bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 12 hours ago, MANDA said: That is one blocked up upper air pattern. Going to take a while to get the train moving again. Going to be a real snoozer next 10-14 days, as per guidance. Then we'll see what happens. I'm pretty convinced of a period of BN temps from 2/15 - 2/20 or thereabouts. How much beyond that? Does the pattern produce for meaningful snow, 6"+ forum wide? It could but it doesn't have to. Patterns like the one that is forecast for mid / late month have failed to produce more so than not last year and this. At least something to watch with interest over the next two weeks to see how it develops. In the meantime it will give the ground a chance to dry out around here. Be thankful the block has setup the way it did. Any further east we would really warm up, as it is we'll be in a NW flow of at least cool / chilly air with cold nights and daytime temperatures not truly torching. Any further west would have kept us in a cloudy, raw and damp pattern. The big warm up for us comes by later next week as the block moves over to the Northeast. Then it will take a while for temperatures to get back closer to normal by mid-February. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 We should be golden once we get to phase 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The big warm up for us comes by later next week as the block moves over to the Northeast. Then it will take a while for temperatures to get back closer to normal by mid-February. Thoughts on this? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 .52 to start the dry pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: The big warm up for us comes by later next week as the block moves over to the Northeast. Then it will take a while for temperatures to get back closer to normal by mid-February. I dont understand why people care whether it's in the 40s and sunny or in the 60s and sunny, it's not going to snow either way so it might as well be warm right now. If and when we get snow later in the month it won't matter what the temperatures are here right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: .52 to start the dry pattern dry pattern starts Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 53 minutes ago, Pellice said: It's not just activists vs. "rational people." Many scientists and organizations are working hard to try to mitigate and meld new technologies to lessen and perhaps improve their effects on the life of this planet. For example, the Nature Conservancy and American Bird Conservancy have developed maps for siting wind turbines where they will least effect the migratory corridors of birds and other species. A widening "lights out" campaign is attempting to get bright urban areas to turn down lights on nights of predicted high bird migration. New glass formulations can reduce collisions. All of these cost extra money. Will it be spent Here's why I respect activists, at least they do something to try to change the status quo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: dry pattern starts Saturday please…you keep talking about sun. Clouds yesterday and rain this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: please…you keep talking about sun. Clouds yesterday and rain this morning. Yesterday wasn't half bad though, we had sun for about 2 hours. People really are thirsting for sunshine aren't they lol It's not my fault that the planet is 70% water 30% land, if I could geoengineer it, it would be about 40% water and 60% land. We don't need that much water (and it would fix the sea level rise problem too.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Bank on this… Super Bowl Sunday in the 60’s and president weekend doesn’t get out of the 20’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I dont understand why people care whether it's in the 40s and sunny or in the 60s and sunny, it's not going to snow either way so it might as well be warm right now. If and when we get snow later in the month it won't matter what the temperatures are here right now. It matters to the extent that we have experienced a shift to much warmer winters with the +13 December 2015. The record warmth over the last 9 winters is unprecedented in our records. The winter current average of 38.6° is normal for parts of Virginia. We have never had a 9 winter average anywhere close to this warm before. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 41.0 35.7 39.1 38.6 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.8 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bank on this… Super Bowl Sunday in the 60’s and president weekend doesn’t get out of the 20’s early prediction for the total solar eclipse on April 8th lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Same date (14). GEFS has less Ridging out west/Alaska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It matters to the extent that we have experienced a shift to much warmer winters with the +13 December 2015. The record warmth over the last 9 winters is unprecedented in our records. The winter current average of 38.6° Is normal for parts of Virginia. We have never had a 9 winter average anywhere close to this warm before. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 41.0 35.7 39.1 38.6 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.8 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 I have read the winter up in Montpelier, VT this year has been what the normal winter in Philadelphia would be? My argument about caring about temperatures is this-- I remember you posted numbers on this last year or the year prior-- we have been setting new records for temperatures in the 60s followed by significant snowfall... I think the record is 2 days (2 days after temperatures in the 60s we had a 6"+ snowstorm?) This year the extreme warmth has been in the middle of the nation, I heard that central Canada has been in the 70s? Broke their previous record by 4 degrees! I hope this doesn't mean wildfires later in the spring and summer! