Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: It rarely fails us....thunder in the mountains. Just a wild rule that is probably more accurate than most weather models. Congratulations to everyone seeing snow. Pics or it didn't happen! LOL. Yeah, pretty good boomers with that line that moved through around 9:30 here. Wind damage as well with Trees downed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ripping half dollars,its freaking crazy..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Snowing officially in Smyrna! Sure is beautiful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ripping https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=brentwood201173a 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: ripping https://g1.ipcamlive.com/player/player.php?alias=brentwood201173a Sure is pretty to see. So peaceful. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That was a nice little storm,some intense snow with flakes over a half dollar and thundersnow,to bad it's already about to end 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 hours ago, jaxjagman said: That was a nice little storm,some intense snow with flakes over a half dollar and thundersnow,to bad it's already about to end Yeah, it was fun while it lasted. Wish I could have heard that thundersnow given it occurred on the west side of town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, *Flash* said: Yeah, it was fun while it lasted. Wish I could have heard that thundersnow given it occurred on the west side of town. Funny how all of the snow was south and west of town while at one time the only winter advisories were for north of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I am liking the 25th as a window to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 For the KY/VA/ TN border....Saturday can't be ruled out if a last minute SE trend takes place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 02/13/24 Valid - 02/21/24 - 03/05/24 Since earlier this month, RMM observations show a westward retreat of the MJO signal over the western Pacific, followed by the resumption of a more canonical eastward propagation where it has recently entered the Western Hemisphere (phase 8). The observed behavior appears to be tied to a fairly strong Rossby wave activity in the global tropics which led to a breakdown of the wave-1 spatial pattern in the upper-level velocity potential anomaly fields during the past week. Looking ahead, RMM forecasts have been consistent in favoring a weakened and incoherent MJO through late February, as models remain nearly unanimous with the signal falling within the unit circle in the next two weeks. However, analysis of several MJO variable forecasts reveal a more coherent MJO perspective, and the thinking is that the disorganizing MJO favored in the RMM forecasts may be more of an undesired effect of RMM methodology. A comparison of RMM indices with and without the 120-day running mean shows a sharp left-to-right shift of values in phase space, where the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) event that peaked this past fall appears to be exerting a dominating influence in the mean. Because this low frequency response is no longer evident in the tropical circulation (namely, in the absence of enhanced lower-level easterlies over the Indian Ocean), the RMM forecasts may be overcorrecting themselves to the right along the RMM 1 axis, where the eastward propagating signals favored in the Western Hemisphere (phases 8 and 1) are actually higher in amplitude than what is being depicted. As a result, this would suggest stronger MJO activity in the outlook, which is supported by upper-level velocity potential anomaly forecasts favoring more of a wave-1 pattern during the next several weeks. Though, it should be noted that even with this RMM biasing, there remains some uncertainty with the evolution of the MJO given a tendency in the model solutions for faster propagation speeds. This is still contributing to high ensemble spread, placing the enhanced envelope at different phases at the longer leads, which is also featured in the upper-level velocity potential forecasts between the ECMWF and GEFS. Regardless of these differences with timing, the large-scale environment is expected to be favorable for tropical cyclogenesis over the southern Indian Ocean, with increasingly less favorable conditions for additional Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation over the South Pacific heading into early March. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The end of the month right now looks more severe than winter.Big ridge is going to sit on top of Japan and head east,it seems possible like the GFS has been showing this is going to be a fairly strong ridge to our NE which in return we would see the heights rise,JMHO 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This morning, the 6z GFS and 0z CMC are picking up a fairly strong cold front around the 24-25th. Looks like a ridge rolls through just prior to that. Let's see if that holds. Decent look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Additionally, the 6z GFS has light snow over TRI Saturday morning (less than an inch of snow). My guess is higher elevations such as the Plateau and Apps see some light accumulations, and MRX has a short discussion about that this morning in their disco. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The MJO appears to be "potentially" getting ready to take the tour of the cold phases. If it does, this is a monumental bust of the CPC MJO plots which were trying to go back into the warm phases without going into cold phases. This has occurred all winter - CPC plots trying to skip either the cold or warm phases. I am not sure if the CPC plots are just representative of modeling bias...IDK. I think that is why we are seeing operational modeling find cold fronts that were not present 3-4 days ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Based on what jax posted, it sounds like the pros are expecting that too. If I'm reading that GTH outlook correctly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z GFS has much more eastern trough yet again this run through 330. A ridge rolls through, but interesting. The GFS would likely pick up on this first. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 BY the GFS winter returns in East Asia,not to the degree the other models shows,but they still show it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: BY the GFS winter returns in East Asia,not to the degree the other models shows,but they still show it. Does that impact the lower 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: Does that impact the lower 48? Yeah, usually. Downstream affect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z Euro has now found the 24-25th cold front. It also has the rain/snow line over TRI for Friday night into Saturday. Would not be surprised to see WWAs posted with that. The GFS has the same trend, but was mainly over SW VA. Operationals have definitely trended colder yet again. No idea if that holds. This is VERY similar to what happened in early January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 You know... this is a couple ticks from a more "significant" flizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: For the KY/VA/ TN border....Saturday can't be ruled out if a last minute SE trend takes place. Systems all year have been trending south and east. Let's see what happens when we need it most. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A short and sweet time lapse for a short and sweet snow event during which it practically rained snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: You know... this is a couple ticks from a more "significant" flizzard. 18z followed South trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, tnweathernut said: Systems all year have been trending south and east. Let's see what happens when we need it most. lol When we need it most...it is gonna head to Akron! LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 41 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: 18z followed South trend. You are just gonna have to look out your back window and see it up the road if that verfies! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: You are just gonna have to look out your back window and see it up the road if that verfies! Yep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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