Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[RU848789]

This may wake a few folks up - probably a fantasy (and ratios would likely be bad for part one during the day on Sunday), but it's why we track, lol...

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Makes no sense in this pattern and it's too warm anyway at the surface.

Yep outlier 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

This may wake a few folks up - probably a fantasy (and ratios would likely be bad for part one during the day on Sunday), but it's why we track, lol...

 

Not going to happen

[RU848789]

And the GFS remains alone...

[RU848789]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not going to happen

Hence my comment that it's probably a fantasy...

[RevWarReenactor]

Its probably going to puke snow Sunday and not stick to hardly anything outside of the elevated areas, seen this story too many times. Its just not going to be cold enough. That's the worst. I'd rather just have rain. Maybe could start to stick Sunday night, but by then its wasted a lot of the precip. Bad timing with this one. 

[Snowlover11]

lalala lock in the gfs!

[Allsnow]

Last winter sucked but at the very least we didn’t have these phantom inside 3 day snow events. We all know by now it won’t happen but it makes you look anyway 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

a few days ago wasn't 60+ degrees being advertised for today ? and we are stuck in the 40's now ? IF so thats why we can't rule out anything for Sunday - Monday at this point IMO

That’s a horrible comparison 

[Stormlover74]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Last winter sucked but at the very least we didn’t have these phantom inside 3 day snow events. We all know by now it won’t happen but it makes you look anyway 

Yeah this winter is almost worse. Tracked for 3 weeks straight and have 5" total to show for it

[Dark Star]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s a horrible comparison 

That would depend if there was ANY cold air to tap into.  As of right now, there was rain all the way up to the Canadian Border.  I noticed yesterday central Quebec was below zero.  I guess you would have to have pretty intense cyclonic flow to pull enough of the cold air down?

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Last winter sucked but at the very least we didn’t have these phantom inside 3 day snow events. We all know by now it won’t happen but it makes you look anyway 

When you are waiting for the cold to come just in time it rarely works out-every so often it does which keeps us interested of course...

[HeadInTheClouds]

It's been said many times before but I just want to say what a garbage model the Nam is. The American model suite is an embarrassment. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's been said many times before but I just want to say what a garbage model the Nam is. The American model suite is an embarrassment. 

We agree. The NAM needs to be retired, awful model, possibly the worst ever. It’s now the GFS vs the world, this close in to the event. That model is in a world all to its own. Totally, completely embarrassing and pathetic

[Stormlover74]

Why are people trashing the nam?

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Why are people trashing the nam?

Because it's not A very good model

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Because it's not A very good model

Thank you 

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Because it's not A very good model

Gfs also

[Albedoman]

43 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Because it's not A very good model

NAM is a good SR model. Case closed. That is why its been around for 40+  years.  Sorry it does not show snow at your house but at my domain, 8 in of snow is shown in Macungie. Do I believe it- no way in hell.  It will be all white rain as it is elevation driven around the hills at my house for accumulation. All it shows is that the thermal profiles will be cold enough for snow but the ground will be too warm.  All SR weather models cannot predict precise ground temps or are precise on elevation snow events. This last run just demonstrates to me that white rain will fall for a few hours in Morning morning. Time to move on to mid Feb.  I really missed the 80 degrees in washington DC today. It would have been nice to open windows.

 

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs also

The GFS still hasn’t put the crack pipe down. Literally no other guidance matches it….NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, CMC, UKMET, EURO, FV3, ICON, NWS blend of models. It’s completely all alone now. It should get this storm figured out sometime Monday afternoon….

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS still hasn’t put the crack pipe down. Literally no other guidance matches it….NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, CMC, UKMET, EURO, FV3, ICON, NWS blend of models. It’s completely all alone now. It should get this storm figured out sometime Monday afternoon….

Heres a crazy thought…what if its right?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Heres a crazy thought…what if its right?

It has been in the past

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Heres a crazy thought…what if its right?

