Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 One of my favorite storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. Didn’t ACY have its snowiest January on record in 2022? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Really snowy day at Belleayre today! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. Northeast Jersey approach 50+ in 2021 while areas further west got over 60. While it is warming, you can’t blame that on if nyc misses the jackpot by a few miles. Acy had its snowiest January in 2022 which is on the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 12 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: It already passed for NYC. Unless you’re in denial. It’s looking more and more like 2010 to 2018 was peak snowfall for NYC. But it it wasn’t advertised ahead of time. It’s only starting to become more obvious now that we are 6 years out from that period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. You mention the "Goldilocks period", it was called that as far back as 50 years ago in a scientific journal I used to read in elementary school. There was a lot of discussion about how that zone might evolve as thresholds were reached and, for the most part, it was right. Over the ensuing decades I've watched the progression and been impressed with the understanding that those scientists had back in the mid 70s, long before anyone else was blowing that horn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The 2010s will probably be remembered as the modern golden era for NYC snowfall. 10 year NYC average snowfall 49-50 to 58-59….19.9 59-60 to 68-69….32.0 69-70 to 78-79…..22.5 79-80 to 88-89…..19.7 89-90 to 98-99….24.4 99-00 to 08-09….28.0 09-10 to 18-19……37.9 19-20 to 20-29……13.2 so far I would probably still argue the 1960s were the golden era. Some of the older figures are less reliable due to changes in snow measurement procedure over time: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News Plus, taking a wider regional view, the 1960s are a clear favorite. Here's decadal snowfall at Harrisburg, Pennsylvania: 49-50 to 58-59….27.5 59-60 to 68-69….47.8 69-70 to 78-79…..35.2 79-80 to 88-89…..32.5 89-90 to 98-99….31.7 99-00 to 08-09….25.1 09-10 to 18-19……33.7 19-20 to 20-29……15.9 so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Northeast Jersey approach 50+ in 2021 while areas further west got over 60. While it is warming, you can’t blame that on if nyc misses the jackpot by a few miles. Acy had its snowiest January in 2022 which is on the ocean 20-21 was a good season around NYC and Long Island. But it was no match for the best seasons from 2010 to 2018 in those locations. The storm tracks closer to the coast were too warm and tucked in with the south based block boosting heights too much east of New England. So the interior spots which were colder did much better. January 2022 was the snowiest on record at ACY, but the cold couldn’t be sustained so they only finished the season 10th snowiest. ACY couldn’t match the best seasons from 2010 to 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm skeptical but the change is coming according to everyone . I'm wondering if the lack of a cryosphere will moderate any pattern change? I mean there's almost no ice anywhere on the Great Lakes - record breaking lack of ice cover. Even parts of the Upper Peninsula and arrowhead of Minnesota, which ALWAYS have tons of snow, have minimal amounts on the ground. Surely this, coupled with the high sun angle of late February scorching the bare earth, will make it tough to get any meaningful arctic air this far south and east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. I agree. I believe that NYC is in the early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall regime due to the warming, not to mention pattern-related changes driven by the warming SSTs/marine heatwaves, warming Arctic, etc. The recent very low snowfall amounts could also have been amplified by an unfavorable cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Didn’t ACY have its snowiest January on record in 2022? Pretty sure 2009-10 was a lot higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Northeast Jersey approach 50+ in 2021 while areas further west got over 60. While it is warming, you can’t blame that on if nyc misses the jackpot by a few miles. Acy had its snowiest January in 2022 which is on the ocean This is too low for MMU. With that that said, some years you get the bear, some years the bear gets you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I agree. I believe that NYC is in the early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall regime due to the warming, not to mention pattern-related changes driven by the warming SSTs/marine heatwaves, warming Arctic, etc. The recent very low snowfall amounts could also have been amplified by an unfavorable cycle.Can you make it stop?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty sure 2009-10 was a lot higher Month* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. I believe that NYC is in the early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall regime due to the warming, not to mention pattern-related changes driven by the warming SSTs/marine heatwaves, warming Arctic, etc. The recent very low snowfall amounts could also have been amplified by an unfavorable cycle. Don, with all due respect, I think the whole planet is in the early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall regime. Buffalo possibly not included, at least for the time being. