February 2024

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:24 PM, jm1220 said:

Definitely not in a position to assert one way or the other but most of our really prolific setups had help from the Pacific. It also helps that the Atlantic warmed somewhat which added moisture to the big snow events we got. Now that the Pacific seems to have entered a -PDO, Nina-like long term state with practically boiling waters off Japan and Indonesia, it’s a lot less favorable for us and we see the West get continually dumped on with snow and cold. 

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this is what's erased the West's drought and returned us into an 80s early 90s/late 90s type pattern and these phases last for 20 years?

 

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:24 PM, jm1220 said:

Definitely not in a position to assert one way or the other but most of our really prolific setups had help from the Pacific. It also helps that the Atlantic warmed somewhat which added moisture to the big snow events we got. Now that the Pacific seems to have entered a -PDO, Nina-like long term state with practically boiling waters off Japan and Indonesia, it’s a lot less favorable for us and we see the West get continually dumped on with snow and cold. 

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Thanks.

It's just amazing how much 2000 through 2018 mirrored 55 through 69 in snowfall, KU count and time period length. If you have the Northeast Snowstorm KU book they are so similar. The ocean temp anomolies during each period must have mirrored each other in location/configuration.

[snowman19]

  On 2/1/2024 at 1:38 PM, bluewave said:

That trough hanging back near the Baja would potentially act as a kicker favoring the main storm track across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. That’s what the long range EPS indicates for mid to late February. But it only takes one to stray a little further north for NYC to break its under 2” streak. 
 

 

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With the way mid-late February is getting hyped right now, if it doesn’t produce here like mid-late January didn’t, it will be one of the biggest busts of all time

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:08 PM, jm1220 said:

We can get blasted by both types of storms-ones that favor New England and ones that favor the Mid Atlantic but also get totally boned when they just miss. It’s the pro/con of living in the transitional climate area between both regions we do. 

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People just need to realize we live in a feast or famine climate, it's why people with "snow" in their names have an unrealistic idea of what our climate is really like and get bipolar this time of year.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:33 PM, snowman19 said:

With the way mid-late February is getting hyped right now, if it doesn’t produce here like mid-late January didn’t, it will be one of the biggest busts of all time

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Outside of you, all the other "snow" ID people live in fantasy land in terms of how much snow one should expect around here.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:30 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks.

It's just amazing how much 2000 through 2018 mirrored 55 through 69 in snowfall, KU count and time period length. If you have the Northeast Snowstorm KU book they are so similar. The ocean temp anomolies during each period must have mirrored each other in location/configuration.

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00s and 10s were actually snowier

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 12:32 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

no surprise at all..

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Snowfreak is the Greenskeeper of this forum, he smokes snow like crack.

[jm1220]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:29 PM, LibertyBell said:

this is what's erased the West's drought and returned us into an 80s early 90s/late 90s type pattern and these phases last for 20 years?

 

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Can’t speak for historical precipitation, Bluewave or Don would have those stats but at least precip wise we’ve been getting wetter and wetter despite the possibility we’re transitioning back to a less favorable snow regime here. The climate change signal is always in the background and warmer air can hold more moisture. There are also many ways we can get blasted with heavy rain in most patterns unless the jet stream is very suppressed. The West getting heavy rain and especially snow again is great news for them but the population boom out there likely still means long term water supply issues. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:41 PM, jm1220 said:

Can’t speak for historical precipitation, Bluewave or Don would have those stats but at least precip wise we’ve been getting wetter and wetter despite the possibility we’re transitioning back to a less favorable snow regime here. The climate change signal is always in the background and warmer air can hold more moisture. There are also many ways we can get blasted with heavy rain in most patterns unless the jet stream is very suppressed. The West getting heavy rain and especially snow again is great news for them but the population boom out there likely still means long term water supply issues. 

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and our wetter regime means more flooding, less sunshine, more mold, etc.  It really does feel much more tropical even when it's not summer.

