February 2024 mid/ long range

[weathertree4u2]

GFS was an epic run for NC! 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS wasn't too shabby for E TN and NE TN.  Good to see that storm still on modeling.   There is a chance that could be a good storm for the southern half of the forum area.  Blocking should be in full effect by that time.  

[Daniel Boone]

53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS wasn't too shabby for E TN and NE TN.  Good to see that storm still on modeling.   There is a chance that could be a good storm for the southern half of the forum area.  Blocking should be in full effect by that time.  

Suppression is more the worry for us in the upper South. However, if a similar setup occurs like strong blocking year's, ala., 1960 the entire area should do well by the time all is said and done. Of course, there was 1973. Deep SE Monster while our area received 1-3" deals. 

[weathertree4u2]

39 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Suppression is more the worry for us in the upper South. However, if a similar setup occurs like strong blocking year's, ala., 1960 the entire area should do well by the time all is said and done. Of course, there was 1973. Deep SE Monster while our area received 1-3" deals. 

Well, all in all, not really any need of looking at the finer details this far out 

[Carvers Gap]

Significant warming trend after the 20th which was not expected...is being shown since 0z last night.  Could this be an error such as we saw in January?  Maybe.  The MJO is set to transit the cold phases and modeling may be well behind in terms of trends - I suspect this.  That said(verbatim) what is being shown on modeling this afternoon is the last gasp of winter.  Let's hope it is wrong.

[Carvers Gap]

BN temps are still being shown, but source regions are too warm for anything other than a perfectly placed storm and cold rain.  

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty miserable pattern - BN temps but not really cold enough for snow.  That could change.  I have been watching the trend since yesterday evening.  The NAO is still there , but we are highly likely losing the Pacific.  The only good thing(if you can call it that) is that the MJO and modeling don't jive.  If global modeling is in error or the MJO is in error for CPC (one of them is wrong I think), then we are about to see some changes in modeling for the much warmer or the much colder - not a lot of space for a happy medium.    The pattern is still going to change.  That is not really the issue.  The problem is that source regions are just hot garbage.  And in February (especially late), source regions are important.  As of now, I think our chances for more snow are dropping rapidly after the 25th.  Prob going to have to score before then or hit a bowling ball late.

[Carvers Gap]

Again, something is probably in error...either the CPC MJO plots or recent trends in modeling.  My money is on colder solutions.  It could be we have a ridge rolling through the northern Plains w/ cold right behind it in the d10-15....can't tell at the moment.

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Again, something is probably in error...either the CPC MJO plots or recent trends in modeling.  My money is on colder solutions.  It could be we have a ridge rolling through the northern Plains w/ cold right behind it in the d10-15....can't tell at the moment.

I'm glad we got an event in January otherwise we probably would have been shut out lol. Kinda surprised that February is going to be warmer than normal considering most niños are backloaded I thought 

[Itryatgolf70]

If the mjo still isn't moving, that would explain the not so cold pattern advertised. Strong niños are difficult to get winter weather but can and have happened. 

[PowellVolz]

12z GFS wasn't too shabby for E TN and NE TN.  Good to see that storm still on modeling.   There is a chance that could be a good storm for the southern half of the forum area.  Blocking should be in full effect by that time.  

.

[John1122]

Looks like the Pacific isn't going to allow us to return to winter.  The GFS pretty much says the firehose stays on out west. When you see most of California getting flooded and 16 day snowfall totals approaching 200 inches in the Sierra, we're not likely to have much in the way of winter weather.  Oh well, at least we got a great 10 days or so this year, that's better than last year.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Now John you know as well as I do that we have to get the trees budding out before the late season cold comes. 

[*Flash*]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

Looks like the Pacific isn't going to allow us to return to winter.  The GFS pretty much says the firehose stays on out west. When you see most of California getting flooded and 16 day snowfall totals approaching 200 inches in the Sierra, we're not likely to have much in the way of winter weather.  Oh well, at least we got a great 10 days or so this year, that's better than last year.

