Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This setup isn't awful. Yes the first half of the storm is rain but if the transfer happens quick and it's strong then we will flip to snow.

Sure it's plausible but it's very unlikely

[MJO812]

Just now, Rjay said:

Sure it's plausible but it's very unlikely

That's why we just watch and see what happens .

[MJO812]

Gfs is starting to trend towards the other models with a closure of H5 and better confluence up north 

[Stormlover74]

Congrats delmarva on the gfs

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Congrats delmarva on the gfs

Perfectly place coastal low and surface looks like that lol

[MJO812]

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Sure it's plausible but it's very unlikely

Like you said, God awful setup. Not even worth listing all the negatives. There’s going to be a lot of disapppointed people here, north and west of NYC included. Nothing is good about this storm if you want snow and I’m not saying that because I’m trolling or being a mean person or trying to take away people’s snow. 
 

Word to the wise DO NOT use 10:1 ratio snowmaps with this event. They are going to be so grossly inaccurate it’s not going to be funny. Use the positive snow depth change maps only, if they aren’t available on Pivotal, use Kuchera. We will be lucky to see 5:1 ratios, even north and west of NYC 

[HeadInTheClouds]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Like you said, God awful setup. Not even worth listing all the negatives. There’s going to be a lot of disapppointed people here, north and west of NYC included. Nothing is good about this storm if you want snow and I’m not saying that because I’m trolling or being a mean person or trying to take away people’s snow. 
 

Word to the wise DO NOT use 10:1 ratio snowmaps with this event. They are going to be so grossly inaccurate it’s not going to be funny. Use the positive snow depth change maps only, if they aren’t available on Pivotal, use Kuchera. We will be lucky to see 5:1 ratios, even north and west of NYC 

 

[George001]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This setup isn't awful. Yes the first half of the storm is rain but if the transfer happens quick and it's strong then we will flip to snow.

I think some of you are not paying attention to the trend of the PNA ridge out west.

Yeah the ridge is very amplified, there is also a mid 1030s high to the north. 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Like you said, God awful setup. Not even worth listing all the negatives. There’s going to be a lot of disapppointed people here, north and west of NYC included. Nothing is good about this storm if you want snow and I’m not saying that because I’m trolling or being a mean person or trying to take away people’s snow. 
 

Word to the wise DO NOT use 10:1 ratio snowmaps with this event. They are going to be so grossly inaccurate it’s not going to be funny. Use the positive snow depth change maps only, if they aren’t available on Pivotal, use Kuchera. We will be lucky to see 5:1 ratios, even north and west of NYC 

Yes we get it lol 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

[George001]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes we get it lol 

I don’t think the setup is as bad as he’s saying, but snowman does bring up a good point about snow ratios. On the 0z Euro for most of the storm the temps are hovering around 33-34 degrees. This does support snowman’s argument that 10:1 maps are overdone, as with temps in that range ratios typically are in the 7:1-5:1 range. However, this is an INCREDIBLY difficult forecast. What if the Euro is off 2 degrees and it’s actually 31? Then you are taking maybe 12:1. On the other hand, if it’s a couple degrees warmer it’s straight up rain. With that high to the north I would think it’s more likely we tick colder than warmer. 

[MJO812]

All the models have a nice coastal track. Just depends on how fast the cold air can come in.

[donsutherland1]

WPC Winter Storm Severity Index Maps:

 

 

 

 

[Yanksfan]

6Z GFS is a tick colder.

[JustinRP37]

So odd that so many are saying winter is over for the sub forum when my second largest snowfall of the season could be in the way and it wouldn’t take much to make it the biggest snowfall of the season. Last I checked Putnam and Dutchess counties should be included in this sub forum. 

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

So odd that so many are saying winter is over for the sub forum when my second largest snowfall of the season could be in the way and it wouldn’t take much to make it the biggest snowfall of the season. Last I checked Putnam and Dutchess counties should be included in this sub forum. 

They are. 
 

if you dont want to discuss a storm potential, or are only here to mock those who do, we can gladly help you stay out of the threads here. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Sure it's plausible but it's very unlikely

we can say and think this but the major media outlets are already calling for a change to snow on the coast late Sunday night and into Monday morning

and by major media outlets I mean Lee Goldberg, I haven't watched the others lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Uggh SNE again

be glad if you even get an inch or two out of this, that's all one can expect.

[wdrag]

Power outage problems may develop in the red colored area of the attached 4+" chance. Note those chances are higher than what we posted yesterday. Not all modeling agrees with this but think it wise to plan for this but all models are increasingly concerned since 24 hours ago.

Banding possible up in the I84 corridor... 

Agreed snow ratios. NYC-LI...not threaded more than 1/2-2" (slop)

Offline til tonight or Fri AM.  Try to keep NYC in some sort of snow mix the last 25% of the storm. 

[wdrag]

NYC-LI..please take what you can get out of this.  The Feb thread was started...where there may be a little more hope (kick the can?).

Primary big snow is favored north-northwest fringe of the subforum. Something to track and see how it evolves. NYC still in the mix for 1/2-2" tail end back side--slushy. 

[North and West]

I will chase ghosts then with other forums then 

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[North and West]

Barely anything: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012500&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

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[JustinRP37]

15 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

They are. 
 

if you dont want to discuss a storm potential, or are only here to mock those who do, we can gladly help you stay out of the threads here. 

It is crazy because as Walt just pointed out a decent part of the subforum could see power issues. Could this be the year I regret not getting the house wired yet for a backup generator (my brother in-law gave me a large portable generator that can run most of the house). Going to get that done this spring/summer.

This is one of those storms I could see people in the northern burbs not being fully prepared for because of the warmth and rain.  

[Dark Star]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's why we just watch and see what happens .

Sounds like a commentary on the entire science of Meteorology?

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Sounds like a commentary on the entire science of Meteorology?

It's not an exact science and nothing is perfectly predictable.

 

[jm1220]

I’m not optimistic on this one mostly because we’re in a position near the coast where we have to wait for cold air to come in or dynamics to generate cold which mostly fail here. Of course places that need less help like up near I-84 or I-90 to Boston are favored. There’s the PNA that could help this be a good track but an L in the right place doesn’t guarantee snow, and we’re going into it with a putrid airmass. 97-98 type system. 

[Allsnow]

06z euro was very flat and east. Only goes out to hour 90 but it wouldn’t be like 00z

[donsutherland1]

Latest EPS and NBE numbers:

The area of potentially appreciable with perhaps some pockets of significant snowfall will likely be north of the New York City and Newark areas. It will likely run from northwest New Jersey eastward across the Hudson Valley (northern half would do better than the southern half under the present guidance) and across central New England, including Poughkeepsie, Hartford, Worcester, and Boston.

[North and West]

Yeah I dont know what his thing is with new england lol, he's not even a Yankees fan
 

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