Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[lee59]

Looks like some heavier precip. in the D.C. area. If that holds together and moves up here, some may get a little more snow than expected. Maybe it is just me  with wishful thinking

[sussexcountyobs]

Down to 32.5°

Still light drizzly rain.

[NorthShoreWx]

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level dry across the area has resulted in mainly drizzle and/or light rain for the afternoon hours, but every now and then a heavier pocket may mix with sleet and/or snow as verified by mPING reports. The upper low/trough will move across the area and precipitation should fill back in with a moistening vertical profile. Expect the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) to moisten and rain to transition to snow through the night with even a rain/snow mix getting down to the coast during the early morning hours. However, temperatures are forecast to generally be above freezing through the night with the possible exception of higher elevations across inland areas. Precipitation will generally be light, so any accumulations should be minor. Liquid equivalent overnight into Monday will be about a 0.25". Also interesting to note, as surface low pressure passes to the south and east, gusty NE winds will become more northerly through the night. For Long Island, this will be off the Long Island Sound. Multiple high res models are picking on a west to east enhancement in the precipitation across Long Island. This is due to a moist upslope component which has been noted in past events. It doesn`t take much elevation to help squeeze out a bit more. This may be enough to provide a coating of snow across this area.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Down to 31.6 and looks like the precip is about to shutoff and move north of me. 
 

What a super event it was. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Very light snow now falling. I'll call it snizzle. 32.4°

[lee59]

Wintry at Hunter Mountain in the Catskills.

 

https://www.huntermtn.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level dry across the area has resulted in mainly drizzle and/or light rain for the afternoon hours, but every now and then a heavier pocket may mix with sleet and/or snow as verified by mPING reports. The upper low/trough will move across the area and precipitation should fill back in with a moistening vertical profile. Expect the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) to moisten and rain to transition to snow through the night with even a rain/snow mix getting down to the coast during the early morning hours. However, temperatures are forecast to generally be above freezing through the night with the possible exception of higher elevations across inland areas. Precipitation will generally be light, so any accumulations should be minor. Liquid equivalent overnight into Monday will be about a 0.25". Also interesting to note, as surface low pressure passes to the south and east, gusty NE winds will become more northerly through the night. For Long Island, this will be off the Long Island Sound. Multiple high res models are picking on a west to east enhancement in the precipitation across Long Island. This is due to a moist upslope component which has been noted in past events. It doesn`t take much elevation to help squeeze out a bit more. This may be enough to provide a coating of snow across this area.

Interesting.  Yeah that shading of slightly more snow right along the spine of the island w/less north and south - can't say I've ever seen a forecast map like that before. 

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Interesting.  Yeah that shading of slightly more snow right along the spine of the island w/less north and south - can't say I've ever seen a forecast map like that before. 

That was the high end forecast.  This is what to expect:

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If it lasts for 30 years trust me, the next "good" period wont be as good to us, we only have to look at the climate projections to see that.

 

I mean, 2000 through 2018 was warmer than 55 through 69 so who knows. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

It's warmer now...

Right, but that may increase snowfall in larger storms that are cold enough.

Perhaps less storms but more snow and less suppression (SE ridge).

Too early to tell.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level dry across the area has resulted in mainly drizzle and/or light rain for the afternoon hours, but every now and then a heavier pocket may mix with sleet and/or snow as verified by mPING reports. The upper low/trough will move across the area and precipitation should fill back in with a moistening vertical profile. Expect the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) to moisten and rain to transition to snow through the night with even a rain/snow mix getting down to the coast during the early morning hours. However, temperatures are forecast to generally be above freezing through the night with the possible exception of higher elevations across inland areas. Precipitation will generally be light, so any accumulations should be minor. Liquid equivalent overnight into Monday will be about a 0.25". Also interesting to note, as surface low pressure passes to the south and east, gusty NE winds will become more northerly through the night. For Long Island, this will be off the Long Island Sound. Multiple high res models are picking on a west to east enhancement in the precipitation across Long Island. This is due to a moist upslope component which has been noted in past events. It doesn`t take much elevation to help squeeze out a bit more. This may be enough to provide a coating of snow across this area.

LFG. lol 

upslope snow on LI to nickel and dime to 6” of snowfall? My god are times tough 

[Superstorm93]

Any obs from around West Milford or Greenwood Lake? I've heard rumors of coatings to basically nothing. 

Some clarity would be nice lol 

[coastalplainsnowman]

25 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

That was the high end forecast.  This is what to expect:

If I gave the impression that I'm hanging my hat on, or am enthusiastic about,  a 10% chance 0.5" snow forecast, allow me to clarify that I am not.