Yeah, the GFS hasn’t been trending well this week. Hopefully, there is some  error involved as Carver pointed out. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But hey, for those worried about the ongoing drought, at least we get to taste the atmospheric river that has been slamming CA:

That water vapor brings back fond memories. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't know, I'm kind of in a delayed, but not denied state of mind (á la Carver I think)  when it comes to this epic pattern some folks in the MA and on southernwx have been honking about. 

I still think the "Whirlpool of Death" we've been stuck in, in phase 7 of the MJO, is throwing long range modeling for a loop. 

 

If I had to draw an image up today of how I might predict the MJO RMM plots to full out until the end of March, it would look like this:

Blue is February and red is March. 

 

 

 

 

If I had to cite any evidence, I would use the 1 and 2 week verification of the GFS

one week:

 

two week:

 

Models have consistently tried to kill off the wave (as other have often noted), but it has REALLY gotten bogged down in the western Pac this time. 

The other wild card is the SSW. Last time we had one in mid Feb it just made for an absolutely brutal spring. Late season freezes, but never cold enough for snow. That was a moderate La Nina though, so I'll withhold judgment about how this constructively or destructively interferes with the pattern until mid March. 

If all else fails we have the Raindancewx model. Once again, despite his abrasive demeanor, he has done a better job than many of the other long range folks, at least in the Americanwx El Nino thread. He's calling for a repeat of our ("fluky" as he called it) Jan snow around March 1 and then a cold and stormy March, a combo of 73, 83, and 98. Specifically he used the March 1983 snow in the south, but offset a couple of hundred miles NW, which puts the southern Apps and east TN in the crosshairs. It also looks like there was one in March 1998, but I'm going to have to play around with old radar data to make sure it is the one I'm thinking about. 

Eventually these Pac jet extensions have to end or at least let up, right? I remember several people (grit/ webb/ 40/70) were speculating this one might not be as bad as the one in Dec, but heck, I think this one has ended up worse. 

 

[weathertree4u2]

22 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Kinda curious how the pattern flip could bust after great consistency from the Euro Weeklies. I haven’t checked them out in several days but I imagine they’ll adjust at some point?

Yea, it's like the Titans, always some obscure little considered reasons for failure. I am real close to being on team spring at this point.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@John1122 whatchya got for March 20 - 25 1998? 

[Carvers Gap]

I had a longer post, but here is the bottom line.  The pattern flip is still there.  The cold to fill the eastern trough is largely absent on the GFS easily in the pattern change.  
 

This change is eerily similar to late December.  500 flipped but temps took some time to adjust downward.  It wasn’t until mid Jan that the pattern matured.  Also, modeling at the time completely missed that last cold shot embedded in the pattern, and then missed the warmup.   I think that MJO makes a full transit for the colder phases of those plots.  I doubt modeling has accounted for that yet.  I do think a warmup is embedded now in that pattern change, and that reflects the confusion in modeling that we have seen for a few days.  
 

Once the MJO transits 8–1-2-3, winter is over for the valleys most likely.  I think the West is in for a very cold end to their winter in late March as the SSW is set to clock them.  

[Carvers Gap]

I should add the NAO will likely drive the pattern for the 2-3 weeks beginning around Feb 14...complete with hooking into the SER for a short time after the 20th.   But right before the NAO exits is when I expect it to be the most cold.  That is prob late Feb or early March.  Be thankful for the NAO, if it wasn’t there....it would be 70+ each day.

The biggest issue is that our source regions are very warm thanks to the MJO driven sauna.  Remember that modeling erroneously had the cold continuing through the warm phases. It is possibly making the same mistake now by perpetuating warmth during cold phases.

[Icy Hot]

This morning’s main takeaway- When trying to determine weather past 10 days, one could throw a dart on a board and be just as accurate as using all the current tools that are available. There are just too many variables involved that we have absolutely no control over.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We had one single variable we could control—the elk. But some godless blaspheming heatherns in Coalfied ran it off. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z GFS at hour 190ish looks beautiful. I’ll take  that look even if it ends suppressed later in this run. 

