NCPOW Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: it wasn't lucky. the pattern before that storm was a classic KU preloading pattern Posts like yours are why I enjoy this forum. Posts like the one you are responding to is why this forum can be extremely frustrating. Very long time lurker here who sometimes posts OBS during storms. I got to say, the repetitive subjective and negative posts with no sound basis are becoming very tiresome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 minutes ago, NCPOW said: Posts like yours are why I enjoy this forum. Posts like the one you are responding to is why this forum can be extremely frustrating. Very long time lurker here who sometimes posts OBS during storms. I got to say, the repetitive subjective and negative posts with no sound basis are becoming very tiresome. Well, this weather has been tiresome, so you're gonna see that.....as I sit here on yet another steel gray, dreary day. Must be good for vampires..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yes 2015-16 was amazing in this respect to have a come back like it did. That below zero low on Valentines Day was amazing too, you don't ever see a below zero low after that kind of December. That Arctic outbreak fit our recent pattern of having a near 60° day within a week of dropping under 10°. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-02-14 15 -1 2016-02-15 35 13 2016-02-16 54 35 2016-02-17 39 35 2016-02-18 36 27 2016-02-19 39 24 2016-02-20 61 39 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2023-02-04 27 3 2023-02-05 49 27 2023-02-06 52 34 2023-02-07 43 30 2023-02-08 53 39 2023-02-09 55 42 2023-02-10 61 45 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-12-24 15 7 2022-12-25 28 14 2022-12-26 29 18 2022-12-27 35 29 2022-12-28 47 33 2022-12-29 51 40 2022-12-30 62 46 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2019-01-21 14 4 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-22 31 13 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-23 52 31 T 0.0 0 2019-01-24 59 35 1.33 0.0 0 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-01-07 18 5 2018-01-08 31 17 2018-01-09 44 30 2018-01-10 43 30 2018-01-11 53 41 2018-01-12 61 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2015-01-04 56 41 2015-01-05 49 21 2015-01-06 22 19 2015-01-07 23 9 2015-01-08 21 8 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-01-06 55 19 2014-01-07 19 4 2014-01-08 22 9 2014-01-09 32 22 2014-01-10 37 30 2014-01-11 58 37 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: That Arctic outbreak fit our recent pattern of having a near 60° day within a week of dropping under 10°. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2016-02-14 15 -1 2016-02-15 35 13 2016-02-16 54 35 2016-02-17 39 35 2016-02-18 36 27 2016-02-19 39 24 2016-02-20 61 39 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2023-02-04 27 3 2023-02-05 49 27 2023-02-06 52 34 2023-02-07 43 30 2023-02-08 53 39 2023-02-09 55 42 2023-02-10 61 45 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2022-12-24 15 7 2022-12-25 28 14 2022-12-26 29 18 2022-12-27 35 29 2022-12-28 47 33 2022-12-29 51 40 2022-12-30 62 46 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2019-01-21 14 4 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-22 31 13 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-23 52 31 T 0.0 0 2019-01-24 59 35 1.33 0.0 0 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-01-07 18 5 2018-01-08 31 17 2018-01-09 44 30 2018-01-10 43 30 2018-01-11 53 41 2018-01-12 61 44 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2015-01-04 56 41 2015-01-05 49 21 2015-01-06 22 19 2015-01-07 23 9 2015-01-08 21 8 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2014-01-06 55 19 2014-01-07 19 4 2014-01-08 22 9 2014-01-09 32 22 2014-01-10 37 30 2014-01-11 58 37 This reminds me of January 1994 too when we got into the mid 50s a day after hitting zero or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: That’s the event I’m craving, a nice coastal northeast nuke. 6-10 would do nicely if something like that were in the cards. Doesn’t have to be a HECS. Let’s just get a nice broad untainted hit. Would be fun to track and then experience, and lift a lot of spirits. Hopefully something like that is plausibly in the pipeline for that mid - late month window. Would be yet another waste of a pattern and ultimately a waste of the Niño if not. I think a lot on here would sign up for a 6-10 region-wide deal in trade for more winter thereafter. Let's get one and we can wrap it up and call it a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 FWIW: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I don’t know about the second half but for the first half of the month we have to be making a run at the warmest ever right? +10 by the 13th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, uofmiami said: FWIW: The weeklies are going all in on phase 8 as we approach the Presidents Day period. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This change to me is way less likely to fail or be muted than the January change because its more +PNA based than -EPO/-PNA based...those patterns as a whole when shown in the longer range can alter slightly and fail or still lead to cutters where as the pattern on most ensembles for mid Febraury is not as likely too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The weeklies are going all in on phase 8 as we approach the Presidents Day period. All the ensembles are going to that look today. Hopefully it happens 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks good 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks goodJust need one big event and it’s a good winter in my book . