Sunday 1/28-midday Monday 29/2024 snowfall and OBS most of the NYC subforum including potential 1/2-2" NYC-LI-heavier toward I84.

[snowman19]

Official forecast from NWS Upton: 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

They probably get 1-3” and toward the end as the cold air comes in and especially if there’s a CCB feature that develops. The lousy airmass and easterly wind problem hurts them too. I just want to get some pattern to develop that gets me meaningfully over the way below average 5” on the season. Even more sucky is that DC has up to double what we have. This is just god awful for mid winter. But if not I’d rather not have false hope and we just torch from here on out. Rather be able to enjoy the outdoors then. 

there will no enjoying anything while it's still raining, it needs to stop raining for a few weeks.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Good for Boston! I’d prefer this cloudy and misty weather over a moderate snowfall event in peak climo…

hell no, sunshine for everyone and keep all the rain on the west coast where it should be this time of year

 

[LoboLeader1]

Expecting a mess here later on tonite in the Berks. Mix bag of ZR & snow changing over to all snow early tomorrow AM. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The surface temperature for the April 2, 2018 storm dropped to 33° and held there. The 1907 storm, for which hourly data is not available, had a low of 35°.

Below is the data for the April 2, 2018 storm:

zero visibility for 3-4 hours?!  wow.... did we get close to blizzard conditions?

Don, what was the snow to liquid ratio in this storm?

[snywx]

14 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

This is a tough one with thermals but if you are around 1000 in elevation you should get more than that I would think. We will find out soon enough. 

 

21 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I'm a few miles south of 84 and I'm expecting a half inch of white rain! I figure if I keep my expectations low I can't be too disappointed

 

25 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Expecting 1-2 in the HV 20 miles north of 84. Elevated areas should do pretty well. 

Yeah 1-2” is a good call for those in the 84 corridor. Anyone over 1000’ should see Atleast advisory level snows. I would think to see those 6”+ amounts you are gonna have to be above 1500’

[wdrag]

NWS 4PM snow forecast that guided their forecast and WWA.  Also the 19z NBM. Click for clarity. 

[wdrag]

MPING: Unless the modeling warms and yields no snow/rain mix down I78 and NYC (maybe even I-195)tomorrow morning, I think mPing is going to be valuable ground truth, but please dont let it preoccupy your day.  I have a granddaughter over so I'll be paying attention again for a while tomorrow morning and again tomorrow night. 

 

Correlation Coefficient on Radar Scope or other apps may be helpful for us inland from I95. 

Banding tomorrow morning per continuing NAM signal and HREF: Wont surprise me to see 1/4-1/2" splot down in an hours time I80 north and coastal CT.  Banding Sunday evening more persistent from ne PA to near the Catskills-Berkshires.  That's when "possibly" the biggest snowfall occurs ne PA-se NYS-CT-MA.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

zero visibility for 3-4 hours?!  wow.... did we get close to blizzard conditions?

Don, what was the snow to liquid ratio in this storm?

No. There was very little wind.

[North and West]

MPING: Unless the modeling warms and yields no snow/rain mix down I78 and NYC (maybe even I-195)tomorrow morning, I think mPing is going to be valuable ground truth, but please dont let it preoccupy your day.  I have a granddaughter over so I'll be paying attention again for a while tomorrow morning and again tomorrow night. 
 
Correlation Coefficient on Radar Scope or other apps may be helpful for us inland from I95. 
Banding tomorrow morning per continuing NAM signal and HREF: Wont surprise me to see 1/4-1/2" splot down in an hours time I80 north and coastal CT.  Banding Sunday evening more persistent from ne PA to near the Catskills-Berkshires.  That's when "possibly" the biggest snowfall occurs ne PA-se NYS-CT-MA.

Enjoy the time with the grandkids!


.

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

This is a tough one with thermals but if you are around 1000 in elevation you should get more than that I would think. We will find out soon enough. 

705 - Borderline. I'll be in Cheshire CT for most of the day though so I'll have to watch it through the security cams. 

[Tatamy]

Looks to be an interesting morning in areas with elevation above 500 - 700 feet near and to the north and west of I78/I287.  Recent HRRR runs are setting up for a surprise dump in those areas.

[ForestHillWx]

I will let you know. We are at 740’ asl; in chester. 10 miles north of 78. 

