wdrag Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Added the 1/18 CPC FEBRUARY outlook and the new CPC week 3-4 issued 1/26. Both posted here on 1/26 748PM. While the anomalies are warmer than normal the first two weeks of February, it might not mean absurdly warm preventing snow in NYC. The warmer than normal anomalies seem to be more centered up in Canada, modifying the potential for true arctic intrusions down here. Guidance suggests the potential for several east coast storms In February and the possibility of snows from Asheville to Boston - I95 westward. That may be climo combined with the El Nino pattern of potentially above normal precip southern USA and up the east coast to NYC. So, can the NYC CP Feb snow total exceed our January total? Temperatures may chill down a bit in mid February? Will add on here Friday evening the 26th with the new 1/26 CPC guidance. May also add Don's stats if he has any for this pattern for Feb. Thank you all. And now the CPC Jan 31 update for Feb. Looks a little higher prob of not so much qpf, and chilled New England a bit. On March 2 attached the Feb verification. Looks like our local take verified OK with the mid month chilling, and twice the Jan paltry snow total at CP. and the CPC trend to below normal qpf also worked out with east coast events trailing off the coast south of our area. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2nd half of Feb is definitely workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 2nd half of Feb is definitely workable. Snuck in for a moment... I even think Feb 4-8 something sizable AVL-BOS. Temps as usual this winter marginal but something I think is going to have emerge from the south up the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 2nd half of Feb is definitely workable. seems a bit better than workable 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I posted this in January thread, didn’t see we had a Feb one. So reposting this since it’s for early Feb: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Are you un-cancelling winter? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Gefs is coming on board with a good pattern coming up along with the eps and euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is coming on board with a good pattern coming up along with the eps and euro. February 15 and beyond right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: February 15 and beyond right? Even before that 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Hardcore back-loaded winter? Maybe, but I'm not feeling it right now. It seems to me that you'd need some real cold somewhere to be able to generate enough to do us any good down here and there isn't much to draw from and build on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Hardcore back-loaded winter? Maybe, but I'm not feeling it right now. It seems to me that you'd need some real cold somewhere to be able to generate enough to do us any good down here and there isn't much to draw from and build on. I wonder where all that cold air in 1966-67 came from in the east, especially in a -PNA winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder where all that cold air in 1966-67 came from in the east, especially in a -PNA winter If you have a deep -EPO and a slight RNA, then we could be frigid. Especially if the RNA is not static (i.e. the winter averages RNA however you have PNA spikes). Would be good to see a PNA chart from that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Definitely some agreement for a +pna and -epo starting around 2-10. This also has backing from the seasonal guidance and mjo getting into p8. Hopefully, this isn’t delayed but I feel we should be back to tracking threats for the coast 2nd week of February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 @bluewave do you have the h5 for MJO. P1 February in a El Niño? My link doesn’t have that map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Definitely some agreement for a +pna and -epo starting around 2-10. This also has backing from the seasonal guidance and mjo getting into p8. Hopefully, this isn’t delayed but I feel we should be back to tracking threats for the coast 2nd week of February. you’re getting very close to linking those two troughs as well… that’s when you pop your -NAO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The gfs pattern is just insane 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The gfs pattern is just insane Don't do it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Don't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I'm already losing sleep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Don't do it. Gefs in agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Euro and gfs are pretty siniliar. Big pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18 hours ago, gravitylover said: Hardcore back-loaded winter? Maybe, but I'm not feeling it right now. It seems to me that you'd need some real cold somewhere to be able to generate enough to do us any good down here and there isn't much to draw from and build on. My shovel is sitting collecting dust for a second straight winter. Wouldn’t surprise me if it keeps sitting there until next year. Unless it’s to help bail out from our record rains which of course we can count on now like clockwork. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I'm already losing sleep You cray cray 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Torch won’t be on the east coast to start the month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Torch won’t be on the east coast to start the month The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet Best chance for snow will be after the 10th imo… hopefully it doesn’t get can kicked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Best chance for snow will be after the 10th imo… hopefully it doesn’t get can kicked If that Omega Block actually forms, I don’t think it will be in any big rush to leave, they usually are even more stable than Rex Blocks. It may take until mid-February or thereafter to get the potential snowstorm producing pattern in, again, assuming the weeklies are definitely correct 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: The gfs pattern is just insane CRAZY EDDIE IS THAT YOU?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Omega block pattern is starting to look real for February. Those patterns tend to be stable and do not like to just come in and out. It looks like it’s going to resemble a March pattern, a month early. Probably going to see some weird slow moving cutoff/closed low solutions and they may favor the MidAtlantic and south. It does not look like an explosive east coast I-95 snowstorm pattern….yet this is actually good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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