jaxjagman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Okay. I thought they came out every day now. My apologies Mondays and Thursday,no need to apologize 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Anybody have the euro weeklies from today? Didn't see it posted. Yeah, they come out every day now - new thing. They looked maybe a half a day faster at 500 w/ the trough sliding into the eastern half of the country on the 13th. I don't think it will immediately flip cold(very much like when the pattern set-up in early January). Temps "should" begin to slide BN(or at least seasonal) by the 15th. I still wouldn't be surprised w/ some can-kicking, and I also wouldn't be surprised if it got here earlier. The MJO is very slowly coming out of phase 6. On some plots, I think it was out of 6 yesterday....CPC, it was still there. Plots for CPC should update any time. Honestly, if you look at the GEPS ensemble from overnight, it looks basically like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Cosgrove must be smiling.....high amplitude phase 8 is on the table. We have crossed the rubicon and are in phase 7. Most MJO plots are quicker today. I would expect some pretty cold solutions will start showing up just after Feb15. That idea is also supported by LR ext modeling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just reading across other subforums, I see a lot of disappointment that winter has taken a hiatus for the first half of February. LR ext modeling has been barely budged in suggesting the cold comes back around the 14th - give or take 48 hours. Ensembles have been locked-in for weeks. The MJO has certainly led the way on this. The great thing is that modeling has been very accurate with this warm-up. That makes me think they are probably correct about having roughly a 3 week stretch of cold to close out winter. I hear the "we are giving away half of February" talk. For the past three years, we have pretty much lost all of Feb due to Nina climatology and the trough being stuck in the West. The next good thing is that global ensembles have the transition to cold. Sure, there could be some can kicking, but....the cold being depicted to return the 14-15th time frame is not can kicking. Extended LR modeling has barely budged with that timeframe. It is possible it may have shown the 10th at some point, but the 500 pattern has been consistent for some time. It is actually remarkable work by LR ext modeling if it pans out. I suspect the coldest pattern will be Feb20-29th....maybe we can score a leap year storm. I get that climatology starts to fight us, with the exception of one area....big late winter and/or early spring snow storms. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 We have the other subforums right where we want 'em. Man it was depressing from the MA to New England this AM, lol. I can't resist a good train wreck though. But usually when this despair starts and the people who had been advertising a big change get kind of quiet, IMO thats when big changes start to sneak up. Could be wrong, but although I haven't been active on these forums for as long as some, I've been reading for over ten years now and I feel like I can kind of read the room so to speak concerning the emotional rollercoasters that sometimes pop up. This is not to say we are like that. TN Valley seems pretty level headed compared to the New York subforum for example, but it was kind of jarring to go from reading Carver's thoughts earlier this AM to the MA and New England. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 GFS is back to obliterating western NC: @Met1985 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 28 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: GFS is back to obliterating western NC: @Met1985 Met's under that light blue dot, and won't be able to post for a while. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 Some of the soundings even near Eastman are pretty close, but looks like some downslope drying: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 30 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: GFS is back to obliterating western NC: @Met1985 If we can just will that to encompass the whole area. Temps are going to be marginal for Valleys even if it does. Hopefully low Dews and heavy rates will be realized. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Just reading across other subforums, I see a lot of disappointment that winter has taken a hiatus for the first half of February. LR ext modeling has been barely budged in suggesting the cold comes back around the 14th - give or take 48 hours. Ensembles have been locked-in for weeks. The MJO has certainly led the way on this. The great thing is that modeling has been very accurate with this warm-up. That makes me think they are probably correct about having roughly a 3 week stretch of cold to close out winter. I hear the "we are giving away half of February" talk. For the past three years, we have pretty much lost all of Feb due to Nina climatology and the trough being stuck in the West. The next good thing is that global ensembles have the transition to cold. Sure, there could be some can kicking, but....the cold being depicted to return the 14-15th time frame is not can kicking. Extended LR modeling has barely budged with that timeframe. It is possible it may have shown the 10th at some point, but the 500 pattern has been consistent for some time. It is actually remarkable work by LR ext modeling if it pans out. I suspect the coldest pattern will be Feb20-29th....maybe we can score a leap year storm. I get that climatology starts to fight us, with the exception of one area....big late winter and/or early spring snow storms. The Euro Weeklies are weaker with the SE cold for Feb 12-19 averaged out vs the run 3 days ago, which is due to a little can kicking/short delay in the start of the BN. One can see that delay by comparing the EPS daily maps for Feb 11-12 over the last couple of days. Fri’s Jan 26 run: pretty solid signal for BN SE Feb 12-19 Today’s (Jan 29) run: weaker BN signal in SE for Feb 12-19 due to delay Otherwise, the Euro Weeklies are about the same (Feb 19th+) calling for a pretty solid BN signal for 3 weeks into early March. The best opportunity for a Miller A GOM based SE winter storm in the Weeklies still appears to be during the subsequent week, Feb 19-26, though that leans more toward NC/SC/GA (more qpf). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 43 minutes ago, GaWx said: The Euro Weeklies are weaker with the SE cold for Feb 12-19 averaged out vs the run 3 days ago, which is due to a little can kicking/short delay in the start of the BN. One can see that delay by comparing the EPS daily maps for Feb 11-12 over the last couple of days. Fri’s Jan 26 run: pretty solid signal for BN SE Feb 12-19 Today’s (Jan 29) run: weaker BN signal in SE for Feb 12-19 due to delay Otherwise, the Euro Weeklies are about the same (Feb 19th+) calling for a pretty solid BN signal for 3 weeks into early March. The best opportunity for a Miller A GOM based SE winter storm in the Weeklies still appears to be during the subsequent week, Feb 19-26, though that leans more toward NC/SC/GA (more qpf). Pretty good back off looks like. Appears to be maybe showing a semblance of a SW hanging back trough. I don't know if Weekly version has any hanging back with energy in the Southwest like the regular Euro but if so, could be what we're seeing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Pretty good back off looks like. Appears to be maybe showing a semblance of a SW hanging back trough. I don't know if Weekly version has any hanging back with energy in the Southwest like the regular Euro but if so, could be what we're seeing. At H5, the Euro Weeklies mean for Feb 12-19 actually looks surprisingly similar over the US for the two runs with a nice setup. So, it does appear to be just a short delay. However, the -NAO and -AO are slightly weaker. Perhaps that’s helping to reduce the degree of cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: GFS is back to obliterating western NC: @Met1985 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Met's under that light blue dot, and won't be able to post for a while. That's what I'm talking about guys! Had a beautiful couple inches this morning when I came home from work. Stuff was cement. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The Euro LR ext has some crazy good snow means for E TN and much of the forum area, both ensemble and control. 500 pattern is right on time. Temps lag as the trough fills with cold - takes about 72 hours once the trough is in place. If a storm amps, it will likely fill quickly. Ali most identical progression to early Jan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Got this from MA Sub. Not saw much about this Model but, check out that Feb 5 depiction. The 0z SPIRE MODEL fwiw... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Perfect for this area. Quote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Got this from MA Sub. Not saw much about this Model but, check out that Feb 5 depiction. The 0z SPIRE MODEL fwiw... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Perfect for this area. Quote The million dollar question is what is slowing the mjo? How will it be able to advance to the colder phases? I bring up the kicking can scenario because that's all we have to work with currently. Typically niños are backloaded but perhaps this one will not be. I believe it will get cold again, but probably later than most people believe or thought imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 DT (the snowstorm page twitter) seems to believe Tenn valley is still in the game for the feb 4-6 event?? Thoughts?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, CheoahBald1 said: DT (the snowstorm page twitter) seems to believe Tenn valley is still in the game for the feb 4-6 event?? Thoughts? . JMO, but I think he's reaching even calling locations for a snow storm this far in advance. He's good, but I generally don't listen to him for our area (and especially the microclimate known as northeast TN). The biggest problem we will have this side of the apps is cold air. Would be incredibly rare to have cold "enough" air come down through the lakes and spill west of the apps. Cold air damming is a distinct possibility for our friends on the other side of the mountains. I think if this snow storm belongs to anyone, it's probably those guys (NC/VA). 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Thanks for the feedback . I’m actually located in western nc in Graham county (right on the TN line) but the past few gfs runs have had me under a warm nose I guess? I enjoy reading this Tenn valley forum. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: The million dollar question is what is slowing the mjo? How will it be able to advance to the colder phases? I bring up the kicking can scenario because that's all we have to work with currently. Typically niños are backloaded but perhaps this one will not be. I believe it will get cold again, but probably later than most people believe or thought imo Well, those SST'S in that area is the likely cause . However, that area has cooled some and we are seeing convection flaring in 7-8 eq. Pac area. This tells me the MJO will hit P8 and may even slow thereafter and probably traverse 1-2 at low amp or go into COD. Just my wag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 27 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: JMO, but I think he's reaching even calling locations for a snow storm this far in advance. He's good, but I generally don't listen to him for our area (and especially the microclimate known as northeast TN). The biggest problem we will have this side of the apps is cold air. Would be incredibly rare to have cold "enough" air come down through the lakes and spill west of the apps. Cold air damming is a distinct possibility for our friends on the other side of the mountains. I think if this snow storm belongs to anyone, it's probably those guys (NC/VA). Yeah, the Great Valley definitely has a tough time without CAA down this side of Apps. There have been instances of enough cold seepage down the Valley from the NE. However, usually that occurs with heavy precip rates helping bring the cold air down. A big banana HP to our North can get it done ala., the Spires depiction but, generally without alot of cold to pull down you need weak winds, low onset DP and quick uptick in Rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The end of eps looks ok but I imagine the 2m or 850s are still too warm. Hoping that changes like Daniel Boone said with mjo maybe getting to colder phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: The million dollar question is what is slowing the mjo? How will it be able to advance to the colder