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Month* Oh nevermind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Northeast Jersey approach 50+ in 2021 while areas further west got over 60. While it is warming, you can’t blame that on if nyc misses the jackpot by a few miles. Acy had its snowiest January in 2022 which is on the ocean There can be year-to-year variability. The confirmation of such a change will be seen in the 30-year seasonal snowfall averages. By the mid-2030s, if NYC is at or below 20" on the 30-year averages (which are highly correlated to 30-year winter temperatures), that will be strong evidence of that change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The warmup for late next week is looking pretty impressive. Maybe a shot at 60 degrees on Friday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 OLR/VPA tracking: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 12 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: I'm wondering if the lack of a cryosphere will moderate any pattern change? I mean there's almost no ice anywhere on the Great Lakes - record breaking lack of ice cover. Even parts of the Upper Peninsula and arrowhead of Minnesota, which ALWAYS have tons of snow, have minimal amounts on the ground. Surely this, coupled with the high sun angle of late February scorching the bare earth, will make it tough to get any meaningful arctic air this far south and east? Can still get very meaningful cold in February but you are 100% correct that the lack of ice on the Great Lakes + late February sun angle + possibility of bare ground upstream will certainly temper what could have been if the lakes were ice covered and some snow was on the ground. Sun angle we can't help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: Don, with all due respect, I think the whole planet is in the early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall regime. I didn't mean to suggest that NYC is somehow unique. Overall, snowfall is decreasing in many parts of the world. Some areas, though, have been witnessing rising snowfall as the benefits of added moisture outweigh the impacts of rising temperatures, which still remain sufficiently cold there for long snow seasons. Caribou provides one example. Of course, as warming continues to proceed--and the world remains on a 2.9C path (higher if Hansen is right)--many of those areas will also see a downturn in their seasonal snowfall. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 17 minutes ago, North and West said: Can you make it stop? . My attempt failed: 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The warmup for late next week is looking pretty impressive. Maybe a shot at 60 degrees on Friday? That would feel great 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Calling 2010 to 2018 peak snowfall in NYC means to me that NYC won’t be able to match a 9 season running average of 39.8” as the climate continues to warm. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.3 0.5 5.9 14.2 12.8 5.5 0.6 39.8 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Just took a break from mentally exhausting ocean county bs to catch up on the pages in here. Great discussions all. Looks like the Florida rule won't grant us a snowstorm this year unfortunately. Every year I head to Tampa for Super Bowl weekend and we usually get nailed while away. Hopefully second half of the month delivers. Non-weather stories are boring. Keep in mind as well while the shore areas rocked during 2010-2018, those living west, and in NEPA got skunked. Here's hoping for a trackable SOMETHING by month's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Just took a break from mentally exhausting ocean county bs to catch up on the pages in here. Great discussions all. Looks like the Florida rule won't grant us a snowstorm this year unfortunately. Every year I head to Tampa for Super Bowl weekend and we usually get nailed while away. Hopefully second half of the month delivers. Non-weather stories are boring. Keep in mind as well while the shore areas rocked during 2010-2018, those living west, and in NEPA got skunked. Here's hoping for a trackable SOMETHING by month's end. I agree, many lousy seasons in central PA while I-95 especially north of Philly got crushed by the coastal favored storm track and lots of miller B type storms. Inevitable that the pendulum would swing but to go from that to under 10” is harsh. Even though it’ll be chilly it’ll be good to see the sun again for the next few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Ridiculous pattern on the ens for mid month… chances start before this on the eps but this is a ridiculous look if true 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 29 minutes ago, MANDA said: Can still get very meaningful cold in February but you are 100% correct that the lack of ice on the Great Lakes + late February sun angle + possibility of bare ground upstream will certainly temper what could have been if the lakes were ice covered and some snow was on the ground. Sun angle we can't help. I live in between the 3 Great Lakes and ground is barren here in Toronto. I was up north over the weekend and only those downwind of the lakes (thanks to lake effect snow), have snow on the ground (4-6"). But with the warmth this past week and continuing warmth for the next 10 days, it'll all melt. No ice on the lakes either. I was in NYC/LI the last 2 days for a work conference. I didn't know it was gloomy here too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-2024-mid-winter-forecast?utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3H7CHYhUxWA-hFOdWaN5ZYj52wmoVRC2cCXlOF7qlMmRydVJx42BPrnMY_aem_AUwO6bXYKRFLIISNS9F2NkVmZW2PXTa3arC6fmlxIiD0bnmDhAPYh2qhoUxH5FjHYn0 Nick Gregory on board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: You mention the "Goldilocks period", it was called that as far back as 50 years ago in a scientific journal I used to read in elementary school. There was a lot of discussion about how that zone might evolve as thresholds were reached and, for the most part, it was right. Over the ensuing decades I've watched the progression and been impressed with the understanding that those scientists had back in the mid 70s, long before anyone else was blowing that horn. there were people who knew about it in the 70s, but the knowledge wasn't widely disseminated... you can guess why 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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