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Found this mornings GEFS MJO interesting.... finally phase 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Euro agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I dont understand why people care whether it's in the 40s and sunny or in the 60s and sunny, it's not going to snow either way so it might as well be warm right now. If and when we get snow later in the month it won't matter what the temperatures are here right now. Put simply... Weather is more than just snow, and shifting patterns are equally enjoyable to track. (Coming from someone who works outdoors on the water every single day.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 From yesterday, however clearly shows blocking settings up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I have read the winter up in Montpelier, VT this year has been what the normal winter in Philadelphia would be? My argument about caring about temperatures is this-- I remember you posted numbers on this last year or the year prior-- we have been setting new records for temperatures in the 60s followed by significant snowfall... I think the record is 2 days (2 days after temperatures in the 60s we had a 6"+ snowstorm?) This year the extreme warmth has been in the middle of the nation, I heard that central Canada has been in the 70s? Broke their previous record by 4 degrees! I hope this doesn't mean wildfires later in the spring and summer! Biggest snowfall in NYC following a 60° or above high: February 8, 2017: 62° February 9, 2017: 9.4" of snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Biggest snowfall in NYC following a 60° or above high: February 8, 2017: 62° February 9, 2017: 9.4" of snow Those where the days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: From yesterday, however clearly shows blocking settings up This forecast blocking, the consistent ECMWF weekly forecasts, cooling near the end of the forecasting range on the GEFS and EPS, and ENSO climatology all give me confidence in the onset of a cooler pattern near mid-month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 fwiw..I added the CPC updated Feb outlook from Jan 31 to the initial thread so we can look back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Phil and Chuck didn't see their shadow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Bank on this… Super Bowl Sunday in the 60’s and president weekend doesn’t get out of the 20’s The Rangers are playing outdoors on Presidents Day weekend. It won’t get above single digits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Biggest snowfall in NYC following a 60° or above high: February 8, 2017: 62° February 9, 2017: 9.4" of snow Thanks Don, I wonder how much latitude offers increased opportunities for snowfall even in a warming climate. I.e., it's popular for someone to state "we have DC's 1980s climate". However, I find it hard to believe it's a one to one comparison (could be any city to the south). There is still a good pool of cold air left at the poles, so increased volatility, given our latitude, could allow for stable or increased average annual snowfall for a while. Also, I remember storms where the dew points were so low that we lost snowfall to delayed wet bulbing. The aforementioned storms of the past could result in much greater snowfall due to the higher moisture content. Volatility at our latitude could be the culprit for instances like you have posted. I believe Feb 2018 also had a great example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: did Snowman19 see its shadow ? No, so the mid month pattern will only last 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 20 minutes ago, dseagull said: Put simply... Weather is more than just snow, and shifting patterns are equally enjoyable to track. (Coming from someone who works outdoors on the water every single day.) Yes, I enjoy it all too. Sunny and dry in the spring and summer (rainfall at night is okay) to nice clear frosty nights in the fall to get the fall foliage going during the day and then snow in time for the holidays in December ideally. Having a warm start to winter spoils a large part of the season for me. Getting snow in December is important to have a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bank on this… Super Bowl Sunday in the 60’s and president weekend doesn’t get out of the 20’s Superbowl Sunday Flooding Rains and President Days Weekend Bone Dry without a snowstorm in sight........in other words don't get too excited until its obvious that this pattern change will deliver any significant snow.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: It matters to the extent that we have experienced a shift to much warmer winters with the +13 December 2015. The record warmth over the last 9 winters is unprecedented in our records. The winter current average of 38.6° is normal for parts of Virginia. We have never had a 9 winter average anywhere close to this warm before. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 41.0 35.7 39.1 38.6 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.8 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.2 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 Winter 2023-2024 will likely finish at 39°F or above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don, I wonder how much latitude offers increased opportunities for snowfall even in a warming climate. I.e., it's popular for someone to state "we have DC's 1980s climate". However, I find it hard to believe it's a one to one comparison (could be any city to the south). There is still a good pool of cold air left at the poles, so increased volatility, given our latitude, could allow for stable or increased average annual snowfall for a while. Also, I remember storms where the dew points were so low that we lost snowfall to delayed wet bulbing. The aforementioned storms of the past could result in much greater snowfall due to the higher moisture content. Volatility at our latitude could be the culprit for instances like you have posted. I believe Feb 2018 also had a great example. There's many examples of this however it's a very hit and miss scenario. To use a baseball example it's like replacing a great all around hitter .300 hitter with some power with someone who strikes out most of the time but once in a long while hits a home run. It's why we see so many feast and famine winters now, you rarely ever see a snowfall season in the normal range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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