[donsutherland1]

Near Mid-February Pattern Change:

Even as generally warmer than normal weather will continue into at least the second week of this month, the idea that there will be a transition toward a sustained colder pattern beginning late in the second week of the month as mid-month approaches +/- a few days remains largely on track. Confidence in the idea is above average despite lower model/ensemble skill at that forecasting range for several reasons:

• Consistent signal on the ECMWF weeklies
• Outcomes consistent with AO-/PNA+ patterns during February 10-20
• Historic strong El Niño climatology for February that favors colder weather before and around mid-month (existence of a cold period)

ECMWF Weekly Forecast (February 12-19, 2024):

AO-/PNA+ Outcomes:

Sample sizes: AO-/PNA+: 119 days, All Other Cases: 255 days

The timing would be somewhat later than is typical for strong El Niño winters. Such winters typically see their coldest February temperatures just before mid-month. Late in the month, readings warm up. If historic climatology provides some insight into the upcoming pattern evolution, the colder pattern could persist into the first week of March given the timing of its onset.

Snowfall:

Although snowfall details remain uncertain given the variables involved, should snowfall remain lower or much lower than normal as the month advances, the probability of much below normal seasonal snowfall for Winter 2023-2024 as a whole would increase. Below to much below normal seasonal snowfall from February 1-April 30 is more likely than not given historic experience with winters that have featured the kind of warmth and lack of snowfall seen through January 31st.

Key Uncertainties:

• Whether there would be severe cold with low temperatures falling to the single digits on one or more days.
• Frequency and amount of snowfall.
• Whether there would be any significant (6" or above) snowstorms.
• Duration and magnitude of the cold period.

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:52 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Near Mid-February Pattern Change:

Even as generally warmer than normal weather will continue into at least the second week of this month, the idea that there will be a transition toward a sustained colder pattern beginning late in the second week of the month as mid-month approaches +/- a few days remains largely on track. Confidence in the idea is above average despite lower model/ensemble skill at that forecasting range for several reasons:

• Consistent signal on the ECMWF weeklies
• Outcomes consistent with AO-/PNA+ patterns during February 10-20
• Historic strong El Niño climatology for February that favors colder weather before and around mid-month (existence of a cold period)

ECMWF Weekly Forecast (February 12-19, 2024):

AO-/PNA+ Outcomes:

Sample sizes: AO-/PNA+: 119 days, All Other Cases: 255 days

The timing would be somewhat later than is typical for strong El Niño winters. Such winters typically see their coldest February temperatures just before mid-month. Late in the month, readings warm up. If historic climatology provides some insight into the upcoming pattern evolution, the colder pattern could persist into the first week of March given the timing of its onset.

Snowfall:

Although snowfall details remain uncertain given the variables involved, should snowfall remain lower or much lower than normal as the month advances, the probability of much below normal seasonal snowfall for Winter 2023-2024 as a whole would increase. Below to much below seasonal snowfall from February 1-April 30 is more likely than not given historic experience with winters that have featured the kind of warmth and lack of snowfall seen through January 31st.

Key Uncertainties:

• Whether there would be severe cold with low temperatures falling to the single digits on one or more days.
• Frequency and amount of snowfall.
• Whether there would be any significant (6" or above) snowstorms.
• Duration and magnitude of the cold period.

 

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Thanks so much for this Don..... it would be interesting to see some winter analogs and el nino analogs for how well snow seasons did when there was 3" or less of snow through the middle of February, say we make it to Valentine's Day with 3" or less of snow..

 

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:33 PM, LibertyBell said:

People just need to realize we live in a feast or famine climate, it's why people with "snow" in their names have an unrealistic idea of what our climate is really like and get bipolar this time of year.

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I selected my screen name because of the historical snowfall in 1717. I got to experience that in 2015. 

[NEG NAO]

  On 2/1/2024 at 2:52 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Near Mid-February Pattern Change:

Even as generally warmer than normal weather will continue into at least the second week of this month, the idea that there will be a transition toward a sustained colder pattern beginning late in the second week of the month as mid-month approaches +/- a few days remains largely on track. Confidence in the idea is above average despite lower model/ensemble skill at that forecasting range for several reasons:

• Consistent signal on the ECMWF weeklies
• Outcomes consistent with AO-/PNA+ patterns during February 10-20
• Historic strong El Niño climatology for February that favors colder weather before and around mid-month (existence of a cold period)

ECMWF Weekly Forecast (February 12-19, 2024):

AO-/PNA+ Outcomes:

Sample sizes: AO-/PNA+: 119 days, All Other Cases: 255 days

The timing would be somewhat later than is typical for strong El Niño winters. Such winters typically see their coldest February temperatures just before mid-month. Late in the month, readings warm up. If historic climatology provides some insight into the upcoming pattern evolution, the colder pattern could persist into the first week of March given the timing of its onset.

