Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[MJO812]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I thought you were jealous of Boston and SNE though?

 

I am 

[wdrag]

WPC take on 1/4" ice/snow water equiv. Dark green is the primary threat region. 12z Canadian moving north for one cycle and hopefully slips back south but now it's a GEFS/EPS consistency split on probs. Canadian move is not what I wanted to see. LI best chc wet sloppy snow 12-18z Monday with comma head enhancement rolling eswd through LI and probably lots of pavement melting=wet roads. 

Question on timing most of the snow I84 should be Sunday night-Monday morning.

[RevWarReenactor]

My chasing interests have shifted northward. I am thinking Albany.

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

My chasing interests have shifted northward. I am thinking Albany.

You might want to try the Berks, Green or White Mountains. Low elevations might not be the best given the crap preceding airmass. 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

My chasing interests have shifted northward. I am thinking Albany.

Why chasing this event ?

[winterwx21]

Not surprisingly the Euro continues to get warmer on the 12z run. Now you have to go to NW NJ to see a snow event on the Euro. 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

You might want to try the Berks, Green or White Mountains. Low elevations might not be the best given the crap preceding airmass. 

isn't arctic air pushing down?

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't arctic air pushing down?

 

Not really on the lastest 12z runs

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

isn't arctic air pushing down?

 

The cold air would come behind the storm. 

[milleand]

The New England thread for this storm makes this thread look like Church (bickering). They are getting wild in there lol

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The cold air would come behind the storm. 

well at least we'll get some snow showers at the end of the storm then Monday morning.

Something's better than nothing

 

[wdrag]

CMCE-EPS 12z ensembles make the 12z op's look pretty inaccurate.  They are further south with snow-- and probably a little flatter than the 00z-06z/25.  

I haven't looked in detail but those of us who have pivotal can do a 06z-12z compare on snow depth change and prob for 1" and draw your own conclusions.

My guess is the 00z/26 GGGEM (Canadian) will be colder and snowier sooner and the 12z EC OP throwing a narrow swath of 6+ in the hills of nwNJ into se NYS looked suspicious along with the early quit. Either solution is part of a myriad of outcomes and suggest using a smoother  ensemble approach. 

The model message (I think): discontinuous - disorganized indicators, possibly related to the upper air structure.  I can't conclude what that will look like but uncertainty prevails on snowfall and imo need to wait some more.  

 

Back tonight or tomorrow morning. 

[wdrag]

On colder air: think we need to watch what happens in MA tomorrow night-Friday as there is some NAM signal on some BL CAA. If it doesn't depart, it could be easier to turn over to snow.  EPS has a small chance of ice in the transition over the I84 hills. 

[wdrag]

Just now, wdrag said:

On colder air: think we need to watch what happens in MA tomorrow night-Friday as there is some NAM signal on some BL CAA. If it doesn't depart, it could be easier to turn over to snow.  EPS has a small chance of ice in the transition over the I84 hills. 

Anyway,  that's what I will monitor.  

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, milleand said:

The New England thread for this storm makes this thread look like Church (bickering). They are getting wild in there lol

They are worried about lack of moisture now 

[Allsnow]

24 minutes ago, milleand said:

The New England thread for this storm makes this thread look like Church (bickering). They are getting wild in there lol

Brutal for them…

 

another mild and below avg snowfall  season has sent many over the edge 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal for them…

 

another mild and below avg snowfall  season has sent many over the edge 

for some it is their livelihood

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal for them…

 

another mild and below avg snowfall  season has sent many over the edge 

Nothing we can do about it 

[the_other_guy]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal for them…

 

another mild and below avg snowfall  season has sent many over the edge 

well, they better get used to it. It sure seems to be the new normal. They’ll be some good winters with a lot of bad ones in between. it’s just too warm.

 

Humans evolve. can’t cling to the past and hope it goes back

[Brian5671]

49 minutes ago, milleand said:

The New England thread for this storm makes this thread look like Church (bickering). They are getting wild in there lol

3 years of garbage winters will do that...

