Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[HeadInTheClouds]

00Z Nam

 

[RU848789]

It's the NAM just about past the end of its useful range, but still an impressive shift SE in snowfall shield, so maybe a ray of hope for 95/coast...

 

And here's the graphic through the end of the run.  

[MJO812]

Just now, RU848789 said:

It's the NAM just about past the end of its useful range, but still an impressive shift SE in snowfall shield, so maybe a ray of hope for 95/coast...

More confluence 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

NBE nice starting point for NYC - we'll see again but am not too confident they're reading in nearly enough snowfall terrain north of I80.  It would be a colossal bust for the EPS if this does not occur and I'm starting to see some problems in the NBE as I look closely at event after event. It's a starting point.

Still have a few more cycles of modeling for a slight change in everything we're seeing.  

My hope is the 00z/26 GGEM is following the 18z RGEM southward expansion of snow,  to nearly what it was a day ago.  Just not sure about the EPS but it is fairly ominous for pockets of power problems I84 high terrain.  Sooner or later it has to back down or other modeling has to come up.  

I suspect the I-84 area will be hit fairly hard. Tonight’s guidance should provide some good insight (or at least I hope so).

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect the I-84 area will be hit fairly hard. Tonight’s guidance should provide some good insight (or at least I hope so).

Don - do you (or Walt or anyone else) know if the NBM continuously updates its maps (like snowfall, precip, etc.) as each model output is received, since the outputs come out for a suite over 3+ hours?  I haven't notice it change much, though, during that time for past events and I can't imagine they have an "advance copy" of the output hours before we do.  

[Tatamy]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

More confluence 

Need to get the RGEM / GGEM in on this.  Not happening as of now.

[Stormlover74]

The nam had an inch of rain for tonight now it has a quarter inch. It's shit

[HeadInTheClouds]

Always warm RGEM not enthused for snow except for elevated areas well N and W. 850's are below 0 just N and W of NYC. 

 

 

[Nibor]

Thinking I'm gonna head back to the Catskills for this one.

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Don - do you (or Walt or anyone else) know if the NBM continuously updates its maps (like snowfall, precip, etc.) as each model output is received, since the outputs come out for a suite over 3+ hours?  I haven't notice it change much, though, during that time for past events and I can't imagine they have an "advance copy" of the output hours before we do.  

The NBM is updated hourly. Here’s the list of models that are used:

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Need to get the RGEM / GGEM in on this.  Not happening as of now.

Yeah, they slammed the door pretty hard on the hopes raised by the NAM and a bit by the GFS, although at this point, we can't know the outcome yet - but it sure would've been nice if we saw at least some consensus on a colder solution.  

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

It's the NAM just about past the end of its useful range, but still an impressive shift SE in snowfall shield, so maybe a ray of hope for 95/coast...

 

And here's the graphic through the end of the run.  

The God awful NAM at the end of its run and at 10:1 ratios. Good luck with that lol

[MJO812]

How cruel 

[wishcast_hater]

While my AccuWeather app is calling for 3-6” at the moment for me I don’t expect more than 1 or 2”. Hopefully I’m wrong.


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[wdrag]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect the I-84 area will be hit fairly hard. Tonight’s guidance should provide some good insight (or at least I hope so).

GREAT uncertainty: See the much more. conservative attached 5AM NWS deterministic snowfall forecast that is the basis of their forecasts issued early today. I went much heavier elevation dependent.  I could be crushingly wrong.  Yet, I feel the need to provide guidance and certainly plan for myself with grandkids in the Poconos and many friends here.  Also attached NWS ensemble chance of 1 and 4".  The icing chance is not attached for Saturday-Sunday but that is also a factor for at least N CT-MA higher terrain. 

My expectation: Two to 8" wet snow likely elevation dependent I84 corridor. Uncertainty exists on when rain changes to mostly wet snow on Sunday and how much. Elevations above 1000 feet have the best chance of exceeding 4" (Poconos, northern Sussex County into Orange County-Litchfield Hills). Meanwhile, Newton in southern Sussex County down into Warren County and east to Kinnelon NJ and back into the Easton PA-Phillipsburg NJ area maybe only get an inch of slushy snow with manageable travel and roads wet during the day Sunday. Temps during the snow Sunday 32-34F with occasional melting on pavement at all elevations. Suggest factor in possible delays into the Poconos - I84 itself with best accumulations before sunrise Sunday and after sunset Sunday evening. Power outage problems may develop whereever 4+" of snow accumulates. Not all modeling agrees but plan for the worst and it may turn out much less hazardous than I expect.  

[wdrag]

57 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

While my AccuWeather app is calling for 3-6” at the moment for me I don’t expect more than 1 or 2”. Hopefully I’m wrong.


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ELEVATION dependent. Valleys: roads wet, grass etc slushy.  I think if we get above 1000 feet, it should look much more interesting and an interesting ride along the NYT (I87), I84, I91 valleys looking vertically Monday morning. 