Honestly just thought that the map was interesting.  

[NorthShoreWx]

46 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Interesting.  Yeah that shading of slightly more snow right along the spine of the island w/less north and south - can't say I've ever seen a forecast map like that before. 

It happens.  This was the high end forecast; more of a what-if map.  I like to look at them because, even when wrong, they sometimes highlight mesoscale differences that might not be evident in the actual forecast.  This was the case during our most recent snowfall about 9 days ago.  You can get the same ideas by closely examining multiple meso models, but this is a little bit of a quick cheat.

[snywx]

You have to go above 700’ here to find any evidence of accumulation. Currently all snow above 900’ with about 1” otg above 1200’. You had to be above 2000’ to see anything substantial 

[sussexcountyobs]

24 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Any obs from around West Milford or Greenwood Lake? I've heard rumors of coatings to basically nothing. 

Some clarity would be nice lol 

In Vernon. Right by West Milford border.  @ 1207ft. It is snowing lightly. Very wet snow. Windshields on cars in driveway getting slushy. 32°

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

In Vernon. Right by West Milford border.  @ 1207ft. It is snowing lightly. Very wet snow. Windshields on cars in driveway getting slushy. 32°

Perfect. Thank you! 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level dry across the area has resulted in mainly drizzle and/or light rain for the afternoon hours, but every now and then a heavier pocket may mix with sleet and/or snow as verified by mPING reports. The upper low/trough will move across the area and precipitation should fill back in with a moistening vertical profile. Expect the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) to moisten and rain to transition to snow through the night with even a rain/snow mix getting down to the coast during the early morning hours. However, temperatures are forecast to generally be above freezing through the night with the possible exception of higher elevations across inland areas. Precipitation will generally be light, so any accumulations should be minor. Liquid equivalent overnight into Monday will be about a 0.25". Also interesting to note, as surface low pressure passes to the south and east, gusty NE winds will become more northerly through the night. For Long Island, this will be off the Long Island Sound. Multiple high res models are picking on a west to east enhancement in the precipitation across Long Island. This is due to a moist upslope component which has been noted in past events. It doesn`t take much elevation to help squeeze out a bit more. This may be enough to provide a coating of snow across this area.

Guess we’ll find out. Fingers crossed. I’ve noticed that enhanced area across the middle of the island for the last day or so on the high res models but sometimes they overdo elevation enhanced snow/precip. 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Looks like some heavier precip. in the D.C. area. If that holds together and moves up here, some may get a little more snow than expected. Maybe it is just me  with wishful thinking

? Most of any future precip will likely retrograde back from the north?

[HeadInTheClouds]

33 with moderate snow, around a half inch. 

[lee59]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

? Most of any future precip will likely retrograde back from the north?

Yea it is heading east. If it holds it may eventually head northeast and hit eastern New England but will probably just go harmlessly out to sea.

[weathermedic]

.97 in the bucket at my place so far

[psv88]

11 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

? Most of any future precip will likely retrograde back from the north?

Yup. Hence the sound enhancement. BL definitely too warm for accums on the island 

[psv88]

Currently 33 in Montreal and Toronto, goes to show what a terrible airmass this is

[Rjay]

Been 37 and rain here for hours. 

[gravitylover]

56 minutes ago, snywx said:

You have to go above 700’ here to find any evidence of accumulation. Currently all snow above 900’ with about 1” otg above 1200’. You had to be above 2000’ to see anything substantial 

Yup 700 here too but the roads were slushy in Brewster at ~400' around 7:30. I84 was wet from Waterbury to the west side of Danbury when it got grainy. 

[wishcast_hater]

Yea it is heading east. If it holds it may eventually head northeast and hit eastern New England but will probably just go harmlessly out to sea.

Everything is ragged and falling apart. I wouldn’t count on it.


.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Guess we’ll find out. Fingers crossed. I’ve noticed that enhanced area across the middle of the island for the last day or so on the high res models but sometimes they overdo elevation enhanced snow/precip. 

Maybe on top of Jane’s hill at just under 400’ the snowiest place on the island. 
Meanwhile at my uncles place at 1900’ just south of Binghamton on the Pa side 6” of snow globe snow. 

[LAVistaNY]

I just drove from western Maine to Westchester- the only time driving was dicey was around Worcester!

 

Home now 34°  1.31 in the rain gauge.

[Brian5671]

Short term models were too cold for areas south of I 84 yesterday