February 2024

[snowman19]

  On 2/3/2024 at 11:41 AM, bluewave said:

It’s a borderline super El Niño with a supercharged STJ pattern this month. So it looks like the primary storm track later this month will be to our south. But it only takes one to bump further north once we get within the 120hr period for NYC to break its 2”+ snowstorm drought. 
 

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@bluewave Did you notice the rapid strengthening/warming going on with the El Nino? Region 3.4 is over +1.9C again. Region 3 is also almost +2C

 

[wdrag]

Regarding winter prospects last two weeks of Feb.  CPC Friday week 3-4 (appended) and Tomer mirror each other, drier and cooler than normal here. It's ensemble guidance and imperfect. A bump north and we're good as Bluewave mentioned. 

My problem: the D8-14 from the NAEFS still has us warmer than normal 11th-18th., albeit attempting to cool around the 14th and after.   So what?  Cause, the 06z/3 GEFS 24 snow depth change appended here, shows what we may be suspecting.  Elevation dependent snow snowfall is more prominent and inland (climo?).  Think it might take a while to rid ourselves of the modified Pacific airmass which at this point in my mind doesn't bode well for NYC/LI. At least the SST's are near normal.

So my hope for this pattern to produce continues, in part due to the more favorable 5H structure, in part due to a reliable long ranger that likes the option for a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter- (communications since last summer), and in part due to  what I see is the verifying CNN story Dec 2 post, appended. I just need to live well outside of weather, prior to something budding favorably.

If interested-click the graphics for a little more clarity. 

[jr461]

  On 2/2/2024 at 9:12 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Potential for. I mean every winter month has potential for 15 inches. Seasonal forecasts called for potential for 30 to 40". It's not really a forecast 

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Typical click-bait headline.  He says "potential", which is saying nothing really; headline says "likely", to get you to look.

[Snowlover11]

What is this yellow thing shining bright in the sky?

[NEG NAO]

  On 2/3/2024 at 12:04 PM, wdrag said:

Regarding winter prospects last two weeks of Feb.  CPC Friday week 3-4 (appended) and Tomer mirror each other, drier and cooler than normal here. It's ensemble guidance and imperfect. A bump north and we're good as Bluewave mentioned. 

My problem: the D8-14 from the NAEFS still has us warmer than normal 11th-18th., albeit attempting to cool around the 14th and after.   So what?  Cause, the 06z/3 GEFS 24 snow depth change appended here, shows what we may be suspecting.  Elevation dependent snow snowfall is more prominent and inland (climo?).  Think it might take a while to rid ourselves of the modified Pacific airmass which at this point in my mind doesn't bode well for NYC/LI. At least the SST's are near normal.

So my hope for this pattern to produce continues, in part due to the more favorable 5H structure, in part due to a reliable long ranger that likes the option for a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter- (communications since last summer), and in part due to  what I see is the verifying CNN story Dec 2 post, appended. I just need to live well outside of weather, prior to something budding favorably.

If interested-click the graphics for a little more clarity. 

 

 

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What is your definition of " a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter" ?????

[donsutherland1]

  On 2/3/2024 at 4:30 AM, RU848789 said:

Does there exist, anywhere, data on what a pattern like what is being forecast (generally, i.e., at least -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA and MJO in 8/1) might typically produce in winter in, say, the NE or maybe at least NYC Metro, especially in January and February? I know not all patterns are the same (ENSO state being a big variable), but just looking for whether anyone has done the work to determine this. Personally, I've tracked about 8 fairly similar patterns since 2016 and saw that all 8 verified for colder than normal temps and 5 verified for snowier than normal outcomes (one would expect random guessing to verify 2-3 out of 8) for the 2-3 week periods I was following (did this for New Brunswick and vs. above/normal/below for those two parameters vs. all seasons for the period in question), but that's a fairly small sample size and I didn't rigorously track the teleconnections beyond what was forecast about 8-10 days out. Would be cool to have a much larger, more accurate dataset to have some idea of the confidence of a pattern like this actually producing snow, in particular.  @donsutherland1- any chance something like that exists?  If anyone would know, I think it would be you...

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Such combinations are not common in February, especially with the MJO's being in Phase 1.

[NEG NAO]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:01 PM, Snowlover11 said:

What is this yellow thing shining bright in the sky?

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still alot of cloud cover out there in NJ and you knows what will develop during the day - Upton usually does a poor job of predicting cloud coverage...

[donsutherland1]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:01 PM, Snowlover11 said:

What is this yellow thing shining bright in the sky?

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I hope MJO812 didn't just "like" this post, but is taking this matter seriously and investigating this strange phenomenon to ensure that we are all safe.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:18 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I hope MJO812 didn't just "like" this post, but is taking this matter seriously and investigating this strange phenomenon to ensure that we are all safe.