[North and West]

3 years of garbage winters will do that...

.

[donsutherland1]

Latest EPS and NBE numbers:

[qg_omega]

This looks like zero for NYC and the coast

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

3 years of garbage winters will do that...

honestly, people would be in a much better mood if it was 60 and sunny.

People are sick and tired of the rain and gloom

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

well, they better get used to it. It sure seems to be the new normal. They’ll be some good winters with a lot of bad ones in between. it’s just too warm.

 

Humans evolve. can’t cling to the past and hope it goes back

I can't wait until we start modifying the climate.  I mean, on purpose lol

You know human nature-- we will go well beyond hope and start tinkering with it ourselves

 

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

CMCE-EPS 12z ensembles make the 12z op's look pretty inaccurate.  They are further south with snow-- and probably a little flatter than the 00z-06z/25.  

I haven't looked in detail but those of us who have pivotal can do a 06z-12z compare on snow depth change and prob for 1" and draw your own conclusions.

My guess is the 00z/26 GGGEM (Canadian) will be colder and snowier sooner and the 12z EC OP throwing a narrow swath of 6+ in the hills of nwNJ into se NYS looked suspicious along with the early quit. Either solution is part of a myriad of outcomes and suggest using a smoother  ensemble approach. 

The model message (I think): discontinuous - disorganized indicators, possibly related to the upper air structure.  I can't conclude what that will look like but uncertainty prevails on snowfall and imo need to wait some more.  

 

Back tonight or tomorrow morning. 

Still a lot of confusion on what to believe, but the EC and EPS from 18z/25 have struck down the north idea, are much faster with change to wet snow and definitely fit the thread outlined.  Whether we can muster any accum NYC/LI is very uncertain- but I think the I84 corridor is the place to be...terrain above 1000 feet.  Basically the EPS/EC has smoothed out its messy 12z op cycle and says much faster for change to 32-33F wet snow, with melting on pavement during the daylight hours but a problem hazardous event at times.  Going to need a hazard advisory of some sort.  We're only 48-60 hours from starting.  Also 4+ at 32-33F could initiate a few isolated power outages by 11PM Sunday within 15 miles of I84 and terrain above 1000 feet. 

[wdrag]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latest EPS and NBE numbers:

NBE nice starting point for NYC - we'll see again but am not too confident they're reading in nearly enough snowfall terrain north of I80.  It would be a colossal bust for the EPS if this does not occur and I'm starting to see some problems in the NBE as I look closely at event after event. It's a starting point.

Still have a few more cycles of modeling for a slight change in everything we're seeing.  

My hope is the 00z/26 GGEM is following the 18z RGEM southward expansion of snow,  to nearly what it was a day ago.  Just not sure about the EPS but it is fairly ominous for pockets of power problems I84 high terrain.  Sooner or later it has to back down or other modeling has to come up.  

[JustinRP37]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I can't wait until we start modifying the climate.  I mean, on purpose lol

You know human nature-- we will go well beyond hope and start tinkering with it ourselves

 

Horrible idea for so many reasons. 

[snywx]

29 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Still a lot of confusion on what to believe, but the EC and EPS from 18z/25 have struck down the north idea, are much faster with change to wet snow and definitely fit the thread outlined.  Whether we can muster any accum NYC/LI is very uncertain- but I think the I84 corridor is the place to be...terrain above 1000 feet.  Basically the EPS/EC has smoothed out its messy 12z op cycle and says much faster for change to 32-33F wet snow, with melting on pavement during the daylight hours but a problem hazardous event at times.  Going to need a hazard advisory of some sort.  We're only 48-60 hours from starting.  Also 4+ at 32-33F could initiate a few isolated power outages by 11PM Sunday within 15 miles of I84 and terrain above 1000 feet. 

18z GFS had warning level snows for much of the 84 corridor as well. 

[the_other_guy]

This is a weird thread.

 

Why no maps??