Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

First NYC and then it goes north. Soon snow will be a thing of the past for many areas.

Maybe it will go south, D.C. area has had close to 10 inches this year. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Maybe it will go south, D.C. area has had close to 10 inches this year. 

D.C. area has been snowless for a decade. Yes they had a few minor to moderate events in January but it was also 80 degrees there a coupe of days ago. The 7.8 inches they've had so far this season is also double their normal year to date.
 

Other than the oddball event that will pop up every several years there, they are basically Norfolk now, while NYC becomes them and Boston becomes NYC. It's an ever progressing line and sustained winters will be fewer and far between. 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

33.8 mixed snow and rain continues. 600 msl. Highland mills eastern Orange County. 

34 here with just plain light rain. Had a mixed bag about an hour ago during the heavier precipitation at 125’ of elevation.  1.01” in the Davis so far in precipitation.

[lee59]

27 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

D.C. area has been snowless for a decade. Yes they had a few minor to moderate events in January but it was also 80 degrees there a coupe of days ago.
 

Other than the oddball event that will pop up every several years there, they are basically Norfolk now, while NYC becomes them and Boston becomes NYC. It's an ever progressing line and sustained winters will be fewer and far between. 

It was just a joke to kind of show that it isn't as bad as it seems. For example in the past decade D.C. has had about 120 inches of snow. I agree it is getting milder and if it continues we will see less snow. It doesn't mean we won't ever have bad winters again.

[Snowshack]

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

It was just a joke to kind of show that it isn't as bad as it seems. For example in the past decade D.C. has had about 120 inches of snow. I agree it is getting milder and if it continues we will see less snow. It doesn't mean we won't ever have bad winters again.

3 years out of those 10 years in DC accounted for 60%+ of the total snowfall -- thats probably how it will play out here a well.   Bluewave has illustrated the feast of famine nature of our snowfall many times. 

 

 

[lee59]

26 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

3 years out of those 10 years in DC accounted for 60%+ of the total snowfall -- thats probably how it will play out here a well.   Bluewave has illustrated the feast of famine nature of our snowfall many times. 

 

 

Yes maybe it already is playing out here. The past 5 years at Central Park are 21, 5, 39, 18 and 2.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This happened all year long in 97/98. Repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but heavy rain. 

People who were not old enough in 97/98 are getting the full experience now.

Also, although it may be happening more often, we had perfect storm tracks with rain in the 70s, 80s and 90s outside of 97/98 as well.

Perhaps I am not as worried since I lived through this before, however I am confident we will get into another 1955 - 1969, 2000 - 2018 period again. Problem is, the lull periods tend to be much longer than the snowy periods. I just hope it's not 30 years like 1970 through 1999 lol.

even then as always, it's best to live in the mountains if you love snow.

 

[wdrag]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thanks looks like 4" is the absolute high end there

So far.   It’s icy up there and snow should accumulate by sundown 

[Brasiluvsnow]

37 degrees in New City / Rockland County and yes the rain is coming down

[sussexcountyobs]

After a couple hour lull in precip, light rain has started again. 34.9°

[Bxstormwatcher360]

38/35f here..my dp is ticking down slowly. The radar to our west looks good and the ccb is our curious feature later. I think we do get some snow outta this though,sticking is a whole diff issue obviously.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

33.6° light rain and snow mix, Highland Mills Orange County NY, 600' asl.

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This happened all year long in 97/98. Repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but heavy rain. 

People who were not old enough in 97/98 are getting the full experience now.

Also, although it may be happening more often, we had perfect storm tracks with rain in the 70s, 80s and 90s outside of 97/98 as well.

Perhaps I am not as worried since I lived through this before, however I am confident we will get into another 1955 - 1969, 2000 - 2018 period again. Problem is, the lull periods tend to be much longer than the snowy periods. I just hope it's not 30 years like 1970 through 1999 lol.

I remember 1997 well.

 

But this is just month after month of +5

[Tatamy]

It’s snowing lightly across much of the Poconos.  It looks like you need to be at least 1200’ up to see this and even there only a light coating is observed on non paved surfaces.  Given the type of storm that this is and the moisture it has it’s quite a sad sight.  Even 2000’ only gets you a coating with steady light snow.  If you live near the coast and think you’re getting a raw deal with the lack of snow you’re not the only one.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I remember 1997 well.

 

But this is just month after month of +5

Exactly.
 

Add in month after month of plus 5 vs the new inflated averages of 1991-2020. Take these months we're having against the averages from 1951-1980 and they're plus 7'a and 8's. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Exactly.
 

Add in month after month of plus 5 vs the new inflated averages of 1991-2020. Take these months we're having against the averages from 1951-1980 and they're plus 7'a and 8's. 

How do we know that this will result in less snowfall?

I.e. what if we lose the marginal events, but gain additional snowfall in larger events? What if the storms that hit the MA in the past hit us now?

