jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Lots more ensembles joined in today for the NH party,just dont like the mean going into the COD,it wouldnt be a game breaker but still 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Lots more ensembles joined in today for the NH party,just dont like the mean going into the COD,it wouldnt be a game breaker but still Eric webb believes the pattern moving forward closely resembles 2010 progression. He tweeted that western hemisphere to Indian Ocean slow moving mjo treck. He tweeted a few hours ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 46 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You mind if I share this in my forum? Sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Sure! Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I still wonder where the MJO will be at,it retracts back into Asia but get enhanced once again,could be where its doing all its things into ph7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I still think what Carver has been saying is close ,the heights the EPS is showing fall into East China and Korea as we get into Feb is a cold sign for us here,sometimes the jet extension can stay in East Asia despite,still some concern where the MJO will be at and where it actually goes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 Best tropical convection has looked in a bit, IMO: Still some pesky convection around Darwin, so the SOI hasn't absolutely tanked. RMMs still trying to loop, but Euro is being more progressive and keeping everything in 7. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 I bet some folks in TRI SWVA and Eastern KY would have liked the overnight Euro too: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I bet some folks in TRI SWVA and Eastern KY would have liked the overnight Euro too: Yeah, the GFS has the same storm, but sends it out to sea. The Euro is a little confusing with low pressure popping up everywhere. Some potential in the time period for sure! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Might be about to hit “go time” for tracking. The MJO is almost out of 6, but did slow down a bit since yesterday. There is still a forecasted loop back into warm phases, but that is beginning to feel like a “Lucy pulls the football” look - meaning the MJO is going to keep progressing (albeit maybe slower) and not stall in warm phases. The MJO plots at CPC this morning are pretty much a “choose your own adventure” bank of options. The good thing is that most of them keep the MJO to the left of the plot which is cooler or cold. I think decent cold is still in the Feb 14 range - give or take 48 hours. There is still an outside chance this gets here a bit earlier (not referencing the cold shot just before that). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 As for the Feb 5 system, energy transfer is an issue on the Euro. The GFS is likely progressive. Decent little window if it holds. If that deepens on the coast that could bring the cold in quicker. Maybe we can steal a storm before the bear cold arrives. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I bet some folks in TRI SWVA and Eastern KY would have liked the overnight Euro too: Looks like a hybrid Miller w some energy transfer verbatim through middle TN. Very good MA look and maybe even North Carolina. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 @Holston_River_Ramblerthat could evolve into something good though. Could easily be a slider if blended with the GFS. Definitely worth watching. Still a ways out there. Good find. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The Euro just had a great pass in what would likely be a nice winter storm here. I refuse to believe that a low dropping from 997 to 991 as it skirts the northern gulf coast from Louisiana over the panhandle of Florida would be precip free here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It gives us a little bit of backside snow. But that was a miller A dream track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Eric Webb noted that the storm as modeled was the same setup as a massive March 1st 1927 event. That was a monster for East Tennessee. 8-12+ inches fell. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Interestingly, the GEFS and GEPS ensembles have the low trekking across the GOM...it just doesn't turn. Timeframe definitely has my attention. Great posts by everyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Look at the Euro and look at the Miller A tracks from Feb 1960. The Euro is slightly further north at the start. Here are some snowfall totals for Feb 13-14th 1960. Memphis 1.1 inches Jackson Tn 3.5 inches Nashville 6 inches. Murfreesboro 8 inches Chattanooga 9.5 inches Cookeville 10 inches Tri-Cities 11 inches Middlesboro Ky 14 inches Williamsburg Ky 15 inches Crossville 15 inches MBY 16.5 inches Norris 16.5 inches Tazewell 17 inches Monteagle 17.5 inches Knoxville 18.3 inches The 18th-19th event that followed it was a widespread 4-8 inch event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It has been in the mid 60s to near 70 across the entire area 3-4 days before that first Miller A on Valentines. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The Euro just had a great pass in what would likely be a nice winter storm here. I refuse to believe that a low dropping from 997 to 991 as it skirts the northern gulf coast from Louisiana over the panhandle of Florida would be precip free here. It's bombogenesis once it hits the gulf stream.Surprised it didnt go OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Winter Storm Warnings up for the Apps.