LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Potential for. I mean every winter month has potential for 15 inches. Seasonal forecasts called for potential for 30 to 40". It's not really a forecast It just seemed like an oddly exact amount "15-23" inches here and "25-35" inches inland. Most forecasts would just be like "higher than average chances of wintry weather" or something like that. It makes me think the Fox hype machine wrote that with little or no input from Nick Gregory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: And let me once again state for the record that I consider a pattern change to be one that lasts for at least 3 weeks....but considering what has taken place, I may have to settle for a pattern change that lasts for 3+ hours. I thought it was always snow in Methuen? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: It just seemed like an oddly exact amount "15-23" inches here and "25-35" inches inland. Most forecasts would just be like "higher than average chances of wintry weather" or something like that. It makes me think the Fox hype machine wrote that with little or no input from Nick Gregory. I think that's the winter forecast put out in December but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I thought it was always snow in Methuen? Do you have any interest in purchasing some Atlantic Ocean beach front property in Utah?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Do you have any interest in purchasing some Atlantic Ocean beach front property in Utah?? I heard that Mormons are great surfers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: At least for now, the 12z GFS is an outlier. The GEFS is colder and the EPS is even more aggressive with the cold. The weeklies continue to show the cold. Moreover, the forecast EPO-/AO-/PNA+ is also consistent with a colder outlook. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: At least for now, the 12z GFS is an outlier. The GEFS is colder and the EPS is even more aggressive with the cold. The weeklies continue to show the cold. Moreover, the forecast EPO-/AO-/PNA+ is also consistent with a colder outlook. I'm sure the 18Z GFS will change dramatically post 240hrs compared to the 12Z run. Why the operational GFS is run past 240hr, is a whole other debate to be had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At least for now, the 12z GFS is an outlier. The GEFS is colder and the EPS is even more aggressive with the cold. The weeklies continue to show the cold. Moreover, the forecast EPO-/AO-/PNA+ is also consistent with a colder outlook. That triple combo is a lock to produce mid to late February if it occurs. We just need all those pieces to finish the puzzle. We did extremely well in 13/14 14/15 with that combo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I'm sure the 18Z GFS will change dramatically post 240hrs compared to the 12Z run. Why the operational GFS is run past 240hr, is a whole other debate to be had. It might take until the 0z, we know about the infamous 6z/18z runs of the GFS lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That triple combo is a lock to produce mid to late February if it occurs. We just need all those pieces to finish the puzzle. We did extremely well in 13/14 14/15 with that combo. It will be interesting to see how it will work out in a warmer North America compared to those years. It can work, just probably not in the same extreme way as those years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: I agree, many lousy seasons in central PA while I-95 especially north of Philly got crushed by the coastal favored storm track and lots of miller B type storms. Inevitable that the pendulum would swing but to go from that to under 10” is harsh. Even though it’ll be chilly it’ll be good to see the sun again for the next few days. The NYC 10 year snowfall moving average peaked in 2018 at 38.6” while State College had its peak in 1970 at 59.2”. Black line is 10 year moving average 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The seemingly perpetual "empire of clouds" will fall overnight as drier air overspreads the region. Sunshine, which has been a rare commodity of late, could be in abundance during the weekend. Temperatures will continue to run somewhat above normal. It could turn briefly cooler early next week before much warmer air pushes into the region. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February could wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City. Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -29.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.433 today. On January 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.114 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.230 (RMM). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Snow currently falling. Whitening car tops. 34.5° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The NYC 10 year snowfall moving average peaked in 2018 at 38.6” while State College had its peak in 1970 at 59.2”. Black line is 10 year moving average Yep, sad what’s happened out there the last 15 years or so. People rely on snow there via the ski resorts. I think a couple of seasons there were around or just over 50” but nothing over 60” since 2004 and looks like 4 were below 20”. That’s atrocious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Moderate snow falling here. And sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-2024-mid-winter-forecast?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3H7CHYhUxWA-hFOdWaN5ZYj52wmoVRC2cCXlOF7qlMmRydVJx42BPrnMY_aem_AUwO6bXYKRFLIISNS9F2NkVmZW2PXTa3arC6fmlxIiD0bnmDhAPYh2qhoUxH5FjHYn0 Nick Gregory on board He has balls predicting another 15 - 23 inches in NYC metro this season . Good Luck ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks great on paper ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 hours ago, winterwx21 said: The warmup for late next week is looking pretty impressive. Maybe a shot at 60 degrees on Friday? Similar to the 60's that were predicted here last Friday several days in advance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Records: Highs: EWR: 62 (1973) NYC: 59 (1988) LGA: 59 (1988) Lows: EWR: -2 (1961) NYC: -3 (1881) LGA: -1 (1961) Historical: 1870: Congressman Halbert Paine, who represented Wisconsin's Second District, introduced a joint resolution in the House of Representatives “to authorize the Secretary of War to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations and other points in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the Northern Lakes and seaboard of the approach and force of storms.” The House adopted the resolution by unanimous consent and, two days later, it passed the Senate. Five days later, on Feb. 9, President Ulysses S. Grant signed the joint resolution into law, officially creating the nation's first weather service. 