[Carvers Gap]

Actually, LR ext modeling has been exceptional this winter.  4-6 week modeling is going to miss at times.  We still don't know yet if it has missed for the 14th to the 7th.  Sure looks like it is set to miss for at least part of that time frame, and that happens in this hobby.  What we do know is that it really doesn't get cold during phases 4-6 very often during winter, and we have just been reminded of that.  Modeling has also been struggling mightily w/ the MJO.  Here are this morning's updated extended plots.  One is warm and one is cold.  Now, those are derived from yesterday's runs.  If the Euro is correct, winter is over.  If the GMON is correct, winter is still breathing.  Now, the GFS suite was really the first to see the trek into the warm phases.  The Euro has tended to go COD this winter(over and over again), and has been in error each time.

The CFS MJO from today looks decent...beware of solutions which go into the COD as that has been an error all winter.  To me, this makes more sense.

I am about 50/50 that winter is over with the exception of a well-placed, bowling ball.  There are a wide range of MJO solutions right now, but they tend to lean towards either a fast trek through the cold phases or not at all.   

If forced to make a choice, what do I think?  I tend to think cold is still on the table.  Why?  The -NAO.  Modeling will be very, very slow to trend towards the consequences of that block at our latitude.  As evidence, modeling was very late in recognizing the details of the mid Jan cold outbreak which was NAO driven if I remember correctly.  I tend to think we see the NAO try to hook into the SER, and that is what is driving modeling nuts!  It is what is after that which I am interested in.  After that, could be a very significant cold shot.  This is almost exactly a repeat of the pattern in January - even the comments in our forum are nearly identical to that lead-up.  When/if the NAO matures, it could well send the mother load, and modeling will be late in seeing that.  So, it is very wise to temper expectations, but I would hesitate in completely throwing out winter completely.  Winter may well be over, but a late Feb/early March NAO is formidable(and VERY difficult to predict) and I highly doubt that is worked out yet. This is probably, as Holston points out, a situation where delayed is more likely than denied.  I think the map below is a strong possibility. Crap Pacific, but the Atlantic tries to works some magic just after the NAO hooks into the SER.  

Beware of the big red ball over Davis Straits.............if real, it is going to have a say.

And a very decent look on the 12z GFS mid-month to boot.

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

This is why we have to be careful to write-off winter - me included.  If the 12z CMC is even remotely correct, the Euro MJO plots are in error.  Now, I think it warms up right after this, and then gets cold again after that.  It is that subsequent warm-up that modeling whiffed on.  A detail like that will get washed out at range on an extended map.  The 12z GFS has us in the 20s for the timeframe shown below.  The CMC does have a cold bias, but it will often nail a cold shot at this range.  It got the mid-January cold shot.

 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z GFS at hour 190ish looks beautiful. I’ll take  that look even if it ends suppressed later in this run. 

Been a pretty consistent look during that time frame.  A strong cold front driving this far south during February is likely going to get a reaction.

Cosgrove has a great post today about all of that.

[Carvers Gap]

This is the run-to-run temperature change for the GFS...and this is just roughly 9 days out.   To me, this implies very cold air is about to enter the pattern when models swing like this.  That is about as wild as it gets from run-to-run.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS at 342 is a great illustration of one possibility of what happens just after the NAO tries to hook into the SER.  Impressive stuff.

[Carvers Gap]

That is pretty impressive, and this is how Atlantic blocking "could" help.  The run to run departures right now are impressive to say the least.  This is the 500 pattern from 12z.  The NAO basically forces the PNA to pop by driving a piece of the TPV directly into the Lakes.  That puts the boundary for winter storms over the TN and Ohio Valleys.   Anyone remember what this looks like?  Hint: don't look back too far.  And yes, the sound is muted....!!!

 

[Carvers Gap]

And if that get trapped under that block, it may well just not move.