[RevWarReenactor]

39 minutes ago, wdrag said:

ELEVATION dependent. Valleys: roads wet, grass etc slushy.  I think if we get above 1000 feet, it should look much more interesting and an interesting ride along the NYT (I87), I84, I91 valleys looking vertically Monday morning. 

Yeah- the NWS accumulation map looks reasonable. The model maps do not. Temps during the day Sunday don't support those accumulations outside of the elevated areas IMO. I think a lot of people will see white rain. 

[donsutherland1]

56 minutes ago, wdrag said:

GREAT uncertainty: See the much more. conservative attached 5AM NWS deterministic snowfall forecast that is the basis of their forecasts issued early today. I went much heavier elevation dependent.  I could be crushingly wrong.  Yet, I feel the need to provide guidance and certainly plan for myself with grandkids in the Poconos and many friends here.  Also attached NWS ensemble chance of 1 and 4".  The icing chance is not attached for Saturday-Sunday but that is also a factor for at least N CT-MA higher terrain. 

My expectation: Two to 8" wet snow likely elevation dependent I84 corridor. Uncertainty exists on when rain changes to mostly wet snow on Sunday and how much. Elevations above 1000 feet have the best chance of exceeding 4" (Poconos, northern Sussex County into Orange County-Litchfield Hills). Meanwhile, Newton in southern Sussex County down into Warren County and east to Kinnelon NJ and back into the Easton PA-Phillipsburg NJ area maybe only get an inch of slushy snow with manageable travel and roads wet during the day Sunday. Temps during the snow Sunday 32-34F with occasional melting on pavement at all elevations. Suggest factor in possible delays into the Poconos - I84 itself with best accumulations before sunrise Sunday and after sunset Sunday evening. Power outage problems may develop whereever 4+" of snow accumulates. Not all modeling agrees but plan for the worst and it may turn out much less hazardous than I expect.  

This storm is looking more and more like a late-season elevation-dependent storm. I agree with you about there possibly being big differences once at 1000-feet or above with possibly up to 8" in some of the highest elevations.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

ELEVATION dependent. Valleys: roads wet, grass etc slushy.  I think if we get above 1000 feet, it should look much more interesting and an interesting ride along the NYT (I87), I84, I91 valleys looking vertically Monday morning. 

Every storm is elevation.  It's so annoying. 

Can we please go back to the snowy winters . 

[donsutherland1]

Latest EPS and NBE numbers:

It should be noted that any snow in the New York City and Newark areas will very likely be very low- to low-ratio snow.

Meanwhile, New York City's streak of less than 2" daily snowfall rolls on.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Yeah- the NWS accumulation map looks reasonable. The model maps do not. Temps during the day Sunday don't support those accumulations outside of the elevated areas IMO. I think a lot of people will see white rain. 

Maybe it will verify, and we need to watch NAM (so called bad model) trends remain with the thermal structure that its 06z/26 modeled for I80 north.

 

FWIW( same poster 10 to 1 too high) but the 06z/26 EPS chance of 1" of snow (make it 1/2" at a temp of 32-33F non pavement).  Front end Sunday morning may surprise.  Pretty big lift from se inflow jet that is cooling the thermal structure.  Gradient is subject to nil snowfall in NJ but the core that skirts MPO-FWN northward deserved a little more snow, I thought. Surface temps marginal for acc, especially roads along and s of I80. In the hills---drive carefully.

Will revisit tomorrow morning as have family and work and at that time, I'll adjust the headline to include OBS. 

 

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

How cruel 

Why cruel? That literally puts me in some good snow. Hop on Metro North and get up to Putnam or Dutchess County. I don’t think we bite up here. 

[North and West]

Every storm is elevation.  It's so annoying. 
Can we please go back to the snowy winters . 

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[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

has electricity reached your log cabin yet?


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People do get tired of hearing "North and West" on the news all the time lol.

 

[North and West]

People do get tired of hearing "North and West" on the news all the time lol.
 

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[wishcast_hater]

People do get tired of hearing "North and West" on the news all the time lol.
 

North and West or North of 287 was the phraseology used during the 80’s and a good part of the 90’s. Obviously it was to the delight of snow lovers who lived in those areas and the death blow to those closer to the coast. Now I’m up above 84 and even at times that isn’t north enough for some snows.


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[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

North and West or North of 287 was the phraseology used during the 80’s and a good part of the 90’s. Obviously it was to the delight of snow lovers who lived in those areas and the death blow to those closer to the coast. Now I’m up above 84 and even at times that isn’t north enough for some snows.


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Yes exactly.  I remember back in the late 80s and early 90s when they said 5-10" of snow there, I was like WHAT?! Hadn't even seen a 5" snowstorm in several years at that point.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

I mean, you're famous or infamous, take your pick lol

 

[MJO812]

LOL gfs

[SBUWX23]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL gfs

Makes no sense in this pattern and it's too warm anyway at the surface.