Snowfall:

Although snowfall details remain uncertain given the variables involved, should snowfall remain lower or much lower than normal as the month advances, the probability of much below normal seasonal snowfall for Winter 2023-2024 as a whole would increase. Below to much below normal seasonal snowfall from February 1-April 30 is more likely than not given historic experience with winters that have featured the kind of warmth and lack of snowfall seen through January 31st.

Key Uncertainties:

• Whether there would be severe cold with low temperatures falling to the single digits on one or more days.
• Frequency and amount of snowfall.
• Whether there would be any significant (6" or above) snowstorms.
• Duration and magnitude of the cold period.

 

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basically the key uncertainties listed = no idea what is going to happen............

[It's Always Sunny]

Not a bad thing to see for back half prospects...

[NEG NAO]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:15 PM, It's Always Sunny said:

Not a bad thing to see for back half prospects...

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depending how it sets up in the lower 48 and interacts with the northern stream along with timing of various systems moving through

[JustinRP37]

I have to say if you are looking for snow, the Catskills were amazing yesterday. Belleayre had plenty of natural snow and of course deep snow gun snow. Overall it was a beautiful day yesterday with light snow off and on. So far I have had three really amazing ski days this past January and one horrendous day. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:35 PM, JustinRP37 said:

I have to say if you are looking for snow, the Catskills were amazing yesterday. Belleayre had plenty of natural snow and of course deep snow gun snow. Overall it was a beautiful day yesterday with light snow off and on. So far I have had three really amazing ski days this past January and one horrendous day. 

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Wow, that looks absolutely amazing.  I have to ask, how can you have a horrendous day there, even if it was only 1, with so much snow?

 

[cleetussnow]

It's possible that one biggie can get a lot of stations close to normal and we saw that during the 'snowy epoch' since the mid 90s.  2006 comes to mind where a single storm did that, and that was mid Feb.  I haven't looked at the data in awhile but it seems we don't tend to get like six 5-inch storms to get to normal for CPK.  Also, we don't normally just land on 'normal;' instead we do something like 15" or 45" and it averages out to normal ~30" over time.  And when we get above normal, we get a couple biggies in it.  

I'm hoping we do get that big storm magic while the pattern is good, but I'm on the record for a ratter.  It will still take some luck on timing even in a good pattern.  Good patterns can absolutely fail to deliver.  

[Stormlover74]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:39 PM, cleetussnow said:

It's possible that one biggie can get a lot of stations close to normal and we saw that during the 'snowy epoch' since the mid 90s.  2006 comes to mind where a single storm did that, and that was mid Feb.  I haven't looked at the data in awhile but it seems we don't tend to get like six 5-inch storms to get to normal for CPK.  Also, we don't normally just land on 'normal;' instead we do something like 15" or 45" and it averages out to normal ~30" over time.  And when we get above normal, we get a couple biggies in it.  

I'm hoping we do get that big storm magic while the pattern is good, but I'm on the record for a ratter.  It will still take some luck on timing even in a good pattern.  Good patterns can absolutely fail to deliver.  

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I can't think of many recent winters where we had so little through Feb 15th and it turned around. 91-92 comes to mind but ended up well below average. 92-93 flipped early in the month, wound up close to average. 95 was one and done

[jm1220]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:39 PM, cleetussnow said:

It's possible that one biggie can get a lot of stations close to normal and we saw that during the 'snowy epoch' since the mid 90s.  2006 comes to mind where a single storm did that, and that was mid Feb.  I haven't looked at the data in awhile but it seems we don't tend to get like six 5-inch storms to get to normal for CPK.  Also, we don't normally just land on 'normal;' instead we do something like 15" or 45" and it averages out to normal ~30" over time.  And when we get above normal, we get a couple biggies in it.  

I'm hoping we do get that big storm magic while the pattern is good, but I'm on the record for a ratter.  It will still take some luck on timing even in a good pattern.  Good patterns can absolutely fail to deliver.  

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If we can time the moisture/storm with cold air, we can definitely still get clobbered in late Feb. Odds are strongly that we’ll have a below to well below average snow winter again but we can make up a lot of ground if this Feb stretch can work. My average is probably around 35” for the winter and I have 5”, so I’d need a stretch like Feb 2021 to reach average which is unlikely but I guess possible. 

[JustinRP37]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:36 PM, LibertyBell said:

Wow, that looks absolutely amazing.  I have to ask, how can you have a horrendous day there, even if it was only 1, with so much snow?

