Itryatgolf70 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS wasn't a can kick(from timeline which has been discussed here) that I could tell. Cosgrove has thought that the cold would return well before the 12th. I think he has adjusted his thinking and is saying President's Day though early March. I will say, I didn't like see the EPS stall that trough out West. The control kept it moving. This is feels like late December deja vu. The conversations are very similar. What we do know is the firing of convection over the MC was strong, and at some point it should be reflected on the CPC MJO plots. I have been super adamant that this warm spell was going to be legit. I would not be surprised at some can kicking as these eastern ridges are TOUGH to eliminate. They are super stable. I am just riding with the ensembles right now. There has been snow and ice in end of Feb early March many times, but at that point, we have unfortunately wasted a whole month if no progress is made with mjo moving forward. That why I'm doubting eric webb and others opinions of a similar progress with mjo that closely resembles 2010. Unless things change in a hurry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Itryatgolf70 said: I wonder which model really has the best idea of the mjo progression or has had the best idea? Larry Cosgrove said yesterday for a return to winter, we want the mjo to progressively move from the warm phases to cold phases with a strong enough coherent structure. I definitely hope it will do that I don't think any of them have been particularly good this winter. They have not handled the Nino rotations well. It is almost like they are pre-programmed to Nina tendencies, and have missed badly due to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I just saw some verification scores, and what should be much to it's embarrassment, the GFS at 500 has been scoring worse than even the JMA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: There has been snow and ice in end of Feb early March many times, but at that point, we have unfortunately wasted a whole month if no progress is made with mjo moving forward. That why I'm doubting eric webb and others opinions of a similar progress with mjo that closely resembles 2010. Unless things change in a hurry lol I just roll with the ensembles at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: I just saw some verification scores, and what should be much to it's embarrassment, the GFS at 500 has been scoring worse than even the JMA. I thought with an upgrade it improved, but ensembles are the way to go at a certain range regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I had the unfortunate honor of taking one-too-many computer programming classes while in college. I had a math class where we had to write calculus programming in basic - gag. I could do fundamental programming, but calculus rarely agreed with me. Fortunately, I had a buddy who was great at calculus, and we handled the programming together. Computer wx models are nothing just programming code. Take some time to think about that. I will say this, some of what we see on modeling looks like infinite loops - meaning the program gets locked onto a trend and cannot move to anything new. We see that in the form of feedback on the NAM at range. We have seen that with recent MJO plots. When it is warm, modeling tends to stay warm. The opposite is also true. Sometimes the change itself is feedback. It seems that problem has been worse this winter. I also think that three years of Nina data has really skewed modeling towards Nina responses. In reality, this is a textbook Nino winter so far. If I hadn't looked at a model and had been blindfolded from all internet data, this feels like a Nino winter - cold, damp, rainy, cloudy, some cold, big snows, grass gets green early(no lie...weird characteristic of Nino winters). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Seems like the models are trending slower today,what was looking like like height rises around the 9th and 10th look to be getting pushed back to more the 11th or 12th or around there,seems like any cool down will be around the 17th now give or take thats just my take right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Seems like the models are trending slower today,what was looking like like height rises around the 9th and 10th look to be getting pushed back to more the 11th or 12th or around there,seems like any cool down will be around the 17th now give or take thats just my take right now Actually the more i look at this map i'm gonna still say mid month still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Actually the more i look at this map i'm gonna still say mid month still I think you are right. Just eyeballing modeling today, there is a slight delay there, maybe 24-36 hours. I think models have been too quick to break down the ridge. Modeling has been off-and-on though for several days re: cold. It may well be that serious cold is about to return to NA, and it's causing models to go haywire in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I think you are right. Just eyeballing modeling today, there is a slight delay there, maybe 24-36 hours. I think models have been too quick to break down the ridge. Modeling has been off-and-on though for several days re: cold. It may well be that serious cold is about to return to NA, and it's causing models to go haywire in the LR. Imo, if it keeps getting delayed, it just may not happen for reasons why I'm not a meteorologist lol. I do agree that maybe not the only way but the most important way for us to get cold is when the mjo gets to the cold phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Excerpt from DT: INCREASING THREAT FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR TENN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FEB 4-5 3:45 PM · Jan 27, 2024 · 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 23 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Imo, if it keeps getting delayed, it just may not happen for reasons why I'm not a meteorologist lol. I do agree that maybe not the only way but the most important way for us to get cold is when the mjo gets to the cold phases. Let's not forget other Drivers can mitigate or alter the typical downstream affects of the MJO and western PAC. We just had a SSW that is already starting to show it's fingerprint. Feb 5-6 looks like a legit threat. Higher elevations as early as tomorrow evening should cash in in this " warm, gloom and doom" Period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 17 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Let's not forget other Drivers can mitigate or alter the typical downstream affects of the MJO and western PAC. We just had a SSW that is already starting to show it's fingerprint. Feb 5-6 looks like a legit threat. Higher elevations as early as tomorrow evening should cash in in this " warm, gloom and doom" Period. If ensembles are the way to go, then that's when i will get on the bandwagon, if you will, for a potential change to colder whenever that is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 19 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: INCREASING THREAT FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR TENN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FEB 4-5 3:45 PM · Jan 27, 2024 · He cant be serious,its going OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: He cant be serious,its going OTS The whole patterm looks nothing more than a meridonal flow into Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I had the unfortunate honor of taking one-too-many computer programming classes while in college. I had a math class where we had to write calculus programming in basic - gag. I could do fundamental programming, but calculus rarely agreed with me. Fortunately, I had a