February 2024 mid/ long range

[jaxjagman]

I havent looked the last couple days but the final warming is showing around the 3rd seemingly,tried to get to the EPS but its down

[Holston_River_Rambler]

You know there was another year where, according to the RMMs, the MJO did a big circle through 1-6 and then crashed into the COD and kind of flopped around. I just can't quite remember which year it was though...

 

This year:

 

 

Sadly it's not showing up on any of the CPC analogs:

[Carvers Gap]

Winter Wx Advisories are now posted for the Apps.  Sam's Gap appears to be a mess.  Newfound Gap is closed.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
353 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2024

TNZ018-043-045-047-242100-
/O.EXB.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.240224T1500Z-240225T0600Z/
Johnson-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter-
Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva,
Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi,
Limestone Cove, and Hampton
353 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
  above 2500 feet, and 2 to 3 inches above 4000 feet. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Johnson, Southeast Greene, Unicoi and Southeast Carter
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

[Carvers Gap]

This is the second straight weekend of snow showers and flurries for portions of TRI.  And that is remarkable given how warm the weekdays have been!

[dwagner88]

60 and sunny in Chattanooga, 32 and snowing in Wise. That’s a long ways from here but still a huge difference in temperature. 

[jaxjagman]

LOL

[jaxjagman]

Honestly i believe the JMA is more right with the MJO

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro control have a winter storm in the d8-10 range.  Just something to watch.

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

60 and sunny in Chattanooga, 32 and snowing in Wise. That’s a long ways from here but still a huge difference in temperature. 

Wound up with Snow Shower's here. Couple quick heavy ones that created a lt dusting that melted fast. 

[Matthew70]

Looks like winter is over with for the lower elevations.  Now we hope to not have a cold snap to kill the spring growth.  Also appears wet times are ahead for the area. Hopefully any severe is DOA this spring.  

[Carvers Gap]

D10-15 GEFS looks interesting...

 

[Carvers Gap]

Possible changes afoot.  By using the general 4-6 week pattern rule, the current pattern should end during week 1 or 2 of March, and a new pattern should begin.  The last couple of weeks of March do not look warm...could be a mirage, but let's see.  I am completely ditching the MJO at this point.  During spring it often doesn't have as much influence, and it is a very garbled signal.  

[Icy Hot]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Looks like winter is over with for the lower elevations.  Now we hope to not have a cold snap to kill the spring growth.  Also appears wet times are ahead for the area. Hopefully any severe is DOA this spring.  

Maybe not. High of 72 predicted on Wednesday but Snow showers that night. It’s the crazy time of year!

[jaxjagman]

Not sure how much cold there will be.Into early March this will be the fourth SSW major/minor warning this winter,the PV has been a punching bag all winter like Weather mentioned a few days ago.Probably the last chance of winter for us here is going to be maybe into the 2nd week of March like the EPS shows but even what it shows is the 2m's are 2-3C above normal.I think winter is done for us myself here in Mid Tn other than possibly the higher elevations

[jaxjagman]

This is my take what the Euro shows of the pattern upcoming.The next couple days you will see a trough off of Japan this will form a LP that recurves off of Japan,but at the same time you see a height rises that forms into the Sea of Japan and a trough coming into play into Mongolia,then into parts of China,This would be a severe look into the first week of March because troughs into Mongolia/China into that part should mean a -PNA

[jaxjagman]

The next pic would get really interesting in winter time J/F this is NOTHING but a cold look even with a -PNA for most of the LOWER 48 with the exception of the SW, you should see possibly height rises in the SW,but there is no cold,so i really doubt that would happen into March

[jaxjagman]

This could be severe maybe before but maybe not,it is the long range of the Euro so it can change between now and then.But,height rises into Mongolia/China would seem to be a +PNA and not negative several days after ,no clue about the NAO,but i'm still not sure it will get that cold even if a ULL sits above you,i just find it difficult to figure out where the cold is coming from myself,dunno but this would be what it MIGHT look like around the 14th of March give or take a couple days

[PowellVolz]

I love a March surprises but it’s gonna be 70+ for 3 days this week, so we don’t need any surprises now.


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[Stovepipe]

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I love a March surprises but it’s gonna be 70+ for 3 days this week, so we don’t need any surprises now.


.

I've seen enough.  I hereby declare kayaking season.  

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I love a March surprises but it’s gonna be 70+ for 3 days this week, so we don’t need any surprises now.


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Upper 70's Tuesday,its getting close by a couple degrees to being record highs

[Carvers Gap]

Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?).  I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter.  We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!).  We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored.  

Also, JB thinks the PDO is set to flip positive next winter.  I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it.  Anyone have a forecast for it?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Anyone have a forecast for it?

As far as I know the only thing I've seen is the astronomologer guy on X claiming it might flip sooner than his call of 2026. 

Now it looks like he deleted that thread now. Sad. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?).  I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter.  We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!).  We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored.  

Also, JB think the PDO is set to flip positive next winter.  I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it.  Anyone have a forecast for it?

 I was curious and for that reason at TT I just looked at the SSTa progs for the CFS, CANSIPS, and NMME for as far as the models go out (Nov to Jan). Anyone can do this easily and quickly. Whereas they all clearly show La Niña forming, none show anything even remotely suggesting a change to +PDO. If anything, they show a restrengthening of the -PDO with the very warm waters from Japan eastward through most of the Pacific persisting and the waters off our W coast cooling some. 

 

[PowellVolz]

Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?).  I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter.  We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!).  We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored.  
Also, JB think the PDO is set to flip positive next winter.  I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it.  Anyone have a forecast for it?

