Allsnow Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 2:00 AM, Allsnow said: Expand As the saying goes even a broken clock is right twice a day. Keep saying the same thing and eventually they'll be right. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 Not sure this was posted: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:23 AM, MJO812 said: People excited about mid February to mid March . Let's pray. Expand not in this forum - certain unnamed posters always negative no matter what....... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/29/2024 at 6:55 PM, Tatamy said: I grew up in the 70s on LI. The concept of a 6”+ storm basically did not exist at that time. The greatest amounts that were ever forecasted were 4-8” by AW because that was as big a storm as there could be or so it seemed. We had two storms of about 7” during that period and that was it. Expand Amen. The total number of snowfalls greater than 10 inches between the early 70s and 1995 here was well under 10 total. As you say, a 3-6 forecast was a big deal. 6-12 was downright giddiness to a kid, and other than 1993 I don't think I ever saw a 12+" forecast map between 1980 and 1993. The Blizzard of '83 of course ended up well over that, but I don't think the forecasts ever caught up, and 1993 did have such maps, but that turned to rain too soon for most of LI. Contrast with the 2000-2018 period where over 2/3rd of the years had a 10" storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 4:25 AM, coastalplainsnowman said: Amen. The total number of snowfalls greater than 10 inches between the early 70s and 1995 here was well under 10 total. As you say, a 3-6 forecast was a big deal. 6-12 was downright giddiness to a kid, and other than 1993 I don't think I ever saw a 12+" forecast map between 1980 and 1993. The Blizzard of '83 of course ended up well over that, but I don't think the forecasts ever caught up, and 1993 did have such maps, but that turned to rain too soon for most of LI. Contrast with the 2000-2018 period where over 2/3rd of the years had a 10" storm. Expand The forecast 24 hours before the blizzard of '78 was for a foot or more. It was an LFM success 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 Stumbled across this, from ECMWF, which I think people will like. Sounds like the increase in horizontal resolution of the ensemble forecast to the same resolution used in the operational model means there is no lower resolution "control" any more (meaning the "control" will now be the op), which has always been a bit of an issue. But the coolest part was seeing that the extended range ensemble will now run daily out to day 46 with 100 ensemble members; no more "weeklies." The fact that it'll run at 0Z will affect the sleep patterns of millions of weenies worldwide. In 2023 we will see a major upgrade to our forecasting system. The key change will be a significant increase in the horizontal resolution of our medium-range ensemble forecasts from 18 km to 9 km, bringing the 50‑member ensemble to the same level as our current high-resolution forecast. Cycle 48r1 will also bring a major upgrade to the configuration of the extended-range ensemble. Rather than being an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15, it will be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 100 members. Cycle 48r1 will be the first ECMWF forecast upgrade to be produced in our new data centre in Bologna, Italy. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/focus/2022/global-numerical-modelling-heart-ecmwfs-forecasts#:~:text=For example%2C ECMWF's high-resolution,the first operational weather forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 I like February 2006 as an analogue for the upcoming February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 4:28 AM, NorthShoreWx said: The forecast 24 hours before the blizzard of '78 was for a foot or more. It was an LFM success Expand It would be interesting to find forecasts for some of these old storms. I was too young to remember anything about 1978 except there was a lot of snow lol. I remember the forecast before the April 1982 blizzard was for 6-12 inches of snow which was amazing. I thought the forecast for February 1983 blizzard was for 12-18 inches of snow but that might have been once the storm had already began. There were several busted forecasts of 6-8 inches of snow in the 80s that never happened. There were 0 10" snowstorms after February 1983 and before March 1993. That was a 10 year and 1 month period with no double digit snowstorms! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 2:30 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: As the saying goes even a broken clock is right twice a day. Keep saying the same thing and eventually they'll be right. Expand I'd take a bet they will be wrong. Maybe it gets a little seasonable. Don't gas up the snowblowers just yet. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 3:30 AM, NEG NAO said: not in this forum - certain unnamed posters always negative no matter what....... Expand Pretty hard to get excited after two years of this, and if you live by me, really 3 years because 2022 was only marginally better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 9:49 AM, LibertyBell said: It would be interesting to find forecasts for some of these old storms. I was too young to remember anything about 1978 except there was a lot of snow lol. I remember the forecast before the April 1982 blizzard was for 6-12 inches of snow which was amazing. I thought the forecast for February 1983 blizzard was for 12-18 inches of snow but that might have been once the storm had already began. There were several busted forecasts of 6-8 inches of snow in the 80s that never happened. There were 0 10" snowstorms after February 1983 and before March 1993. That was a 10 year and 1 month period with no double digit snowstorms! Expand Jan 87? Seemed like at least 10, but that was CNJ. But yeah, 6-8 inches was a big storm. 78 was like 17 inches and it seemed like the apocalypse. I was 15 and the snow was up to my waste. That was the only snow days I would see throughout HS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 10:17 AM, weatherpruf said: Jan 87? Seemed like at least 10, but that was CNJ. But yeah, 6-8 inches was a big storm. 78 was like 17 inches and it seemed like the apocalypse. I was 15 and the snow was up to my waste. That was the only snow days I would see throughout HS. Expand January 1987 if memory serves me correctly was 7 inches here and that seemed like a giant at the time. School was delayed for that but not closed. There was one other storm that happened in the 80s that was actually bigger than that and it happened in December, it was supposed to change to rain but it only changed to drizzle at the very end. It happened on a Saturday so there was no school closing; it was 8.6" at Central Park. I wish I remember the exact year of this storm but I don't. All I remember is the exact snowfall amount lol. I can say it happened somewhere between the winters of 1984-85 and 1986-87. And I'm pretty sure it happened in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 5:03 AM, RU848789 said: Stumbled across this, from ECMWF, which I think people will like. Sounds like the increase in horizontal resolution of the ensemble forecast to the same resolution used in the operational model means there is no lower resolution "control" any more (meaning the "control" will now be the op), which has always been a bit of an issue. But the coolest part was seeing that the extended range ensemble will now run daily out to day 46 with 100 ensemble members; no more "weeklies." The fact that it'll run at 0Z will affect the sleep patterns of millions of weenies worldwide. In 2023 we will see a major upgrade to our forecasting system. The key change will be a significant increase in the horizontal resolution of our medium-range ensemble forecasts from 18 km to 9 km, bringing the 50‑member ensemble to the same level as our current high-resolution forecast. Cycle 48r1 will also bring a major upgrade to the configuration of the extended-range ensemble. Rather than being an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15, it will be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 100 members. Cycle 48r1 will be the first ECMWF forecast upgrade to be produced in our new data centre in Bologna, Italy. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/focus/2022/global-numerical-modelling-heart-ecmwfs-forecasts#:~:text=For example%2C ECMWF's high-resolution,the first operational weather forecasts. Expand But this is already happening. It says this is a 2023 upgrade. The 100 ensemble members already run to day 46 every day on the 0Z run rather than the old twice per week runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 4:28 AM, NorthShoreWx said: The forecast 24 hours before the blizzard of '78 was for a foot or more. It was an LFM success Expand Thanks - I qualified my timeframe for the 12" forecast point to 1980-1993 because of 1978 - as I recall anecdotally that one caught LI by surprise to some degree too tho right? I just remember from what my father said after coming home after being snowbound in NYC. Were some models were calling for it but the forecasts on TV/radio were lower than that? For 1980-1993 do I have that right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 There is your MJO phases 8, 1, 2 (again same as we saw earlier). Also AO going negative. On a side note, we have obviously brought back the coastal hugger. Now, we have a clipper!! Both typical storms before 2000. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 3:30 AM, NEG NAO said: not in this forum - certain unnamed posters always negative no matter what....... Expand It's called persistence, which at this point is probably more reliable than 14 day outlooks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 5:47 AM, TriPol said: I like February 2006 as an analogue for the upcoming February. Expand why ? monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov) Snow storm, February 11-12, 2006 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:09 PM, Dark Star said: It's called persistence, which at this point is probably more reliable than 14 day outlooks... Expand Yes All the ensembles show a much favorable pattern towards mid February along with many meteorologists. It's way out there so who knows if it will trend worse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:24 PM, MJO812 said: Yes All the ensembles show a much favorable pattern towards mid February along with many meteorologists. It's way out there so who knows if it will trend worse. Expand Regardless of whether this is another false alarm or post 2/15 actually produces, mid-late February is our last shot. If it fails, it’s over. Say goodnight and goodbye @NEG NAO Good luck kicking the can down the road to March if mid-late February fails. Strong Ninos are definitely not favorable in early-mid March. Look back at history 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:28 PM, snowman19 said: Regardless of whether this is another false alarm or post 2/15 actually produces, mid-late February is our last shot. If it fails, it’s over. Say goodnight and goodbye Expand March ? We have been getting more snow in March then in December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 10:14 AM, weatherpruf said: Pretty hard to get excited after two years of this, and if you live by me, really 3 years because 2022 was only marginally better. Expand I have been around here since 1955 except winter 83-84 through 1995-1996 in Northern Ocean County and I have seen just about every kind of good stretch and bad stretch of winters so nothing surprises me anymore....... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:28 PM, snowman19 said: Regardless of whether this is another false alarm or post 2/15 actually produces, mid-late February is our last shot. If it fails, it’s over. Say goodnight and goodbye Expand your reasoning is flawed and negative as usual - look at this and prove me wrong monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov) 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:24 PM, MJO812 said: Yes All the ensembles show a much favorable pattern towards mid February along with many meteorologists. It's way out there so who knows if it will trend worse. Expand I am still sticking with a repeat performance of January - a week to at least 10 or more days of wintry temps and precip starting around mid month BUT we dry out the next couple of weeks and we need too the ground is too saturated demonstrated by soggy soil and standing water on some lawns..... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:28 PM, snowman19 said: Regardless of whether this is another false alarm or post 2/15 actually produces, mid-late February is our last shot. If it fails, it’s over. Say goodnight and goodbye @NEG NAO Good luck kicking the can down the road to March if mid-late February fails. Strong Ninos are definitely not favorable in early-mid March. Look back at history Expand That doesn't mean we can't get a good March . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:42 PM, MJO812 said: That doesn't mean we can't get a good March . Expand this NINO is going to come crashing down in March and be replaced with NINA by spring - so will not be your typical March weather..........expect anything and everything IMO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 Euro and all long range modeling looks even worse overnight. Any pattern change looks to be pushed back to after Feb. 15th now, if it even comes. We are getting very close to the fat lady warming up her vocal box. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:42 PM, MJO812 said: That doesn't mean we can't get a good March . Expand Exactly, he's such a troll. Not saying it will happen and it of course would be better in February but first two weeks in March are legit in the immediate metro. Definitely gets dicey after that, though better N&W obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:55 PM, ag3 said: Euro and all long range modeling looks even worse overnight. Any pattern change looks to be pushed back to after Feb. 15th now, if it even comes. We are getting very close to the fat lady warming up her vocal box. Expand Yup, we might waste 3 weeks without a threat currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2024 Share Posted January 30, 2024 On 1/30/2024 at 1:42 PM, MJO812 said: That doesn't mean we can't get a good March . Expand We did much better in March during the 2010s than the 2020s so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 0.1 0.1 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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