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Hopefully we got all the clouds out of the way so April isn't a repeat of January.... it would suck to have cloud cover on the day of the eclipse.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:01 PM, Snowlover11 said:

What is this yellow thing shining bright in the sky?

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Having to wear sunglasses because we're not used to such bright skies!

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/3/2024 at 11:24 AM, snowman19 said:

My point is that no one will give a s*** if all this pattern does is get it cold. Like Tomer Burg showed, this pattern carries a high risk of suppression. If this does turn out to be a suppressed pattern, you and everyone else will call it a HUGE fail

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This is what happened in March 2014.

 

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/3/2024 at 8:39 AM, MJO812 said:

He doesn't have balls. He Is a conservative forecaster.

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Snowman really hates that it could snow. Everything I've ever seen from him has been anti-winter. 

Now he thinks they'll be suppression. So far this Nino has produced one of the wettest Dec-Jan periods for us and he thinks they'll be suppression.

Delusional thinking 

[WX-PA]

  On 2/3/2024 at 11:50 AM, snowman19 said:

@bluewave Did you notice the rapid strengthening/warming going on with the El Nino? Region 3.4 is over +1.9C again. Region 3 is also almost +2C

 

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So your telling us what we already know. It's been a warm.snowless strong nino winter.What is a spike in February going to mean? We are hoping for a 2 week window later in the month for something. After that it's over.Does it mean that the warm spike in enso means it's not going to snow later in the month? 

[North and West]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:01 PM, Snowlover11 said:

What is this yellow thing shining bright in the sky?

.

[SACRUS]

 

36 partly cloudy. 7 or 8 of 9 overall dry days coming up and warmer than normal as a whole.  Sunshine should sustain Sun -Thu next week.  Beyond there mid month chill down.

 

 

 

[wdrag]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:15 PM, NEG NAO said:

What is your definition of " a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter" ?????

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My call 6+.  His call I dont know,  but I do know that we're not talking 1-3" climo.   

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (1991)
NYC: 64 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 1 (1955)
NYC: 0 (1955)
LGA: 1 (1955)


Historical:

1844: Boston Harbor was so thick with ice on this date that a channel had to be cut through the ice for the "Britannia" ship to leave with 30,000 letters for England.

1917 - Downtown Miami, FL, reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The temperature at Tanacross, AK, plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

 

1959: At 12:55 am Central Time, a plane took off from runway 17 at the Mason City, Iowa airport, carrying the lives of Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson. At the time of departure, the weather was reported as light snow, a ceiling of 3,000 feet with sky obscured, visibility 6 miles, and winds from 20 to 30 mph. At around 9:35 am, Hubert Jerry Dwyer spotted the wreckage less than 6 miles northwest of the airport. The three musicians and the pilot died from this crash.

1987 - Wintry weather was confined to freezing drizzle and light snow in the northeastern U.S., and light rain and snow in the western U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. The temperature at Midland TX plunged from a record high of 80 degrees to 37 degrees in just three hours. Morning lows in the higher elevations of Wyoming were as cold as 38 degrees below zero. Heavy snow blanketed southwestern Colorado, with 16 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the western U.S. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada of California, and buried parts of northeastern Washington State under three feet of snow in five days. High winds across Washington State reached 75 mph, with gusts to 105 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped the north central U.S. The morning low of 29 degrees below zero at Casper WY was a record for the month of February. Wisdom MT hit 53 degrees below zero. Missoula MT reported a wind chill reading of 85 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather over the central Gulf coast states during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Alabama, including one which touched down north of Birmingham injuring fifteen people and causing nearly three million dollars damage. A tornado at Margaret injured eleven persons and caused a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:18 PM, NEG NAO said:

still alot of cloud cover out there in NJ and you knows what will develop during the day - Upton usually does a poor job of predicting cloud coverage...

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we'll see if the typical afternoon clouds push down

 

[EastonSN+]

For the 14the again. Target date has not been pushed back so far. EPS the Middle ground for blocking.

[NEG NAO]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:42 PM, EastonSN+ said:

For the 14the again. Target date has not been pushed back so far. EPS the Middle ground for blocking.

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Looks good on paper - thats about all for now..

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/3/2024 at 8:01 AM, snowman19 said:

Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility

 

 

 

 

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Yeah we need the SE ridge to flex a bit. 

However great opportunity for DC, Baltimore and maybe Philly to have an above average snowfall winter.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:07 PM, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (1991)
NYC: 64 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 1 (1955)
NYC: 0 (1955)
LGA: 1 (1955)


Historical:

1844: Boston Harbor was so thick with ice on this date that a channel had to be cut through the ice for the "Britannia" ship to leave with 30,000 letters for England.