I do not think there is any definitive evidence that our average annual snowfall will be less. 

We are entering another terrible stretch between great stretches like 55 through 69 and 00 through 18, so it's magnified. Remember CPKs average annual snowfall from 70 through 99 was only around 21 inches.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I never said it would have any effect on snowfall one way or the other. If you're just in it for above average snowfall with above average temperatures we've had several in the 2001-2023 period. 
 

I happen to enjoy winters with sustained snow cover and that's almost non existent along the coast and becoming less frequent even 50 miles north of NYC where I reside. That's my frustration with our new climate. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Alternating between light rain and brief periods of moderate/heavy snow depending on precip intensity. Just a trace of snow on colder surfaces. Temp steady at 34. Hoping for some accumulation later this afternoon and evening. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Bad news folks I’m way upstate New York like 100 miles north of Albany in the mountains and even up here  it’s snowing nice but it ain’t sticking temperatures are just too warm!

 

pathetic 

 

 

[wishcast_hater]

Nothing to talk about here, light rain for most of the day and with more intense bursts we get sleet. Maybe by 8pm things will change. Future radar is clueless as it has big breaks in precipitation and then boom everything magically fills in. What a sadistic hobby we have.


.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.03" of rain so far today. Current temp 39

[sussexcountyobs]

Light rain and 33.8°

Seems and feels like it's going to change over to snow soon. We shall see?

[Picard]

Anyone been up top of High Point mountain today?
There's got to be some noticeable snow/ice accumulations.  I don't think it made it above freezing.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

How do we know that this will result in less snowfall?

I.e. what if we lose the marginal events, but gain additional snowfall in larger events? What if the storms that hit the MA in the past hit us now?

I do not think there is any definitive evidence that our average annual snowfall will be less. 

We are entering another terrible stretch between great stretches like 55 through 69 and 00 through 18, so it's magnified. Remember CPKs average annual snowfall from 70 through 99 was only around 21 inches.

I think there is, I think we’re watching it play out right now. You went thru the 2010s pulling in cold air because the storms were so large. Now there’s no cold air to even pull in.

 

I want to be wrong unlike some of the guys on here like get their jollies pissing on people snow hopes.

We had a marginal climate for snow before. now it’s much much warmer

I mean, it’s really unbelievably warmer. I can’t believe how warm January is now versus (in my mind) just a few years ago. And every year.

 

My gut tells me we’re done for the winter. That one week was probably it. Hoping for a one off. but as you’re cruising through the heart of winter +5 to 10 every day, you are really fucked if you like snow. Forget about sustained ground cover.

Just a mess

[wdrag]

24 minutes ago, Picard said:

Anyone been up top of High Point mountain today?
There's got to be some noticeable snow/ice accumulations.  I don't think it made it above freezing.

about an inch I think from earlier pictures.

Moderate sleet shower lower Wantage 4-415.  I think we're going to stick during the night... not much and way less than ensembles but a little snow is coming, especially this evening ne PA and NW Nj, eventually to translate to I95-NYC- near PHL by morning. 

Lowest of the day right now at 33.3

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

about an inch I think from earlier pictures.

Moderate sleet shower lower Wantage 4-415.  I think we're going to stick during the night... not much and way less than ensembles but a little snow is coming, especially this evening ne PA and NW Nj, eventually to translate to I95-NYC- near PHL by morning. 

Lowest of the day right now at 33.3

Yes. Lowest temp of the day here also. Currently 33.4°

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

How do we know that this will result in less snowfall?

I.e. what if we lose the marginal events, but gain additional snowfall in larger events? What if the storms that hit the MA in the past hit us now?

I do not think there is any definitive evidence that our average annual snowfall will be less. 

We are entering another terrible stretch between great stretches like 55 through 69 and 00 through 18, so it's magnified. Remember CPKs average annual snowfall from 70 through 99 was only around 21 inches.

If it lasts for 30 years trust me, the next "good" period wont be as good to us, we only have to look at the climate projections to see that.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

It’s snowing lightly across much of the Poconos.  It looks like you need to be at least 1200’ up to see this and even there only a light coating is observed on non paved surfaces.  Given the type of storm that this is and the moisture it has it’s quite a sad sight.  Even 2000’ only gets you a coating with steady light snow.  If you live near the coast and think you’re getting a raw deal with the lack of snow you’re not the only one.

it's why elevation is the #1 factor in snowfall regardless of pattern

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

How do we know that this will result in less snowfall?

I.e. what if we lose the marginal events, but gain additional snowfall in larger events? What if the storms that hit the MA in the past hit us now?

I do not think there is any definitive evidence that our average annual snowfall will be less. 

We are entering another terrible stretch between great stretches like 55 through 69 and 00 through 18, so it's magnified. Remember CPKs average annual snowfall from 70 through 99 was only around 21 inches.

It's warmer now...

[HeadInTheClouds]

34 with light snow and a little sleet mixed in. Starting to stick.