phases? I bring up the kicking can scenario because that's all we have to work with currently. Typically niños are backloaded but perhaps this one will not be. I believe it will get cold again, but probably later than most people believe or thought imo We have talked about the delay a bunch. Convection over the MC and convection near Darwin is the reason. When it fires, the MJO is headed for 6. Yes, it should move through 8. We are actually out of phase 6 today - fingers crossed that we say out. Modeling busted hugely by stalling it in 6 - it appears for now. The MJO has kept chugging along. Technically, it is in a colder phase now which is phase 7 during the MJO. There is a loop that may(or may not) occur which is the push back on surface temps on the Euro Weeklies. Trends right now are to move the MJO at higher amplitudes into 8, and earlier than prognosticated - this is important...I don't think modeling has responded to that phase 8 trend yet. Last time, modeling didn't catch that until around d10 - the mid Jan cold shot was missed by modeling as modeling seems to wash out MJO signals until inside d10. The intensity of warm wx was also caught late. I think we have also said that if this was similar to January, can kicking would be likely. It is very common for an eastern ridge to break down slowly as it is super stable. The pattern flip during late December was also delay about 5 days. That said, the 500 pattern is right on schedule. But just because we have a trough over the EC doesn't mean cold immediately dumps into it. In fact, I think this forum has been the most conservative in saying the cold would be delayed - Webber called for an early flip as did a couple of other mets. We have consistently said that the cold would not arrive until mid-month. Interestingly, we are going to finish right around seasonal temps for January at TRI. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Itryatgolf70 said: The end of eps looks ok but I imagine the 2m or 850s are still too warm. Hoping that changes like Daniel Boone said with mjo maybe getting to colder phases. Cold won't usually flip instantaneously. That said, cold will be washed out at this range. Could easily be colder than that look. The EPS has had a wicked warm bias at this range all winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Cold won't usually flip instantaneously. That said, cold will be washed out at this range. Could easily be colder than that look. The EPS has had a wicked warm bias at this range all winter. I'm hoping we will have a few opportunities at winter weather here if we get that configuration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 16 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I'm hoping we will have a few opportunities at winter weather here if we get that configuration. I think it repeats the mid-Jan pattern. It is not out of the realm of possibility that these temps will be colder vs the norm. The key is getting a storm to deepen earlier than later in the pattern. Modeling is probably not going to be able to spot that at this range. If I was wanting to possibly find a thorn, it would be the SSW likes to dump cold in Asia as a first choice. If I was going half empty, I would say we get the trough but no source region for cold. I think we will be good though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We have talked about the delay a bunch. Convection over the MC and convection near Darwin is the reason. When it fires, the MJO is headed for 6. Yes, it should move through 8. We are actually out of phase 6 today - fingers crossed that we say out. Modeling busted hugely by stalling it in 6 - it appears for now. The MJO has kept chugging along. Technically, it is in a colder phase now which is phase 7 during the MJO. There is a loop that may(or may not) occur which is the push back on surface temps on the Euro Weeklies. Trends right now are to move the MJO at higher amplitudes into 8, and earlier than prognosticated - this is important...I don't think modeling has responded to that phase 8 trend yet. Last time, modeling didn't catch that until around d10 - the mid Jan cold shot was missed by modeling as modeling seems to wash out MJO signals until inside d10. The intensity of warm wx was also caught late. I think we have also said that if this was similar to January, can kicking would be likely. It is very common for an eastern ridge to break down slowly as it is super stable. The pattern flip during late December was also delay about 5 days. That said, the 500 pattern is right on schedule. But just because we have a trough over the EC doesn't mean cold immediately dumps into it. In fact, I think this forum has been the most conservative in saying the cold would be delayed - Webber called for an early flip as did a couple of other mets. We have consistently said that the cold would not arrive until mid-month. Interestingly, we are going to finish right around seasonal temps for January at TRI. If KTRI had gotten the Cold that was just to it's west, would finish below average for the Month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Daniel Boone said: If KTRI had gotten the Cold that was just to it's west, would finish below average for the Month. Right now we are -0.9. Going to have to hold that during the next three days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I think it repeats the mid-Jan pattern. It is not out of the realm of possibility that these temps will be colder vs the norm. The key is getting a storm to deepen earlier than later in the pattern. Modeling is probably not going to be able to spot that at this range. If I was wanting to possibly find a thorn, it would be the SSW likes to dump cold in Asia as a first choice. If I was going half empty, I would say we get the trough but no source region for cold. I think we will be good though. Right with you in those thoughts man. Yeah, should still be plenty enough cold in Canada this go around. Eastern Canada looks loaded last I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Some of the great winter patterns of E TN are mid-Feb to mid-March. Got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. I am somewhere between hold'em and run! LOL. Anyway, storm track looks like a classic Nino end game. No idea if it verifies, but it could certainly be worse. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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