Maybe….if you believe in Bigfoot, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy. Look at the GEFS….its own ensembles don’t even agree with it. It’s such an outlier it’s not even funny 

[HeadInTheClouds]

46 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

NAM is a good SR model. Case closed. That is why its been around for 40+  years.  Sorry it does not show snow at your house but at my domain, 8 in of snow is shown in Macungie. Do I believe it- no way in hell.  It will be all white rain as it is elevation driven around the hills at my house for accumulation. All it shows is that the thermal profiles will be cold enough for snow but the ground will be too warm.  All SR weather models cannot predict precise ground temps or are precise on elevation snow events. This last run just demonstrates to me that white rain will fall for a few hours in Morning morning. Time to move on to mid Feb.  I really missed the 80 degrees in washington DC today. It would have been nice to open windows.

 

It's a bad model and pretty useless beyond 24 hours. It's run to run differences are a joke. RGEM is much better and consistent run to run. No models are perfect and they all have their flaws and biases but the American models are behind Canadian and Euro. 

[donsutherland1]

A storm will bring a moderate snowfall with some locally significant amounts to the higher elevations of the Catskills. For New York City, the storm will bring rain that could end as a period of wet snow or flurries. New York City's ongoing without daily snowfall of 2" or more--currently at 727 days today--will go on. Any snowfall amounts would be minor, as ratios will be very low.

EPS and NBE Numbers:

WPC 24-Hour Snowfall Probabilities:

This outcome is consistent with past cases where the AO was +1.000 or above and the EPO was positive.

As for the latest GFS run (18z), it is an outlier with no support from any other global model or mesoscale model. Moreover, all 31 members of the GEFS disagree with its solution. The most aggressive member of the GEFS shows just 1" of snow for New York City (actual amount would be lower as the ratios will be far less than 10:1).

Finally, in the longer-range, it still appears that a pattern change toward consistently colder conditions will likely commence during the second week of February. Consistent with climatology associated with strong El Niño events, mid-month could see colder than normal conditions.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A storm will bring a moderate snowfall with some locally significant amounts to the higher elevations of the Catskills. For New York City, the storm will bring rain that could end as a period of wet snow or flurries. New York City's ongoing without daily snowfall of 2" or more--currently at 727 days today--will go on. Any snowfall amounts would be minor, as ratios will be very low.

EPS and NBE Numbers:

WPC 24-Hour Snowfall Probabilities:

This outcome is consistent with past cases where the AO was +1.000 or above and the EPO was positive.

As for the latest GFS run (18z), it is an outlier with no support from any other global model or mesoscale model. Moreover, all 31 members of the GEFS disagree with its solution. The most aggressive member of the GEFS shows just 1" of snow for New York City (actual amount would be lower as the ratios will be far less than 10:1).

Finally, in the longer-range, it still appears that a pattern change toward consistently colder conditions will likely commence during the second week of February. Consistent with climatology associated with strong El Niño events, mid-month could see colder than normal conditions.

Don, for let's say highs in the 30s on a consistent basis are you looking at Feb 10th and beyond or more like after Feb 15th?

Also-- we're going to hit a landmark soon.  When we reach Day 730 it will be exactly 2 full years since the last 2" snowfall!

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, for let's say highs in the 30s on a consistent basis are you looking at Feb 10th and beyond or more like after Feb 15th?

Also-- we're going to hit a landmark soon.  When we reach Day 730 it will be exactly 2 full years since the last 2" snowfall!

That milestone will be reached on Monday. The cold could be arriving around the 10th and well in place by mid-month. I’m not yet sure whether there will be severe cold. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

That milestone will be reached on Monday. The cold could be arriving around the 10th and well in place by mid-month. I’m not yet sure whether there will be severe cold. 

The good thing about February is we don't need severe cold for snow, temps in the 30s would be enough.

[wdrag]

I'll update the headline around 10A to include OBS and any other possible minimizing considerations. Pretty big banding signal front end Sunday morning with heavier rain mixing very briefly with wet snow NYC I80 and possibly changing to a period of heavy wet snow for 3 hours late Sunday morning on snow ratios way down.  More at about 10A.  

 

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I'll update the headline around 10A to include OBS and any other possible minimizing considerations. Pretty big banding signal front end Sunday morning with heavier rain mixing very briefly with wet snow NYC I80 and possibly changing to a period of heavy wet snow for 3 hours late Sunday morning on snow ratios way down.  More at about 10A.  

 

A review of the soundings on the 12z HRRR shows very nicely the features you are speaking of.  You will need elevation (as always) to get the best results from this.  I would agree places along I80 and north would be best positioned to see this.  I also like the fact that there is no strong southerly flow at 925mb to impede this.