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-280900- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0002.240128T1200Z-240129T1800Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg 255 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 3000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with higher amounts possible on the mountain peaks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee above 3000 feet. * WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds and snow will reduce visibility to less than a quarter mile at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The Euro Weeklies control again today w/ big numbers. Couple of light events during the last weeks of Feb. Most of this falls during two storms in early March. The ensemble was similar to yesterday w/ snow into Tallahassee this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 And this his how you draw up a 30 day map...the groundhog better get some sunglasses for Feb 2 if this is right. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Let’s just go ahead and break Knoxville’s all time seasonal snow amount since we already got a good start on it. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Seems like the MJO keeps getting pushed back each day into the WP,There is still considerable spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I will say this...if the Euro Weeklies had been derived from 12z, I don't think they would have looked nearly as good. It could be a hiccup, but 12z was the first time that global ensembles seem to break from their Weeklies. What does that mean? It means it would have been very tough to see global ensembles move to a trough in the East after d16. This disconnect also happened right after Christmas. Even the Weeklies blinked and then returned to their old, colder forecasts. It took a few days for ensembles to adjust to MJO forecasts. Day10-16...it seems global forecast models struggle w/ cold, and wash it completely out. But there may be reasons for that this time. Again, as for the MJO...it is a mess. Choose your own adventure. What we do know is that right now it has raced across phase 6 which it was not forecast to do. That said, it "should" stall (during the next few days) given satellite and OLR looks. Where it stalls is going to be important. The MJO definitely slowed on this morning's run. Getting most of the way across 6 is a big victory. Let's see if it hits the wall. If it continues to race across 7, we will know the MJO plots were in major error. Big test coming up. Even Cosgrove this evening seems to have been knocked of his spot a bit by the warm, warm run of the 12z GFS suite. Let's hope it was a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I will say this...if the Euro Weeklies had been derived from 12z, I don't think they would have looked nearly as good. It could be a hiccup, but 12z was the first time that global ensembles seem to break from their Weeklies. What does that mean? It means it would have been very tough to see global ensembles move to a trough in the East after d16. This also happened right after Christmas. It took a few days for ensembles to adjust to MJO forecasts. Again, as for the MJO...it is a mess. What we do know is that right now it has raced across phase 6 which it was not forecast to do. That said, it "should" stall given satellite and OLR looks. Where it stalls is going to be important. The MJO definitely slowed on this morning's run. Getting most of the way across 6 is a big victory. Let's see if it hits the wall. Even Cosgrove this evening seems to have been knocked of his spot a bit by the warm, warm run of the 12z GFS suite. Let's hope it was a blip. I'm hoping we don't continue to kick the can down the road, which would lead to the weeklies getting pushed back more and more. I definitely want one more opportunity at a return to winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 JB has a great post on the past ten days of MJO trends. It is truly astounding at how bad the plot has been. I didn't realize it had been that bad. I kind of suspected it, but yikes. I would screenshot a portion of his post, but I think those are his thoughts...and are his to share publicly or not. I don't Twitter often, so maybe he posted those three plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I'm hoping we don't continue to kick the can down the road, which would lead to the weeklies getting pushed back more and more. I definitely want one more opportunity at a return to winter here. The 12z GFS wasn't a can kick(from timeline which has been discussed here) that I could tell. Cosgrove had thought that the cold would return well before the 12th. Earlier operational runs supported that return to cold earlier in the timeline....the 12z operational booted that. I think he has adjusted his thinking and is saying President's Day though early March. I will say, I didn't like see the EPS stall that trough out West. The control kept it moving. This is feels like late December deja vu. The conversations are very similar. What we do know is the firing of convection over the MC was strong, and at some point it should be reflected on the CPC MJO plots. I have been super adamant that this warm spell was going to be legit. I would not be surprised at some can kicking as these eastern ridges are TOUGH to eliminate. They are super stable. I am just riding with the ensembles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: JB has a great post on the past ten days of MJO trends. It is truly astounding at how bad the plot has been. I didn't realize it had been that bad. I kind of suspected it, but yikes. I would screenshot a portion of his post, but I think those are his thoughts...and are his to share publicly or not. I don't Twitter often, so maybe he posted those three plots. I wonder which model really has the best idea of the mjo progression or has had the best idea? Larry Cosgrove said yesterday for a return to winter, we want the mjo to progressively move from the warm phases to cold phases with a strong enough coherent structure. I definitely hope it will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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