Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Nice El Niño rainstorm but that is pure fantasy, pattern does not support Two runs in a row pointing to a major storm of some kind somewhere on the east coast on February 5th. Yes, temperatures are marginal but this kind of storm can make its own cold air and its centered around February 5th, a rather historic time-frame. Not only that comparing last night's run to this one, changes are not subtle from run to run, last night's run being colder. I think it's worth watching this. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 18 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Nice El Niño rainstorm but that is pure fantasy, pattern does not support The good news is this is not as bad as 97/98 where there was no hope (perfect benchmark rainstorms). This February has a better shot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 45 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Two runs in a row pointing to a major storm of some kind somewhere on the east coast on February 5th. Yes, temperatures are marginal but this kind of storm can make its own cold air and its centered around February 5th, a rather historic time-frame. Not only that comparing last night's run to this one, changes are not subtle from run to run, last night's run being colder. I think it's worth watching this. WX/PT not according to DR. NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Borrowed from the MA forum. If it refuses to snow here let's root for NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: not according to DR. NO Seems like years where it repetitively snows on the Delmarva it won't here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: not according to DR. NO You are reciting the Euro verbatim. It's 9 days away. Nobody knows where the surface low and upper low are going to actually end up. The model will go through many not so subtle changes from day to day for the next 5-7 days. But you're settling for model output exactly as it is 9 days out. WX/PT 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems like years where it repetitively snows on the Delmarva it won't here. 9 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Nice El Niño rainstorm but that is pure fantasy, pattern does not support Maybe not, but it is physically possible to get from where we are to there. Give the models at least that much credit. The pattern does support a lot more posts like this one from you. Which should be entertaining enough. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Definitely a can kick for the better pattern for February. Looks like after the 12th now with the clock ticking 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Definitely a can kick for the better pattern for February. Looks like after the 12th now with the clock ticking it’s always been around the 10-15th. how is there a can kick? if anything that stuff around the 6th went from an unabated torch to at least somewhat interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s always been around the 10-15th. how is there a can kick? if anything that stuff around the 6th went from an unabated torch to at least somewhat interesting The 10th was when we kicked the trough out of the west. Now we barely see movement out at the very end of the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s always been around the 10-15th. how is there a can kick? if anything that stuff around the 6th went from an unabated torch to at least somewhat interesting Ensembles do now show a bit of a ridging signal 2/7-2/10 now which was not shown recently but lets remember the period from 2/1-2/7 7-10 days ago looked horrific compared to what it does now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s always been around the 10-15th. how is there a can kick? if anything that stuff around the 6th went from an unabated torch to at least somewhat interesting You did say 2/15. Let’s see what happens. Hope the weeklies are actually correct. I will say this though, if we get to the mid-month time frame and this becomes late February/early March for the change, we will be in big trouble at that point. Mid-February is the absolute do or die, put up or shut up point IMO, there will be no more extending it, kicking the can down the road, whatever you want to call it, further out in time anymore. Time will have run out at that juncture 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ensembles do now show a bit of a ridging signal 2/7-2/10 now which was not shown recently but lets remember the period from 2/1-2/7 7-10 days ago looked horrific compared to what it does now. that ridging signal was always there on the weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 this is extremely consistent. 14 runs and the trough is almost in the exact same spot. differences in intensity are to be expected, but the placement of features has barely moved in two weeks 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The 10th was when we kicked the trough out of the west. Now we barely see movement out at the very end of the ensembles It's moving up in time after next week. What is everyone talking about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is extremely consistent. 14 runs and the trough is almost in the exact same spot. differences in intensity are to be expected, but the placement of features has barely moved in two weeks Consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Lol the no hope crew always trying to spoil the fun in here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems like years where it repetitively snows on the Delmarva it won't here. it's an elevation year, you want a sure bet for snow you need to be in the mountains. I've always wondered why people who love snow live on the coast lol, it stands to reason the coast is always the least likely place to get consistent snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is extremely consistent. 14 runs and the trough is almost in the exact same spot. differences in intensity are to be expected, but the placement of features has barely moved in two weeks The weeklies keep the trough out west now until the 15th…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The weeklies keep the trough out west now until the 15th…. Stop trying to take away Blue Dream's good pattern. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The weeklies keep the trough out west now until the 15th…. no, they don’t 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 it’s kind of discouraging posting in here. i get that people are jaded and pessimistic, but just making stuff up to be negative is a different story. that’s just bittercasting there hasn’t been a delay. it’s been timed within a day for the last two weeks 10 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Two runs in a row pointing to a major storm of some kind somewhere on the east coast on February 5th. Yes, temperatures are marginal but this kind of storm can make its own cold air and its centered around February 5th, a rather historic time-frame. Not only that comparing last night's run to this one, changes are not subtle from run to run, last night's run being colder. I think it's worth watching this. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Check the gefs instead of trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s kind of discouraging posting in here. i get that people are jaded and pessimistic, but just making stuff up to be negative is a different story. that’s just bittercasting there hasn’t been a delay. it’s been timed within a day for the last two weeks Everything is on point This is why I like posting in the SNE subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s kind of discouraging posting in here. i get that people are jaded and pessimistic, but just making stuff up to be negative is a different story. that’s just bittercasting there hasn’t been a delay. it’s been timed within a day for the last two weeks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Seriously posting a 384 map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: that’s the 12th. what’s your point? these are the weeklies at the same time… there is lots of agreement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 January 27 and 5” of snow for the season. Based on this board I should have had 4 feet of snow by now. People need to realize a good pattern on paper doesn’t mean it will snow. Once people get that concept the overhyping will stop. It’s the overhyping that kills weather boards these days more than anything. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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