 

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The one bad day was MLK day at Catamount a few days after the rain. It was solid ice. The other 3 days were 2 Belleayre and 1 Thunder Ridge, all of which were amazing. Going to Catamount this weekend to try it out again. 

[donsutherland1]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:06 PM, LibertyBell said:

Thanks so much for this Don..... it would be interesting to see some winter analogs and el nino analogs for how well snow seasons did when there was 3" or less of snow through the middle of February, say we make it to Valentine's Day with 3" or less of snow..

 

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There's a table that shows mean/median/highest snowfall for the remainder of the snow season if NYC has less than 3", less than 6", less than 10", or 10" or more snow through February 15th.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:49 PM, jm1220 said:

If we can time the moisture/storm with cold air, we can definitely still get clobbered in late Feb. Odds are strongly that we’ll have a below to well below average snow winter again but we can make up a lot of ground if this Feb stretch can work. My average is probably around 35” for the winter and I have 5”, so I’d need a stretch like Feb 2021 to reach average which is unlikely but I guess possible. 

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I'm curious, what did we have in 2017-18 before mid February and March? I know we had a snow event in mid February that year in the middle of a mild pattern, but didn't we also have a big storm in January?  For whatever reason, it seems that getting a big storm earlier in the season increases the likelihood of getting another one later in the season even if there is a long stretch of mild weather in between-- 1966-67 is another case in point (and that was in a -PNA winter too.)

 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:42 PM, Stormlover74 said:

I can't think of many recent winters where we had so little through Feb 15th and it turned around. 91-92 comes to mind but ended up well below average. 92-93 flipped early in the month, wound up close to average. 95 was one and done

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I can see a 95 type outcome with it being one and done. Probably a 4-6 type event with the big totals in snj 

[Allsnow]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:54 PM, donsutherland1 said:

There's a table that shows mean/median/highest snowfall for the remainder of the snow season if NYC has less than 3", less than 6", less than 10", or 10" or more snow through February 15th.

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Those stats are not promising for winters with less than 3. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:54 PM, donsutherland1 said:

There's a table that shows mean/median/highest snowfall for the remainder of the snow season if NYC has less than 3", less than 6", less than 10", or 10" or more snow through February 15th.

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Wild, so with less than 6" of snow through February 15, there were no outcomes that even brought us to average snowfall?

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:56 PM, Allsnow said:

Those stats are not promising for winters with less than 3. 

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Or even with winters with less than 6.

[Stormlover74]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:54 PM, LibertyBell said:

I'm curious, what did we have in 2017-18 before mid February and March? I know we had a snow event in mid February that year in the middle of a mild pattern, but didn't we also have a big storm in January?  For whatever reason, it seems that getting a big storm earlier in the season increases the likelihood of getting another one later in the season even if there is a long stretch of mild weather in between-- 1966-67 is another case in point (and that was in a -PNA winter too.)

 

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Yes early Jan 18 had a coastal blizzard. Dec had a few events that year as well

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/1/2024 at 4:02 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Yes early Jan 18 had a coastal blizzard

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That was the all day whiteout, which was such an amazing storm.  It does seem like having an early season storm like that increases the chances of late season snow even if there's a big thaw in between.

 

[donsutherland1]

  On 2/1/2024 at 3:12 PM, NEG NAO said:

basically the key uncertainties listed = no idea what is going to happen............

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That it will turn colder is likely. Some of the other outcomes depend on a range of factors (cross-polar flow, shortwaves, blocking, synoptic pattern/details, etc.), leading to greater uncertainty. Thus, they were listed as key uncertainties.

Best guess: A 2-3 week period with generally colder than normal temperatures (probably running into the first week in March). No single digits in Central Park, but one or more days with lows in the teens. Several light snow events with perhaps a moderate event (3"-4"), which would wind up being this season's biggest event. No big events of 6" or more. 

All of this will culminate in a winter that will wind up being warmer than normal (likely including February's having a warm anomaly, in large part, due to the very warm first 10-14 days) and much below normal seasonal snowfall by the conclusion of the snow season. This guess is based on the combination of the guidance and statistical outcomes.

It should be noted that 46-day maps or 46-day charts have very little skill overall in terms of specifics. Indeed, if they did, the NYC area wouldn't be looking at the distinct possibility of seeing an unprecedented second consecutive season with less than 10" snowfall. I think we'll avoid that outcome, but should February wind up less snowy than I'm thinking, then my thinking on that matter will likely be wrong.