[donsutherland1]

1/28 0z HREF:

[ForestHillWx]

Heavy rain here; good luck up north!

[snowman19]

36F, heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Upton has dropped the hazardous weather outlook it had up for Rockland County. Expecting all rain here now. 
 

@MJO812 There’s snow, it’s just not reaching the ground. If you look at the radar there’s a strong “bright banding” signature over the area, boundary layer is just too warm. Definitely another 97-98 type of storm

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

36F, heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Upton has dropped the hazardous weather outlook it had up for Rockland County. Expecting all rain here now

I really wish you hated rain as much as you hate snow lol.

If it doesn't rain again for the next 6 months it will be too soon

 

[wdrag]

 Just received a report of snow on Deckertown (CR650 in Sussex County NJ with elevations above 1000 feet) and no acc but temps are falling. Mount Pocono 32 so the transition to wet snow at elevations has started. 34 at HP and Vernon at 530AM. I think much more to come next 6 hours up here. 

[wdrag]

Mixed rain, ice pellets and snow mPing reports sw CT and interior se NYS. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 Just received a report of snow on Deckertown (CR650 in Sussex County NJ with elevations above 1000 feet) and no acc but temps are falling. Mount Pocono 32 so the transition to wet snow at elevations has started. 34 at HP and Vernon at 530AM. I think much more to come next 6 hours up here. 

Thanks Walt, any reports on how much snow has accumulated at Mt Pocono? Are they in line for about 6" total do you think?

[sussexcountyobs]

13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 Just received a report of snow on Deckertown (CR650 in Sussex County NJ with elevations above 1000 feet) and no acc but temps are falling. Mount Pocono 32 so the transition to wet snow at elevations has started. 34 at HP and Vernon at 530AM. I think much more to come next 6 hours up here. 

Vernon here, down to 34.3 at 6am. Looks like it may have a few very wet flakes mixed in. Can't tell for sure with only the driveway light on. 

Edit: 6:12 am Just went out to my truck and there is indeed some wet snow mixing in with the rain.

[wdrag]

Rain-wet snow mix at 640A at 740' elevation. Temps northern SC 33-34F except 31 at the HP Monument. 

[wdrag]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Walt, any reports on how much snow has accumulated at Mt Pocono? Are they in line for about 6" total do you think?

Unsure...follow NWS map attached. Should be snowing Mt Pocono now. 32F.  NWS WPC broad area probs for 1 and 4 attached. Go to PHI home page and  then theirwinter wx page and that will give you probs of various amounts.  

[gravitylover]

34/34/ESE2/RN+  I've had some pellets mixed in but only a few times. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Mainly snow now. Very wet snow. Vehicles getting slushy. 33.8

[Tatamy]

16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Mainly snow now. Very wet snow. Vehicles getting slushy. 33.8

As expected by virtually all of the models snow has been very hard to come by with this event.  Props to the CMC suite for seeing this from the beginning.  The Euro did a good job of picking up the banding signature that set up from SW to NE across my area and over to northern NJ.  Rain here most of the night  with a temp of 37.8.  Temps have been steady here.  0.82” so far.  I have not seen any snow on the traffic cams that I have looked at along I380/I84 in NE PA.

[MJO812]

Beautiful radar but mostly rain for many people. 

You have to go all the way upstate to see snow. Just awful.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

36F, heavy rain in Sloatsburg. Upton has dropped the hazardous weather outlook it had up for Rockland County. Expecting all rain here now. 
 

@MJO812 There’s snow, it’s just not reaching the ground. If you look at the radar there’s a strong “bright banding” signature over the area, boundary layer is just too warm. Definitely another 97-98 type of storm

Mesos were too warm with snow close to the coast. This is mostly rain with some wet snow up to SNE.

[donsutherland1]

Final EPS and NBE Numbers for a largely or wholly cold rain event in New York City and nearby areas. Little or no accumulation is likely there with no accumulation being of a higher probability. Higher elevations across northwest New Jersey into the Catskills should see some snow with accumulations likely at or above 1,000 feet. In the vicinity of Albany into western Massachusetts, higher elevations could pick up 3"-6" of snow.

[the_other_guy]

It’s hard to ignore that this is a storm with good track on 1/28and it’s just raining.

 

This is what many guys predicted would happen in the 2010s.

 

I just think climate is too warm and we turned the corner here now. At least in the New York City area. Going forward snow will be more of a rarity if true