late February. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. So February should finish with warmer than normal departures due to the warmth into mid month. Feb 5-12 Feb 12-19 Feb 19-26 Yeah this is prime for the Middle Atlantic and perhaps southeast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: The one storm winter 1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches. This was my first foot plus storm since 1983 (had 11.5 in March 93 superstorm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we should see IO forcing for a while. nice The warming waters in the IO are helping us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s for this week… pattern improves after the 15th. Not sure why @snowman19and @bluewave don’t like this h5 look NYC hasn’t had a 4”+ snow event since the Pacific became more hostile in 18-19 with a trough near the Baja. NYC has had 8 events of 4” or more since then. But hopefully the late February period turns out to be a first so NYC can finally end the under 2” streak. 8 storm 500 mb composite for NYC of 4”+ since November 2018 SW ridge into Rockies and 50/50 low to the east of Newfoundland. Forecast 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC hasn’t had a 4”+ snow event since the Pacific became more hostile in 18-19 with a trough near the Baja. NYC has had 8 events of 4” or more since then. But hopefully the late February period turns out to be a first so NYC can finally end the under 2” streak. 8 storm composite for NYC of 4”+ since November 2018 SW ridge into Rockies and 50/50 low to the east of Newfoundland. Forecast Can’t amplify up the coast in that pattern. Maybe mid Atlantic this works but even then the cold isn’t impressive 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Pacific influence has been overpowering in both La Niñas and El Niños in recent years. The trough always finds a way to sneak into the Western US whether we have a +PNA or -PNA. When there is a Southeast ridge in place the lows cut to the Lakes or hug the coast. When we don’t have a SE Ridge in place like tomorrow the lows get suppressed to our south. So there is more that can go wrong with a trough out West down to the Baja and we really need luck on our side. This is EXACTLY what we witnessed 70 through 99. I mentioned probably 100 times. Cold and dry warm and wet over and over. SE slider or wound up cutter or Hugger. We thought the hugger was "extinct" (as well as the clipper), yet now they are back. History just repeats itself. I was thinking the ocean temps would hinder a repeat of that time period, and keep a semi permanent SE ridge to allow all those suppressed snowstorms to get us, however it's just the same. I really do feel good for the MA and SE though. While we wait and wait, they are still cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Can’t amplify up the coast in that pattern. Maybe mid Atlantic this works but even then the cold isn’t impressive It's plenty cold enough for the MA. The southeast would need timing with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Borrowed from the MA forum. Cold will not be the issue at all unless a storm over amplifiers. Unlikely as Bluewave pointed out with the Pacific. As Don noted a good shot at moderate events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC hasn’t had a 4”+ snow event since the Pacific became more hostile in 18-19 with a trough near the Baja. NYC has had 8 events of 4” or more since then. But hopefully the late February period turns out to be a first so NYC can finally end the under 2” streak. 8 storm 500 mb composite for NYC of 4”+ since November 2018 SW ridge into Rockies and 50/50 low to the east of Newfoundland. Forecast we’ve had a ton of Ninas since 2018 and this is a blocky Nino pattern. the composites from those years won’t really hold water here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we’ve had a ton of Ninas since 2018 and this is a blocky Nino pattern. the composites from those years won’t really hold water here Yeah, he always says we need to storms to be south of us so they trend north closer in time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Allsnow said: Yeah, he always says we need to storms to be south of us so they trend north closer in time the stretched TPV migrating to the 50/50 region alongside a retrograding and decaying -NAO is a signal for a large storm, especially when you have a potent STJ involved. i don’t think that’s unreasonable at all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: the stretched TPV migrating to the 50/50 region alongside a retrograding and decaying -NAO is a signal for a large storm, especially when you have a potent STJ involved. i don’t think that’s unreasonable at all With that ridge west of ideal I don’t fear suppression 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 and it’s more than cold enough, you don’t need vodka cold for big snow. if it’s too cold, i’m sure i’d hear people here complaining a lack of moisture or something lmao there is ALWAYS something to criticize with patterns, but it’s worth illustrating potential as well 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Allsnow said: With that ridge west of ideal I don’t fear suppression we’re in a good spot. i’d be more nervous up towards Boston 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 53 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah this is prime for the Middle Atlantic and perhaps southeast. Richmond’s February 16 and later snowfall is less sensitive to bad starts than NYC’s, because snowfall opportunities are already more dispersed in its warmer climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Looked good until the last 48 hrs. Rainer. Again, another punt. Let’s get within field goal range with one this winter and try to put up 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, cleetussnow said: Looked good until the last 48 hrs. Rainer. Again, another punt. Let’s get within field goal range with one this winter and try to put up 3. this is for the 13th... I would expect a rainer at that time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 58 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we’ve had a ton of Ninas since 2018 and this is a blocky Nino pattern. the composites from those years won’t really hold water here Sure they will. Here is the the 2016 to 2018 composite which includes the 15-16 super El Niño. There were 9 events of 4”+ in NYC over these 3 seasons. The composite is the same with a ridge near the Baja to Rockies and not a trough. It’s possible that we could get to late February and we get a transient ridge pop near the Baja into Rockies .But that probably won’t show up until the shorter range. That would be what we would want to see. But a LR smoothed out 500 mb mean probably wouldn’t be able to have that kind of detail. 