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Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.


wdrag
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I'm aware this was a wrong  forecast south of I84.  I'll post maps of snowfall this evening.  

You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks.  No single model is best every time but the blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). 

Any future winter threads for NYC (if there are any?) will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future (if there any) in addition to the EPS probs. 

 

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25 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Or FTL.  But it does seem to have happened.

Ha i spoke too soon. Steady snow now over the island.
 

Sound effect snow in full effect now. Will add up to noting haha. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

Ha i spoke too soon. Steady snow now over the island.
 

Sound effect snow in full effect now. Will add up to noting haha. 

Final total in Boston looks like it was 0.3”. No moderate event for them either. :( What a pathetic storm in a pathetic winter. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Final total in Boston looks like it was 0.3”. No moderate event for them either. :( What a pathetic storm in a pathetic winter. 

Actually a nice burst of snow just to your east. Building west a bit?

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20 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Total rainfall here with this last event was 1.37".  Trace of snow yesterday morning.

Majority of this rain fell with the temperatures between 33 and 35 degrees !  Frustrating to say the least.

I wasn't expecting much, maybe a half inch on colder surfaces but didn't even get that.

We got about 1.15".  News 12 showed a segment claiming our area got 3.9" of rainfall per radar estimates, which was wildly inaccurate.  On top of a 1" snowfall forecast which we didn't see a flake of either.

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Click for clarity if you're interested in snowfall for this weekends I84 event. The 2 day would slightly more ne PA but this was the essentials. 

Repeating a little from this morning's wrap.

 

You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks.  No single model is best every time but the NBM blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). 

Any future initialized winter threads for NYC will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future, in addition to the globals EPS probs and EPS positive snow depth change,  which will make a routine of 6 graphics plus the NBM graphic.   29/659P

Screen Shot 2024-01-29 at 6.47.54 PM.png

Screen Shot 2024-01-29 at 6.53.04 PM.png

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9 hours ago, wdrag said:

Click for clarity if you're interested in snowfall for this weekends I84 event. The 2 day would slightly more ne PA but this was the essentials. 

Repeating a little from this morning's wrap.

 

You'll note via initial thread issuance, that the EPS prob of 1" ended up the worst of the outlooks.  No single model is best every time but the NBM blend works, especially as the NWS has incorporated many elements that we don't see here outside the NWS domain via National Blend of Models (NBM). 

Any future initialized winter threads for NYC will incorporate the National Blend of Models (NBM) which did very well on this non-event south of I84 and am sure was part of the guidance for the conservative NWS deterministic snow forecasts. I've seen this NBM perform well on big rain events. This is my first winter utilizing it. I'll make sure it is added to the initial thread issuance in the future, in addition to the globals EPS probs and EPS positive snow depth change,  which will make a routine of 6 graphics plus the NBM graphic.   29/659P

Screen Shot 2024-01-29 at 6.47.54 PM.png

Screen Shot 2024-01-29 at 6.53.04 PM.png

wow so only 0.9" at Mt Pocono?  That 0.2" in Nassau County on Long Island looks a little strange lol.

 

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