1952 - The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida. It produced 60 mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel) 1952: An area of low pressure moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida during the evening and late-night hours on February 2, 1952. It produced 60 mph winds and two to four inches of rain on February 2 and 3. The low pressure remains the only tropical storm to impact the United States in February. 1956 - A record snowstorm in New Mexico and west Texas began on Ground Hog's Day. The storm produced 15 inches of snow at Roswell NM, and up to 33 inches in the Texas Panhandle. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A fast moving arctic front brought snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 69 mph at Brookings SD. Big Falls MN reported nine inches of snow. Record warmth was reported just ahead of the front. Burlington IA reported a record high of 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dying low pressure system over southern California deluged the San Diego coastal mountains with more than four inches of rain causing half a million dollars damage. Arctic air invading the north central U.S. sent the mercury plunging to 38 degrees below zero at Park Rapids MN. Raleigh NC reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Bitter cold air covered much of the central U.S. Butte MT reported a wind chill reading of 91 degrees below zero, Salt Lake City UT was blanketed with 11.9 inches of snow in 24 hours, and winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Twenty-eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Wilmington NC with a reading of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. One person was injured in a tornado near Reidheimer LA. Thunderstorms northeast of Brandon MS produced hail three inches in diameter along with high winds which downed or snapped off one hundred trees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996 - An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower's annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36�, Osage, IA: -34�, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32� and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31�. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45� and -38�, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53�. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34� for its coldest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached -16� for the high temperature for the day, their coldest 1996: An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower's annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36°, Osage, IA: -34°, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32° and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31°. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45° and -38°, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53°. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34° for its coldest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached -16° for the high temperature for the day, their coldest high temperature on record in February. The place to be this day was in Orlando, FL, where it was a balmy 85 degrees. 2006 - New Orleans is struck by two tornadoes, collapsing at least one previously damaged house and battering Louis Armstrong International Airport. The Weather Doctor 2008 - Hilo, HI, is deluged by 10.82 inches of rain in a period of 24 hours, breaking the previous record set in 1969 by 3.5 inches. The Weather Doctor 2011 - A high temperature of 44°F registered at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix, AZ, sets an all-time February record for the coldest high temperature for the city. The Weather Doctor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Quite a snow cover extent roller coaster ride this winter across North America. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html Goes back to one of your posts about the increase in extreme weather lately. Dec 2023 was incredibly warm followed by a record breaking cold outbreak, out west, and now more record breaking warmth for the same regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 (In regards to the constant mainstream/regional news media and social media posts that have become more frequent and prevalent, concerning long range forecasts...NOT ON WEATHER FORUMS, WITHIN DISCUSSIONS.) Sensationalism sells better than crack in the hood in the 80s... Why? Because it acts on the same neurotransmitters as many drugs. Fear, excitement, extremes, and crisis... They all sell. This is why media and government work hand in hand in a world where everyone now has a communication device within arm's reach at all times. Propaganda aside, it is easy to reach everyone and gain clicks (profits) at any given time. This is a tragedy for science, and clearly society as a whole. A byproduct (not always intentional) of modern communication is that it is inherently less difficult to sway opinions or even control a narrative. It is certainly easier to gain a following (more clicks) if you can throw a hail Mary and convert. If you miss the mark, there's another chance to redeem yourself with the next forecast. People have short term memories. It's easy to see why many professional meteorologists from another era are now frustrated. It's cringeworthy, even for weather hobbyists. But... (speaking for myself,) we are also captivated, and find ourselves logging on to Tropical Tidbits and other sites almost obsessively leading up to weather events that have a chance of