1917 - Downtown Miami, FL, reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The temperature at Tanacross, AK, plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

 

1959: At 12:55 am Central Time, a plane took off from runway 17 at the Mason City, Iowa airport, carrying the lives of Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson. At the time of departure, the weather was reported as light snow, a ceiling of 3,000 feet with sky obscured, visibility 6 miles, and winds from 20 to 30 mph. At around 9:35 am, Hubert Jerry Dwyer spotted the wreckage less than 6 miles northwest of the airport. The three musicians and the pilot died from this crash.

1987 - Wintry weather was confined to freezing drizzle and light snow in the northeastern U.S., and light rain and snow in the western U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. The temperature at Midland TX plunged from a record high of 80 degrees to 37 degrees in just three hours. Morning lows in the higher elevations of Wyoming were as cold as 38 degrees below zero. Heavy snow blanketed southwestern Colorado, with 16 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the western U.S. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada of California, and buried parts of northeastern Washington State under three feet of snow in five days. High winds across Washington State reached 75 mph, with gusts to 105 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped the north central U.S. The morning low of 29 degrees below zero at Casper WY was a record for the month of February. Wisdom MT hit 53 degrees below zero. Missoula MT reported a wind chill reading of 85 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather over the central Gulf coast states during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Alabama, including one which touched down north of Birmingham injuring fifteen people and causing nearly three million dollars damage. A tornado at Margaret injured eleven persons and caused a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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wow, what a horrible day, the day that music died....

 

1959: At 12:55 am Central Time, a plane took off from runway 17 at the Mason City, Iowa airport, carrying the lives of Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, and J. P. "The Big Bopper" Richardson. At the time of departure, the weather was reported as light snow, a ceiling of 3,000 feet with sky obscured, visibility 6 miles, and winds from 20 to 30 mph. At around 9:35 am, Hubert Jerry Dwyer spotted the wreckage less than 6 miles northwest of the airport. The three musicians and the pilot died from this crash.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:46 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah we need the SE ridge to flex a bit. 

However great opportunity for DC, Baltimore and maybe Philly to have an above average snowfall winter.

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or maybe for the southeast at this rate.  If 1972-73 is indeed the analog to use, it could be very good for the Carolinas.

[NEG NAO]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:46 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah we need the SE ridge to flex a bit. 

However great opportunity for DC, Baltimore and maybe Philly to have an above average snowfall winter.

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true but how often does the SE ridge work in our favor for a cold snowy pattern lately ?

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:45 PM, NEG NAO said:

Looks good on paper - thats about all for now..

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We need the SE ridge to flex. Feel good for Raleigh, Delmarva, Norfolk and perhaps DC through Philly.

Good pattern for something like this again but perhaps a bit further south.

[Tatamy]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:26 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Snowman really hates that it could snow. Everything I've ever seen from him has been anti-winter. 

Now he thinks they'll be suppression. So far this Nino has produced one of the wettest Dec-Jan periods for us and he thinks they'll be suppression.

Delusional thinking 

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The chart shown here initiated by Tomer Burg would in fact lead to a higher risk of suppression or OTS solutions.  FYI Tomer Burg is a well regarded met who knows of what he speaks.

[NEG NAO]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:50 PM, EastonSN+ said:

We need the SE ridge to flex. Feel good for Raleigh, Delmarva, Norfolk and perhaps DC through Philly.

Good pattern for something like this again but perhaps a bit further south.

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I think the deeper we get into February areas south and east of DC will have precip type issues

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:50 PM, EastonSN+ said:

We need the SE ridge to flex. Feel good for Raleigh, Delmarva, Norfolk and perhaps DC through Philly.

Good pattern for something like this again but perhaps a bit further south.

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The same patterns seem to repeat over and over again.  In 2004-05 we had a similar 10 day pattern of early February warmth and then we went back to snowy again later in the month.  

If the same pattern repeats, it would be congrats DelMarVa to southern NJ.  Logically you'd think later in the season the storm track should move north, but March 2014 proved otherwise.

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/3/2024 at 2:52 PM, Tatamy said:

The chart shown here initiated by Tomer Burg would in fact lead to a higher risk of suppression or OTS solutions.  FYI Tomer Burg is a well regarded met who knows of what he speaks.

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Right and this isn't unprecedented, we've seen this happen before, several times.

[Stormlover74]

  On 2/3/2024 at 1:22 PM, LibertyBell said:

This is what happened in March 2014.

 

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It's a legitimate concern. But I don't know that it will favor the mid Atlantic either if cold air fails to materialize