February 2024 mid/ long range

[jaxjagman]

Some of the models look better,more 1-40.GFS isnt bad in parts of E/TN

[Jed33]

Yeah the GFS has been steadily increasing amounts for E TN, but can it be trusted. It doesn’t have much support at all from the other models.

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Yeah the GFS has been steadily increasing amounts for E TN, but can it be trusted. It doesn’t have much support at all from the other models.

Yeah, looking like we need a 50-100 mile further South Track according to most SRM's. 

[Carvers Gap]

We get the 12z GFS southeast jog, and then we get this....

There will be no weather posts next July from me.  The weather sure looks nice in Pasadena.  Not too bad today here either with the exception of the wind.

[Matthew70]

Once we get pass Saturday the wx looks really good for end of February.  Mid 50s to 60s.  Unreal last few years seems we have one week of winter & that’s it.  Definitely the wx patterns have changed. The environment has changed a lot. Things will be blooming early this year meaning most likely will be killed by a freeze. Ugh.  I already have bushes to cut back again from the damage from week in January.  

[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

We get the 12z GFS southeast jog, and then we get this....

There will be no weather posts next July from me.

One thing is for certain.  BAMA will be mid tier.  OSU & TX should be the teams to beat.  They bought the most players & we’re not even done yet.  Players can transfer after spring practice and after 3 games next season.  At least EA sports should be more realistic. 

[Carvers Gap]

As we begin to make the slow, steady climb towards spring, it is very important to understand that the MJO phases for "what is cold"....they change when we hit March.   We want to stay out of 6-7-8.  Very sharp cold shot showing-up right around the 25th.  So two cold fronts, 17/18th and the 25th.   I follow cold fronts during spring, because if there is going to be mischief...that is when it shows up.

 

[Itryatgolf70]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As we begin to make the slow, steady climb towards spring, it is very important to understand that the MJO phases for "what is cold"....they change when we hit March.   We want to stay out of 6-7-8.  Very sharp cold shot showing-up right around the 25th.  So two cold fronts, 17/18th and the 25th.   I follow cold fronts during spring, because if there is going to be mischief...that is when it shows up.

 

If we see a strong niño or niña moving forward, almost a guarantee it's going to be warm. Next winter will be interesting. I think best case scenario if its east based, which it was in 21-22 winter. Most niñas are front loaded anyways. We seem to default to niñas most winters these days. I would like a neutral winter soon lol

[Matthew70]

Warm with sharp cold fronts usually lead to severe wx.  I can do wo that type of wx.  

[Itryatgolf70]

11 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Warm with sharp cold fronts usually lead to severe wx.  I can do wo that type of wx.  

I think 15-16 was a little colder than this winter bc the pdo was positive then. It made a subtle difference but still big difference. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Warm with sharp cold fronts usually lead to severe wx.  I can do wo that type of wx.  

I think about the time we all think it is spring and are happy with the temps....gonna be some wicked cold temps.  I can see a signal during week 4 which shows that, but during shoulder season, those cold shots can be a mirage.  SSW cold dumps West and then heads eastward.

[Carvers Gap]

Maybe the first 9-10 days of March are warm, but sitting in the middle of week three on modeling (early week 2 of March) is a cold snap.  Have to remember that February is a shortened month.  23 days on a Weeklies run can be fairly accurate - just speaking of longwave patterns.  That fits w/ the MJO rotation above.  This is one of these years where I just think winter is not quite done.   I could easily be wrong.  For those new to the area, March can be good.  It just hasn't been lately.  To me, it kind of equates to early December - it can be good but more often than not it isn't.   The Weeklies have not been super reliable of late, but the progression makes sense.  It is almost like the Feb pattern has been delayed a bit.  And the 30 day map below is with the first 9 days warm....

Now, the NAO has been woefully hard to predict this winter, and it normally is.  It often won't give a lot of lead time when it sets up.  Can we get the elusive double block, and have it hook over the top?  Maybe, but this winter this look has only verified 1 out of 3 times it has been shown at this range(which isn't terrible for week 3-4 modeling).  But that is a winter pattern below.  

I don't think I need to say this but will.  I am fully aware that we are fighting climatology with each, passing day.  However, you just never know.  Kind of have to watch cold snaps between March 7-15th which to me is the furthest we can really say climatology will allow a snowstorm in the valleys.  At some point, we will have a snowy, spring pattern.  

 

[PowellVolz]

I think about the time we all think it is spring and are happy with the temps....gonna be some wicked cold temps.  I can see a signal during week 4 which shows that, but during shoulder season, those cold shots can be a mirage.  SSW cold dumps West and then heads eastward.

April of 16’?


.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Maybe the first 9-10 days of March are warm, but sitting in the middle of week three on modeling (early week 2 of March) is a cold snap.  Have to remember that February is a shortened month.  23 days on a Weeklies run can be fairly accurate - just speaking of longwave patterns.  That fits w/ the MJO rotation above.  This is one of these years where I just think winter is not quite done.   I could easily be wrong.  For those new to the area, March can be good.  It just hasn't been lately.  To me, it kind of equates to early December - it can be good but more often than not it isn't.   The Weeklies have not been super reliable of late, but the progression makes sense.  It is almost like the Feb pattern has been delayed a bit.  And the 30 day map below is with the first 9 days warm....