verifying. Because of this, we should understand how this media frenzy works, even better than most. It's a wild science within itself. Are weather events really much more Extreme? Or... do we have better means of observing and measuring them? We have only been able to accurately and methodically measure and record events within the past 200 years. We have only been present to record data for a very short period of time. I believe that we need to keep all of these factors in mind. Constants (baselines) are not available for us to draw comparisons or draw concrete conclusions. While WE may be able to keep this in mind, 99.9% of the public are only consuming what is fed to them in short bursts, whether that be social media, news media, or even gossip around the water cooler...The vast majority of consumers of internet "news" articles rarely read past a headline and perhaps a few sentences into said articles...it's dangerous, in that this broadcasted information is less about conveying real facts and forecasts, and more about profits, through sensationalism and the resulting clicks. This is my general interpretation of the scenario that we see playing out. Twenty to thirty years ago, most people never had access to to this volume of information. Eventually, individuals and journalists discovered a way to profit off of everything/anything that captivates a broad audience. I feel truly sympathetic towards the real METS. It must be deeply frustrating for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Similar to the 60's that were predicted here last Friday several days in advance ? Missed by a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Does there exist, anywhere, data on what a pattern like what is being forecast (generally, i.e., at least -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA and MJO in 8/1) might typically produce in winter in, say, the NE or maybe at least NYC Metro, especially in January and February? I know not all patterns are the same (ENSO state being a big variable), but just looking for whether anyone has done the work to determine this. Personally, I've tracked about 8 fairly similar patterns since 2016 and saw that all 8 verified for colder than normal temps and 5 verified for snowier than normal outcomes (one would expect random guessing to verify 2-3 out of 8) for the 2-3 week periods I was following (did this for New Brunswick and vs. above/normal/below for those two parameters vs. all seasons for the period in question), but that's a fairly small sample size and I didn't rigorously track the teleconnections beyond what was forecast about 8-10 days out. Would be cool to have a much larger, more accurate dataset to have some idea of the confidence of a pattern like this actually producing snow, in particular. @donsutherland1- any chance something like that exists? If anyone would know, I think it would be you... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 30 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Goes back to one of your posts about the increase in extreme weather lately. Dec 2023 was incredibly warm followed by a record breaking cold outbreak, out west, and now more record breaking warmth for the same regions. It's been wild for sure. January here started and ended in a London fog while being an arctic winter wonderland during the heart of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Does there exist, anywhere, data on what a pattern like what is being forecast (generally, i.e., at least -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA and MJO in 8/1) might typically produce in winter in, say, the NE or maybe at least NYC Metro, especially in January and February? I know not all patterns are the same (ENSO state being a big variable), but just looking for whether anyone has done the work to determine this. Personally, I've tracked about 8 fairly similar patterns since 2016 and saw that all 8 verified for colder than normal temps and 5 verified for snowier than normal outcomes (one would expect random guessing to verify 2-3 out of 8) for the 2-3 week periods I was following (did this for New Brunswick and vs. above/normal/below for those two parameters vs. all seasons for the period in question), but that's a fairly small sample size and I didn't rigorously track the teleconnections beyond what was forecast about 8-10 days out. Would be cool to have a much larger, more accurate dataset to have some idea of the confidence of a pattern like this actually producing snow, in particular. @donsutherland1- any chance something like that exists? If anyone would know, I think it would be you... I will see what I can come up with tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I will see what I can come up with tomorrow. But I want it now! Just kidding, that was my Veruca Salt imitation from Wonka. Don't sweat it too much, was hoping that might be something you wouldn't have to work too hard to get - but thanks, in advance, for anything you can find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 He has balls predicting another 15 - 23 inches in NYC metro this season . Good Luck !Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 37 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility He doesn't have balls. He Is a conservative forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: He doesn't have balls. He Is a conservative forecaster. My point is that no one will give a s*** if all this pattern does is get it cold. Like Tomer Burg showed, this pattern carries a high risk of suppression. If this does turn out to be a suppressed pattern, you and everyone else will call it a HUGE fail 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yes he does. More bombastic hype. If mid-late February fails, a lot of people have set themselves up to look really stupid and loose a whole lot of credibility It’s a borderline super El Niño with a supercharged STJ pattern this month. So it looks like the primary storm track later this month will be to our south. But it only takes one to bump further north once we get within the 120hr period for NYC to break its 2”+ snowstorm drought. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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