buddy who was great at calculus, and we handled the programming together. Computer wx models are nothing just programming code. Take some time to think about that. I will say this, some of what we see on modeling looks like infinite loops - meaning the program gets locked onto a trend and cannot move to anything new. We see that in the form of feedback on the NAM at range. We have seen that with recent MJO plots. When it is warm, modeling tends to stay warm. The opposite is also true. Sometimes the change itself is feedback. It seems that problem has been worse this winter. I also think that three years of Nina data has really skewed modeling towards Nina responses. In reality, this is a textbook Nino winter so far. If I hadn't looked at a model and had been blindfolded from all internet data, this feels like a Nino winter - cold, damp, rainy, cloudy, some cold, big snows, grass gets green early(no lie...weird characteristic of Nino winters). Man, that is weird about the grass. Was noticing today that mine looks way greener than before the snow. Does all that moisture from the snow and protection from bitter cold with snowpack, help the grass or something? And about the models struggling with all the niña data, the snowstorm we just experienced was modeled as a cutter, similar to the past couple of years until they finally settled on what we got, more or less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: The whole patterm looks nothing more than a meridonal flow into Feb He's obviously buying the Euro Solution. Feb. 5-6 is timeframe he listed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: If ensembles are the way to go, then that's when i will get on the bandwagon, if you will, for a potential change to colder whenever that is lol Without coming across being pompous in any way, I've been in the Meteorology Field for 40 years. I do follow Ensembles more at range but, I also know they're still just Model output and are as good as what goes into them. Carvers covered the Computer aspect very well. I also have alot of experience under my belt and made valid points in that Post. Last Season under the same Pac Pattern as now you would not be getting the cool shot and Mountain Snow nor the several days cooler stretch. More than likely a bulging SER and very mild Temps. The enhanced STJ is something factoring in the equation as well. As far as Pattern Change to dominate Eastern Trough , yeah that looks to be later as most agree on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I don't think any of them have been particularly good this winter. They have not handled the Nino rotations well. It is almost like they are pre-programmed to Nina tendencies, and have missed badly due to that. Think you nailed alot of the Problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Has anyone looked any individual members of the 18z GEFS? The mean really upticked in precip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Lots of lighting tonight . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: He's obviously buying the Euro Solution. Feb. 5-6 is timeframe he listed. I reckon,good luck to him 9-10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Excerpt from DT: INCREASING THREAT FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR TENN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC FEB 4-5 3:45 PM · Jan 27, 2024 · Do what. Thats 216 hours away. Believing anything that far out is fools gold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I had the unfortunate honor of taking one-too-many computer programming classes while in college. I had a math class where we had to write calculus programming in basic - gag. I could do fundamental programming, but calculus rarely agreed with me. Fortunately, I had a buddy who was great at calculus, and we handled the programming together. Computer wx models are nothing just programming code. Take some time to think about that. I will say this, some of what we see on modeling looks like infinite loops - meaning the program gets locked onto a trend and cannot move to anything new. We see that in the form of feedback on the NAM at range. We have seen that with recent MJO plots. When it is warm, modeling tends to stay warm. The opposite is also true. Sometimes the change itself is feedback. It seems that problem has been worse this winter. I also think that three years of Nina data has really skewed modeling towards Nina responses. In reality, this is a textbook Nino winter so far. If I hadn't looked at a model and had been blindfolded from all internet data, this feels like a Nino winter - cold, damp, rainy, cloudy, some cold, big snows, grass gets green early(no lie...weird characteristic of Nino winters). Interesting. I said my grass is like spring green right now. Really weird after all the cold & snow we just had 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Not a bad look. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 I would prefer the 971 to be over Savannah for MBY, but that is good cluster near the SC/ GA coast. Even indication of a leeside/ inverted surface trough over upstate SC. It's such a bizarre touchy set up though. Instead of the giant cut off TPV suppressing things to our latitude with the snow a couple of weeks ago, now its a big cut off ridge in Canada. NAVGEM once again the least suppressed of all models for storm in the Feb 5/6 timeframe. A handful of very interesting looks on the 6z GEFS: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 32 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I would prefer the 971 to be over Savannah for MBY, but that is good cluster near the SC/ GA coast. Even indication of a leeside/ inverted surface trough over upstate SC. It's such a bizarre touchy set up though. Instead of the giant cut off TPV suppressing things to our latitude with the snow a couple of weeks ago, now its a big cut off ridge in Canada. NAVGEM once again the least suppressed of all models for storm in the Feb 5/6 timeframe. A handful of very interesting looks on the 6z GEFS: There is a myriad of solutions, hopefully which ever variation actually happens will include some type of winter fun for the forum area. At least this time, it should be more typical of the forum area and not locked on the ground for ten days! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Do what. Thats 216 hours away. Believing anything that far out is fools gold. Aa far as believing, not that I do but, no different than believing 70 degrees that far out or posting something regarding a mild rainstorm. Are you criticising any of that ? As far as DT, I'm not a fan of him personally ( attitude problem) but, he is still overall a good Meteorologist. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 58 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Aa far as believing, not that I do but, no different than believing 70 degrees that far out or posting something regarding a mild rainstorm. Are you criticising any of that ? As far as DT, I'm not a fan of him personally ( attitude problem) but, he is still overall a good Meteorologist. Meh,lets let it go,i shouldnt have said anything myself . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I would prefer the 971 to be over Savannah for MBY, but that is good cluster near the SC/ GA coast. Even indication of a leeside/ inverted surface trough over upstate SC. It's such a bizarre touchy set up though. Instead of the giant cut off TPV suppressing things to our latitude with the snow a couple of weeks ago, now its a big cut off ridge in Canada. NAVGEM once again the least suppressed of all models for storm in the Feb 5/6 timeframe. A handful of very interesting looks on the 6z GEFS: Definitely a feast or famine setup. The ceiling is astronomically high though! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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