9 snowstorm composite for NYC 4”+ from 15-16 to 17-18 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Sure they will. Here is the the 2016 to 2018 composite which includes the 15-16 super El Niño. There were 9 events of 4”+ in NYC over these 3 seasons. The composite is the same with a ridge near the Baja to Rockies and not a trough. It’s possible that we could get to late February and we get a transient ridge pop near the Baja into Rockies .But that probably won’t show up until the shorter range. That would be what we would want to see. But a LR smoothed out 500 mb mean probably wouldn’t be able to have that kind of detail. 9 snowstorm composite for NYC 4”+ from 15-16 to 17-18 I agree that once we do get a storm, there is likely a transient Rockies ridge that forms from the trough in the GoA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/3/2024 at 8:15 AM, donsutherland1 said: Such combinations are not common in February, especially with the MJO's being in Phase 1. Don - thanks, although I'm not 100% sure what your table is showing. Is that monthly average temp for both cities under the teleconnection/MJO conditions specified? If so, clearly those conditions lead to significantly colder temps (typically a >2F departure from the overall mean puts one into "colder than normal"). Also, is that supposed to be PNA+, not PNA-? And lastly, any data on snowfall under these conditions relative to normal? I would guess snowier than normal or else people wouldn't get so excited when patterns featuring these conditions develop, as it looks like they will soon. Thanks again. Also, it's amazing what data you're able to find and put together - it's like you have access to a database for all weather data from every city in a way that allows easy data extraction from queries - does that actually exist (and is it available to all)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I’m supposed to be heading to VT on Fri with my wife for a snowshoeing/hiking trip for a few days for my bday, been planning for months. Of course I select the exact dates of a massive thermal spike after VT has been subfreezing for over a week lol. A little dejected, was excited to get into some dry powder and not slosh around in melty muddy crap. It’s not even just going to be AN, it’s looking crazy warm up there. This was my relative fail safe if the rest of winter doesn’t pan out here, and of course I know there’s always the risk of uncooperative weather I’m just extra miffed because the conditions have been good leading in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I agree that once we do get a storm, there is likely a transient Rockies ridge that forms from the trough in the GoA I am hoping we get a more prominent ridge pop up near the Rockies once we get closer to late February coupled with just cold enough and the right storm track. I put together an El Niño composite for 7 events of 4” or more in NYC from 09-10 to 15-16. This included the 09-10, 14-15 and 15-16 El Niños. This composite featured a stronger ridge out West than currently forecast. We would need the 50/50 vortex to shift further east allowing more of a trough over the Southeast US. Plus the Pacific Jet backing off just enough for a stronger ridge out West than currently forecast to allow enough storm separation so the one to the west doesn’t act as a kicker. 7 snowstorm composite in NYC of 4” or more during the 15-16, 14-15, and 09-10 El Niño’s Current forecast for late February 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 14 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Don - thanks, although I'm not 100% sure what your table is showing. Is that monthly average temp for both cities under the teleconnection/MJO conditions specified? If so, clearly those conditions lead to significantly colder temps (typically a >2F departure from the overall mean puts one into "colder than normal"). Also, is that supposed to be PNA+, not PNA-? And lastly, any data on snowfall under these conditions relative to normal? I would guess snowier than normal or else people wouldn't get so excited when patterns featuring these conditions develop, as it looks like they will soon. Thanks again. Also, it's amazing what data you're able to find and put together - it's like you have access to a database for all weather data from every city in a way that allows easy data extraction from queries - does that actually exist (and is it available to all)? Typo, it was a PNA+. It shows that the days with such a pattern in February are colder than climatology. Unfortunately, no such database exists for all the variables. Some of the data is revised fairly frequently. MJO phases and amplitudes, especially for recent dates, are revised every few months by the Bureau of Meteorology. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Gefs looks great if you are a winter weenie. Now let's get some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Wouldn't be surprised to see the biggest snow event this season in March if the mid Feb pattern rolls forward. A trough in the SW has less of an effect on us in late winter due to changing wavelengths. I also hope that doesn't happen, I don't care about March snows unless it's a KU system so Feb 15-29 is it for me. Put up or shut up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Inland areas do good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I think the storm is real. The placement and strength is up in the air. We have the AO crashing along with the PNA rising. NAO is also going down. The pattern changes after this storm around the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think the storm is real. The placement and strength is up in the air. We have the AO crashing along with the PNA rising. NAO is also going down. The pattern changes after this storm around the 13th. pattern changes to what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: pattern changes to what ? Cold and possibly snowy What do you think ? It has been said by everyone that a pattern change is coming. Everything supports it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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