Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[wdrag]

A short wave currently dropping sewd from the Pacific Northwest dives down into the Four Corners region Friday then lifts out into mid Atlantic states Sunday.  Five day in advance graphics are posted including the EPS which has been steadiest and slipping slightly south as we draw closer to the weekend.  Please read the labels.  Most are 24 hours that end Sunday night...the EPS the fastest. 

The three global models for chance of 1" or more are attached, the EPS for 4+ which has been the highest and most cohesive for the past couple of days and I added the EPS 850MB wind field to show nose of the jet potential enhancement of precipitation Sunday night.  

Mild air in advance of the system will probably mean rain or melting of the wet snow at the start early Sunday, but by Sunday night, it should be cold enough for even untreated pavement accumulations down to I78, of course dependent on snow occurring. A period of ice is possible in the anticipated interior transition to snow--especially hills. 

Cold air flowing southward Monday on gusty winds will probably mean freezing up of whatever slush and possible early Monday delays. 

Uncertainties prevail - including track-flattening-weaker-stronger etc, but think this is worthy of monitoring for a minor-low impact event NYC and a potential light-moderate snow event for the interior from eastern PA across NNJ se NYS CT.  

 

933 AM Saturday 1/27/24: Changed title to smooth out dates, add OBS,  and delay ending of seeing snow til at least midday Monday. Comments on these changes on the last page (p6) to this moment.

[MANDA]

Gotta like the 12Z Euro.  Best look so far this season even if cold air might be marginal to start.  If that look or something close to it is real with the closing off upper low where it shows it then it might get interesting.  Especially for the interior.  I'm interested but need to see if these trends persist.   You gotta like the trends this morning / afternoon though.  12Z GEFS not shabby either.  Interested to see 12Z EPS shortly.

[wdrag]

Agree.  Probably not good to buy in, instead disorganized lesser approach that I’d WOC D5 winter wx which has 30-49% chc 3+ only hills I 80 north.  I can’t post it as am remote.  I may not be back til tomorrow morning. It’s early to buy big.  Keep it minimal unless stats suggest otherwise

[RU848789]

CMC is pretty good too and it's nice that, as modeled by both the Euro and CMC, most of the precip falls Sunday evening/overnight into early Monday, so at least indirect sunlight wouldn't be an issue.  

[MJO812]

[Yanksfan]

Meh, I’ll wait till the overnight runs on Friday before I buy into this. Far too often these thread the needle deals goes poof on us although at this early juncture it’s always good to have the CMC/EURO on board. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

Well at least as of right now we have something to look at and track,,,,,,,,,60's and rain does not do it for me in Jan and Feb so give me this look even if it is 4 plus days away and I will take it !

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'll take this as an opening bid.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Well I wasn’t expecting this development 

[qg_omega]

26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Well I wasn’t expecting this development 

Chances of the Euro verifying at this stage is close to zero

[HeadInTheClouds]

Ya mean winter may not be over in January? Go figure. 

[ForestHillWx]

Finally a good old fashioned hp northwest of us in Quebec… 

[SnowGoose69]

Closest comparison to this is probably March 15 99 as far as air mass and storm track, did not have the cards on the table for that til basically go time.  This is about as thread the needle as it gets.

[MJO812]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Closest comparison to this is probably March 15 99 as far as air mass and storm track, did not have the cards on the table for that til basically go time.  This is about as thread the needle as it gets.

Is it thread the needle ? We have the PNA going for us.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Is it thread the needle ? We have the PNA going for us.

Timing wise to have the high/cold air supply present and as far as deepening at the right time probably is

[donsutherland1]

EPS Data:

[Allsnow]

18z eps is north and warmer.

 

congrats NNE 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z eps is north and warmer.

 

congrats NNE 

Snow mean down to an inch.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snow mean down to an inch.

None of the 18z idv look like 12z. Most are congrats NNE 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

None of the 18z idv look like 12z. Most are congrats NNE 

Yep hopefully it's a blip.

Onto 0z

[psv88]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep hopefully it's a blip.

Onto 0z

You know you are again chasing ghosts right? This has New England written all over it, not south Brooklyn 

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

You know you are again chasing ghosts right? This has New England written all over it, not south Brooklyn 

I will chase ghosts then with other forums then 

[WestBabylonWeather]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will chase ghosts then with other forums then 

 

[wishcast_hater]

You know you are again chasing ghosts right? This has New England written all over it, not south Brooklyn 

For Christ sake cant you people leave us alone? It’s like people aren’t happy to see others with some kind of hope so they have to come in and wrap us with a wet blanket. Apparently everyone needs to be negative, no one should have hope and the world is on fire. This forum is so toxic.

Sorry I’m fresh out of surgery and the meds are kicking in.

[Albedoman]

Walt your thoughts on 12z Euro clown map for the LV?  Totals high because of low snow ratios . Cutting in half still gets a warning event however. RT 78/80 would be challenge to drive if the event unfolds

 

[MJO812]

Wow look at h5 on the rgem . This has potential .

[MJO812]

Icon

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon

Barely anything: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012500&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Rjay]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Barely anything: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012500&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Don't be a weenie and troll with an icon snow map lol.  This setup is awful.  Just concentrate on that aspect of it and you'll get more respect. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Don't be a weenie and troll with an icon snow map lol.  This setup is awful.  Just concentrate on that aspect of it and you'll get more respect. 

This setup isn't awful. Yes the first half of the storm is rain but if the transfer happens quick and it's strong then we will flip to snow.

I think some of you are not paying attention to the trend of the PNA ridge out west.