Now, the NAO has been woefully hard to predict this winter, and it normally is.  It often won't give a lot of lead time when it sets up.  Can we get the elusive double block, and have it hook over the top?  Maybe, but this winter this look has only verified 1 out of 3 times it has been shown at this range(which isn't terrible or week 3-4 modeling).  But that is a winter pattern below.  

I don't think I need to say this but will.  I am full aware that we are fighting climatology with each, passing day.  However, you just never know.  Kind of have to watch cold snaps between March 7-15th which to me is the furthest we can really say climatology will allow a snowstorm in the valleys.  At some point, we will have a snowy, spring pattern.  

 

It wouldn't suprise me if we get a very late season cold snap due to niño collapse. Could be wrong. By then, it's too late for winter weather except in higher elevations. I'm rooting for svr weather in our area by then lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

It wouldn't suprise me if we get a very late season cold snap due to niño collapse. Could be wrong. By then, it's too late for winter weather except in higher elevations. I'm rooting for svr weather in our area by then lol. 

I want no part of severe wx.  Very destructive to people's lives.   I know many follow it, and I find no fault with that.  

[jaxjagman]

IMO the MJO is getting into NA right now and it isnt even close to the WP like some RMM"S show

[jaxjagman]

Plus if you follow the velocity this should be where its at with the map above,for now

[jaxjagman]

If you look at South Korea they are far away of course BUT they have similar weather patterns like we do here in winter to an extentent we rely on blocking,etc.etc.

To get cold in the winter months South Korea relies  on the Urals/Subartic blocking.Plus like we do we want to see a -AO,but to an extent the -AO doesnt have to be as strongly negative there

When it gets cold and as of all those features above,you start to see these wave trains moving through South Korea and the MJO is in phase 2-3.The lenght of the cold is similar to us in Tn.We can get cold in Nov-March but the coldest weather in South Korea is similar to us Jan-Feb,it can have a longer duration and effects and the same should be said in Nov and March shorter lenght stays.

But,its not looking as cold as it was the  past couple days

[jaxjagman]

GEFS looks like a couple days away but by the JMA we already hit the Major

[Matthew70]

Cold springs seem to be the norm anymore for this area.  I agree winter is not done & we will have some cold.  Just hopefully not everything starts blooming then a cold that kills all the blooms comes along.  March is my least fav month.  Plus March lately has produced severe wx I won’t no part of.  I hope to never see it again here but I know that’s not likely.  I believe tornadoes follow certain geographical boundaries.  Like they rotate back to that area every so often.  Well where I live the clock is ticking I know.  We are due for one to come thru here.  Murfreesboro has been spared many years now.  To me it’s like earthquakes.  I consider tornadoes following fault lines though they really are not fault lines.  Eventually earthquakes hit the same areas as will tornadoes.  Sorry for the rambling. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Remember when the GFS was the most SE of models for tonight in to Saturday AM?

The elk remembers:

 

But it was almost 70 in places in east TN yesterday, so not too surprising. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

With regards to the stratosphere stuff here is a trip down memory lane from 2018, when we had a SSW at almost the same time in Feb. (Feb 11)

Different ENSO state, but if anyone wanted to look at some maps from that SSW, I found some cruising around our posts and other subforum posts from Feb 2018. 

MJO from that winter:

Some similarities to what we have seen this winter. 2017-18 was a weak-moderate Nina. Probably a west pac warm pool/ PDO thing. 

 

H5 heights and height tendencies around the third week of Feb 2018. It's an unusual metric, but finding images from 2018 that are still active on Americanwx ain't easy lol:

 

All of Feb 2018 monthly H5 anomaly composite:

Here is what the Euro weeklies started to spit out around Feb 19 for early March:

There is some weaker blocking showing up on the Euro extended control for this March but not until mid-late March:

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

That was a BIG ridge into the Atlantic for Feb,2018,that's like a summer time ridge and not winter time

[nrgjeff]

Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. 
There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. 
If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often. 

[jaxjagman]

I still think it should turn colder as we get into the first week of  March.

There is a ridge building on top of Kazakhstan into the Urals all the long range models show this with basically troughing into Mongolia,Koreas and even down into the East China Sea,that shouldnt be a warm look

[jaxjagman]

I'm not knocking Jeffs map either,it's stamped the 8-15th,it certainly could look like  that at one point

[jaxjagman]

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. 
There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. 
If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often. 

That's actually brutal if you want cold by the Euro this afternoon,looks more severe now into March with a trough trailing it.Plus the Euro mean more members are trying and skip the cold phases

[Carvers Gap]

Decent little leap year anafront on the 18z GFS.  It has been flirting with that for several runs.  The gfs has had some strong cold fronts during the past 4-6 runs of that model.  Reminds me very much of models finding the Jan cold shot.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Decent little leap year anafront on the 18z GFS.  It has been flirting with that for several runs.  The gfs has had some strong cold fronts during the past 4-6 runs of that model.  Reminds me very much of models finding the Jan cold shot.

March can provide ULL that produce snow, which have been the biggest snowstorms every here in my area during March. If we don't have a cold connection, it don't matter at that point. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

March can provide ULL that produce snow, which have been the biggest snowstorms every here in my area during March. If we don't have a cold connection, it don't matter at that point. 

So you are saying that you don't like the cold rain ULL version?  j/k LOL