Seems like a PDO flip would be good for us?


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[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Seems like a PDO flip would be good for us?


.

 

 It would be good for the E US overall, but I’ve seen no evidence whatsoever that the PDO will flip. That’s especially the case with La Niña likely coming. As speculated at another subforum, Bastardi is probably trying to drum up business because he already said a -PDO/La Niña next winter would probably mean a warm one. So, now he seems to be backtracking a bit with this very highly speculative +PDO talk. This isn’t surprising because warm E US winter forecasts don’t work well for business.

[PowellVolz]

For those of you in SE Tennessee….


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid026FgSTbWgugzxTDZZTTin9xX7FfNzW5SoXRqcjdTzMVs5xgng9BfoEwZAr9vgXTt5l&id=100063610086970


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[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 

Seems like a PDO flip would be good for us?


.

 

Yes.  On GaWx's map above(assuming those are examples of both...the positive phase is on the left), the positive phase on the left would favor less trough over the West.    It is technically a Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  Though it is often connectedt to ENSO state - not always.  Because it is a decadal oscillation it can take 10+ years to flip, and it is long over due.  Though, I make not claim to being an expert on this topic.

Her is NASA JPL's PDO page....

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/vital-signs/pacific-decadal-oscillation/#:~:text=During a cool (negative) phase,coastlines of the Northeast Pacific.

Here is NCEI's page....(I like this one better...you will notice some differences between the two pages)

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

I can see why one person on X(reference Holston's earlier post) might say 2027 as that assumes the current cycle began during 2017 which also coincides w/ recent negative La Nina's.  If one looks at the second NCEI site, one will notice lots of good winters correspond to +PDO cycles. We are actually due for it to come up for some air.  It will sometimes turn briefly positive even during a negative cycle just according to NCEI's data.  It doesn't have to be positive for long....even just briefly will do it.   Maybe that is what JB is banking on?  If so, there is some merit to that.  We are in a pretty long stretch, and it should have gone positive this winter, but didn't. Pretty rare for it to stay negative for much longer than it has recently.  This is anomalous negative activity.

 

[Carvers Gap]

West of the Apps, La Nina's aren't terrible...they just have to remain weak.  Moderate or strong La Nina and we torch.  Some great winters have been weak La Nina's, but the there is usually help from the PDO, and we kind of want the PDO out of ENSO sync for that to happen.  

[Carvers Gap]

I will say this, one can make a pretty decent seasonal forecast for this area by using these tools -> ENSO state(nada is not good, but weak Nino or Nina will work), PDO, recent winter trends regarding NAO, QBO vectors(my term), and solar state.  The really, really good winter sequences often have a lot of that in the correct phases, but not all.   Those are pretty much what I use.  I was on a hot streak w/ 5 straight months of DJF forecasts going back to last winter.  I learned all of that from mets and great hobby folks on this forum.  

This February bit the dust for my seasonal ideas, and when one looks at the ENSO state(see my comment above)...it was tough to time the collapse.  But that collapse appears to have driven the switch to warmer temps.  Cosgrove missed on February as well, BUT he called for a quick flip to warm during March as he said analogs showed the Nino would collapse.  He had the right idea, but timing eluded him as well.  Good call though on his part.

Honestly, that was such an intense cold shot as evidenced by the record amount of time deep snow was on the ground in the eastern valley....it is not surprising that we broke towards spring.  That happens a lot.  It happened last winter.  It also happened during 84-85 at TRI.  The eastern trough this winter lasted about 25 days.  Dec 15 - Jan 19.  That is roughly four weeks and fits the 4-6 week pattern cycles that we have seen for many years.  As soon as the last week of Jan warmed on modeling, I should have known the game was up...that was not a ridge rolling through on modeling for late January, but a true pattern change.

I do still hold out hope for a well-timed bowling ball. 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I will say this, one can make a pretty decent seasonal forecast for this area by using these tools -> ENSO state(nada is not good, but weak Nino or Nina will work), PDO, recent winter trends regarding NAO, QBO vectors(my term), and solar state.  The really, really good winter sequences often have a lot of that in the correct phases, but not all.   Those are pretty much what I use.  I was on a hot streak w/ 5 straight months of DJF forecasts going back to last winter.  I learned all of that from mets and great hobby folks on this forum.  

This February bit the dust for my seasonal ideas, and when one looks at the ENSO state(see my comment above)...it was tough to time the collapse.  But that collapse appears to have driven the switch to warmer temps.  Cosgrove missed on February as well, BUT he called for a quick flip to warm during March as he said analogs showed the Nino would collapse.  He had the right idea, but timing eluded him as well.  Good call though on his part.

Honestly, that was such an intense cold shot as evidenced by the record amount of time deep snow was on the ground in the eastern valley....it is not surprising that we broke towards spring.  That happens a lot.  It happened last winter.  It also happened during 84-85 at TRI.  The eastern trough this winter lasted about 25 days.  Dec 15 - Jan 19.  That is roughly four weeks and fits the 4-6 week pattern cycles that we have seen for many years.  As soon as the last week of Jan warmed on modeling, I should have known the game was up...that was not a ridge rolling through on modeling for late January, but a true pattern change.

I do still hold out hope for a well-timed bowling ball. 

Winter is probably over except higher elevations like jaxjagman alluded to. My thoughts are already on next winter lol. Imo, if the niña is central based, or cooler in central pacific, game over for most except the west. If the niña, regardless of strength, is east based or cooler off peru, then we should see episodes of cold. Most niñas are front loaded. It was very surprising to see the -pdo as strong as it was this niño