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February 2024 mid/ long range


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So, the GFS has a pretty major cold outbreak around the 23-27th or so.  It actually looks great right before this, but this is a big time look. NAO, PNA/EPO, undercutting of the western ridge, PV trapped under the couplet highs which are almost hooked over the top, low in the Aleutians.   That is a cold, stormy signal.  Remember how we have noted that modeling has a really hard time modeling the NAO, but when it gets it.....you see this.  I don't know if this is a trend.  For now, it is a two-run trend(12z and 18).  It could end up flipping right back.  But...the operational GFS is pretty renowned for catching trends early.  

Screen_Shot_2024-02-12_at_6.52.25_PM.png

 

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6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, the GFS has a pretty major cold outbreak around the 23-27th or so.  It actually looks great right before this, but this is a big time look. NAO, PNA/EPO, undercutting of the western ridge, PV trapped under the couplet highs which are almost hooked over the top, low in the Aleutians.   That is a cold, stormy signal.  Remember how we have noted that modeling has a really hard time modeling the NAO, but when it gets it.....you see this.  I don't know if this is a trend.  For now, it is a two-run trend(12z and 18).  It could end up flipping right back.  But...the operational GFS is pretty renowned for catching trends early.  

Screen_Shot_2024-02-12_at_6.52.25_PM.png

 

This look makes sense if we get a SSW and get things lined up! 

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4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

This look makes sense if we get a SSW and get things lined up! 

And this current SSW should show up around early March.  We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now,  but maybe went to Asia.  It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event.  Tough to know.  I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though.  Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show.

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29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And this current SSW should show up around early March.  We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now,  but maybe went to Asia.  It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event.  Tough to know.  I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though.  Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show.

Yeah, the MJO is the problem; where it's going to be. Other than that I'd be pretty gung ho. If the MJO is low amp during warm phases we should still be alright if that Blocking and EPO Ridge sets up imo. 

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3 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

What’s your current temp?

36. I don't imagine this will last long but we've secured a decent coating under some pretty strong returns. This is the wettest, slushiest snow I can remember. Instantly melts on exposed skin and funnels down fast. If you ever wanted to take a shower in snow, this is your best bet. 

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