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Just need one big event and it’s a good winter in my book . Feb 2006 redux 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Feb 2006 redux 78' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 57 minutes ago, Allsnow said: All the ensembles are going to that look today. Hopefully it happens It’s starting to look like the pattern change around President’s Day weekend is probably going to be real. It’s still way out there (over 15 days away), but it’s across the board model agreement for now. Let’s see if it holds through the end of next week. That’s going to be the big test if this is actually going to come to pass 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Extremely overrated winter Does anybody rate '15-'16 highly? It was a one historic storm winter similar to '05-'06. Two very memorable storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Sign me up for Presidents Day 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Rain and snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: The January 19-20 (17") snowstorm in 1978 was a surprise. The overnight forecast was for an inch or two of snow changing to rain and we woke up the next morning to a raging blizzard. The February 6 blizzard was talked about days in advance. I remember that I brought a portable radio to my indoor track meet on Saturday (2 days before the storm) so that I could get forecast updates during the day. Like most here, I've been at this since I was a kid. That story about the radio is awesome! In the rare times snow was in the forecast, working evenings at the mall as a kid I'd time my short break so I could head over to the electronics department in Macy's or JCPenney's and catch the weather guy on WPIX, who I knew would be on at 7:45. Sorry, banter I know, couldn't help it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: All the ensembles are going to that look today. Hopefully it happens Would be a real shock for everyone that thinks winter is done However 82-83 is a top analog and that had one big storm, PDI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 hours ago, Heisy said: Just need one big event and it’s a good winter in my book . 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Would be a real shock for everyone that thinks winter is done However 82-83 is a top analog and that had one big storm, PDI The Pineapple Express about to hit West Coast really is reminiscent of ‘83. I just have this feeling that a widespread 20-30” snowfall is going to hit us in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I don’t know about the second half but for the first half of the month we have to be making a run at the warmest ever right? +10 by the 13th?Yes, the warmest EVER since time began! In the millions of years previously it’s never been this warm. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The lack of winter weather across CONUS continues to amaze me. Last year, arguably one of the worst if not *the* worst for snow regionwide, other parts of the nation were doing well. In particular, from the west coast to the upper Midwest. Even in 2020, most of the northern tier was doing better. Outside of 3 weeks in January, our PAC dominated winter has led to very little snow and even smaller snowpack/ sustained cold temperatures across the nation. Aside from a few areas, this ranks even lower than 202, 2012, 2023 with nationwide snow averages. The PAC jet in December did us all in for that month, and it appears the next 2 weeks will be rather quiet nationwide. Hard pressed to find such little winter activity this winter across the nation. Take this info as you will…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 19 hours ago, GaWx said: But this is already happening. It says this is a 2023 upgrade. The 100 ensemble members already run to day 46 every day on the 0Z run rather than the old twice per week runs. Not sure - at least on Pivotal, the weeklies are still only showing the twice a week runs - I thought maybe the rollout was delayed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 15 hours ago, the_other_guy said: I don’t know about the second half but for the first half of the month we have to be making a run at the warmest ever right? +10 by the 13th? Pretty impressive warmth for North America as a whole for the first half of February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: Yes, the warmest EVER since time began! In the millions of years previously it’s never been this warm. . Sorry it's not as warm as when the Earth first formed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Would be a real shock for everyone that thinks winter is done However 82-83 is a top analog and that had one big storm, PDI PD1 was in 1979 not February 1983....which occurred on the 11th-12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: everything still looks on track for mid-month... MJO moving into favorable phases, equatorward Pacific jet extension will foster strong Aleutian low development, split flow, building -NAO via wave breaking in the N Atl. all ensembles are in really good agreement temporally and spatially i'd like to give it another week to get this into a better range, but it looks good How long do you see this good period lasting? At least 2 weeks to maybe 4 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 15 hours ago, the_other_guy said: I don’t know about the second half but for the first half of the month we have to be making a run at the warmest ever right? +10 by the 13th? it looks like it will be sunny most of the time too, which is just fine in my book. No more rain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Sorry it's not as warm as when the Earth first formed. You dont even need to go that far back, it was MUCH warmer when dinosaurs roamed the earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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