LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yes. We'll get one in the next 3 years though We'll likely get one next winter with a la nina happening after an el nino being one of our best indicators for above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool. Forecast Verification but how is it a la nina like pattern with so much rainfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: but how is it a la nina like pattern with so much rainfall? The 500 mb pattern was closer to La Niña with a deep trough out West and a Southeast ridge. But the raging STJ with all the precipitation was classic El Niño. So a bit of a combination pattern as a function of the much further than west forcing for an El Niño in January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, bluewave said: The 500 mb pattern was closer to La Niña with a deep trough out West and a Southeast ridge. But the raging STJ with all the precipitation was classic El Niño. So a bit if a hybrid pattern as a function of the much further than west forcing for a January El Niño. I wonder if anything like this has happened before? It's hard to imagine another winter like this one, but maybe if we look far enough back in the records? But the widespread coral bleaching because of the sea temperatures you've mentioned is highly alarming and means that we aren't just talking about warmer SST, the excessive warmth extends right to the sea floor. This might not be going away for a long time, Chris. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: This winter was always going to be a 97-98 repeat or a one off storm type year like 83 or 2016. So far minus the cold week in January it's behaving more like 98. That's why I'm not shocked or complaining and have no control over it anyway Completely agree. Also, Don mentioned in the beginning of the season "the elephant in the room", referring and listing 97/98. This has been 97/98 with an added cold shot that lasted approx 1.5 weeks. It's not over yet and we will likely get another week or so of favorable conditions, but who knows if we will get anything or the MA will get it again. Good for them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Completely agree. Also, Don mentioned in the beginning of the season "the elephant in the room", referring and listing 97/98. This has been 97/98 with an added cold shot that lasted approx 1.5 weeks. It's not over yet and we will likely get another week or so of favorable conditions, but who knows if we will get anything or the MA will get it again. Good for them. this hasn't been 97/98. there has not been a massive GoA low wrecking everything. one hasn't formed at all, the patterns after Dec have been very different 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 its coming in 2 weeksAlways 2 weeks away. Same as last winter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this hasn't been 97/98. there has not been a massive GoA low wrecking everything. one hasn't formed at all, the patterns after Dec have been very different Yeah but the effects have been similar enough to make this winter suck nearly as much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Yeah but the effects have been similar enough to make this winter suck nearly as much. Warm and rainy with little snow is basically the same thing even if the reasons why are different. Dec 97 was colder than this year and Jan 98 was warmer than this year so its evened out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Is it really hard to get 6 plus snowstorm ? We use to get those all the time. We had a great run up until 2021. A long stretch in which we had many above average snowfall winters. That couldn't last forever. We were overdue for a few bad winters. This isn't a surprise. It's frustrating now, but it's hard to complain after the long run that we had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cheer up Anthony. Accu weather is taking an optimistic look at the cold season thus far. Not sure if the placement of the ‘All 50 states have seen snow this season’ article below the one on the ‘Billions of Cicadas set to appear’ was intentional or a coincidence. Stay well and hopeful. As always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: We had a great run up until 2021. A long stretch in which we had many above average snowfall winters. That couldn't last forever. We were overdue for a few bad winters. This isn't a surprise. It's frustrating now, but it's hard to complain after the long run that we had. Now over 2 years since I last plowed snow. I would take a month like jan 2022 in a heartbeat now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Now over 2 years since I last plowed snow. I would take a month like jan 2022 in a heartbeat now Yeah January 2022 was nice. We ended up well below average snowfall that winter, but it was great compared to last winter and what we've gotten so far this winter. Let's hope next winter is better. I still hope we can get a big snowstorm this winter later in February or early March, but the situation right now looks bleak. Pretty bad when at the end of January you can look out almost 2 weeks and it still looks ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah January 2022 was nice. We ended up well below average snowfall that winter, but it was great compared to last winter and what we've gotten so far this winter. Let's hope next winter is better. I still hope we can get a big snowstorm this winter later in February or early March, but the situation right now looks bleak. Pretty bad when at the end of January you can look out almost 2 weeks and it still looks ugly. Yup. Lots of weeks wasted this winter with nothing to track. Next opportunity is probably Presidents Day Weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 the rainstorms have been fun to track 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the rainstorms have been fun to track Sne having their wettest two month period ever and little snow to show for it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: What does the "bg" stand for in "bg warming". Google was no help with this question. Background 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 39 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: We had a great run up until 2021. A long stretch in which we had many above average snowfall winters. That couldn't last forever. We were overdue for a few bad winters. This isn't a surprise. It's frustrating now, but it's hard to complain after the long run that we had. I was thinking about this and I'm sure many/most would agree. We'd give up all those great winters to end the bipolar nature of our winters. In other words, get rid of the variability and every winter should be plus or minus 5 inches of the long term average. No more 40 and 50 inch snowfall winters, but no more 5 and 15 inch winters either. I'd be just fine with keeping the same long term average for snowfall but never getting more than 32 inches of snow and never getting less than 24 inches of snow. The joy of the great winters definitely isn't worth the pain of the bad ones. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 28 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the rainstorms have been fun to track Let them stay in California and the South. They can withstand the flooding far more than we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 This has to be one of the cloudiest couple of months I can remember. Just anecdotal but it seems like we get maybe 1-2 days of sun per week. Just very dreary overall. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just out of curiosity, when was the last time we had a sunny day or even saw the sun?! Feels like we've been in the gloom for a long while. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, jr461 said: This has to be one of the cloudiest couple of months I can remember. Just anecdotal but it seems like we get maybe 1-2 days of sun per week. Just very dreary overall. That's pretty crazy that you posted this at the exact same time of mine! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Yea people are losing their minds over the lack of sunshine. This has been a truly horrific month. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea people are losing their minds over the lack of sunshine. This has been a truly horrific month. Even when there's no precip it still seems to be mostly cloudy. If there's no storm around where exactly are all these clouds coming from? For example, after today it's supposed to be mostly cloudy for the rest of the week, but there are no storm systems around. Is this because we don't have any strong fronts to clear us out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: That's pretty crazy that you posted this at the exact same time of mine! Cloudy foggy minds think alike!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea people are losing their minds over the lack of sunshine. This has been a truly horrific month. The people who are only here for snow aren't real weather hobbyists though, they're just snow hobbyists, which is pretty much any of these ignorant brats with "snow" in their name (with a few exceptions-- they know who they are lol.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 27 minutes ago, jr461 said: This has to be one of the cloudiest couple of months I can remember. Just anecdotal but it seems like we get maybe 1-2 days of sun per week. Just very dreary overall. Absolutely. I've said it several times but all summer and fall has been very wet and gloomy. We need a pattern shift this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Absolutely. I've said it several times but all summer and fall has been very wet and gloomy. We need a pattern shift this spring. That's the odd thing, the last 2 years, spring has been the least cloudy season. April and May have both been really good the last 2 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Even when there's no precip it still seems to be mostly cloudy. If there's no storm around where exactly are all these clouds coming from? For example, after today it's supposed to be mostly cloudy for the rest of the week, but there are no storm systems around. Is this because we don't have any strong fronts to clear us out? It’s called El Niño, amped up pac jet and allot of onshore flow. We haven’t had your normal winter polar/arctic highs which bring days of brilliant sunshine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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