Save the itchy algae! Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I’m surprised no one has commented on the 00z gfs. That’s quite a storm signal around that 18th~ish time frame, keeps popping up!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It went absolutely nuclear that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 21 inches imby. Everyone does okay 40 and north. That's actually 1 of 2 for some areas in the western forum. They get 4-8 inches a few days before it on the back side of a low. Areas just west of Clarksville also get 20 inch totals. 24 hour snowfall 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 From 264-270 that run, 8 inches of snow falls imby. Not to be outdone, from 270-276 12 inches falls. The wild thing, temps that follow it are similar to what we had in January, highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s and lows between -3 and 10ish are widespread. I'd love to see such an event come to pass, in 1960 the first big storm in February was a brute with similar totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, John1122 said: 21 inches imby. Everyone does okay 40 and north. That's actually 1 of 2 for some areas in the western forum. They get 4-8 inches a few days before it on the back side of a low. Areas just west of Clarksville also get 20 inch totals. 24 hour snowfall I don't know what maps Pivotal weather shows, but the kuchera ratio is a bit lower on totals. The southern edge of precip has some sleet and freezing rain mixed in in eastern areas. Seems there is a warm layer around 700mb on the 0z run. Pretty weird, as it is a pretty stout cold elsewhere. Interestingly enough, the 06z GFS has a better low placement, but weaker cold air. That said, still way too far out to worry about the finer details. We now have a couple of runs showing a signal. The Euro and Canadian should be in range tonight. Curious to see if they support this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, John1122 said: From 264-270 that run, 8 inches of snow falls imby. Not to be outdone, from 270-276 12 inches falls. The wild thing, temps that follow it are similar to what we had in January, highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s and lows between -3 and 10ish are widespread. I'd love to see such an event come to pass, in 1960 the first big storm in February was a brute with similar totals. February and March 1960 had a few good size snowfalls in middle TN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Here's a very good research/study of February and March 1960 covering the Southern Appalachian Region. Click on Visit Site as it's in PDF Format. https://images.app.goo.gl/yVE87S6UhpbiYWUe6 That was a fascinating article but left me wondering why they didn’t go further in their study to answer their own unanswered questions about teleconnections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, Icy Hot said: That was a fascinating article but left me wondering why they didn’t go further in their study to answer their own unanswered questions about teleconnections. Yeah true. It left me mulling over where the MJO may have been during that period. Charts from then show the 500 mb structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12z GFS is set to bring the mother load on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1054 hp sitting on top of a big storm in the SE. What could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The 12z GFS has a full on blizzard for portions of the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GFS is set to bring the mother load on this run. Seems like it went poof for some reason - good news is that the storm signal in that time frame remains - details this far out are going to be murky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, weathertree4u2 said: Seems like it went poof for some reason - good news is that the storm signal in that time frame remains - details this far out are going to be murky What went poof? Not following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Carvers Gap said: What went poof? Not following. Went poof, compared to the overnight run, it went poof for middle TN any way, depends where one is located I suppose 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 That is a pretty brutal cold outbreak following that storm. So, seems to me that modeling is "trying" to form a from on a polar/arctic boundary. That makes sense. That doesn't guarantee a storm, but that is a plausible solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: Went poof, compared to the overnight run, it went poof for middle TN any way, depends where one is located I suppose Ah, yeah. I don't even look at details at this range. I just want a storm to our southeast from this far out, and cold coming in. If we can get a storm on the front edge of that cold air mass, then someone in the forum area is likely in business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The 12z CMC is just ridiculously cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I would say the 17th - 20th period is definitely one to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z CMC is just ridiculously cold. that looks to be another shot of cold air building in Canada on the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 16 minutes ago, BNAwx said: I would say the 17th - 20th period is definitely one to watch. Yeah, looks prime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 29 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: that looks to be another shot of cold air building in Canada on the GFS I think this is going to come in waves. Spring will fight back in between cold shots....but good looking pattern coming together. As long as we have the Pacific, I think we are good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Carvers Gap said: I think this is going to come in waves. Spring will fight back in between cold shots....but good looking pattern coming together. As long as we have the Pacific, I think we are good. Could lead to a active severe weather season on into Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 LOL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 50 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: Could lead to a active severe weather season on into Spring Possibly. I rule out very few things when it comes to weather. A cold pattern tends to squash severe season as Jax alluded to a few pages ago. A warm spring is what is exponentially dangerous. When this potentially cold pattern breaks, I think the warm that follows could be treacherous in that regard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It looked like the Euro would've delivered the goods had it went 24 more hours. A long way to go with this one but fingers crossed we can get another event before winter ends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, weathertree4u2 said: Could lead to a active severe weather season on into Spring This looks like a persistent NINO into spring possible early summer,so we in general would see a more early spring than later severe threat,dont mean it can't happen,but the odds of it are reduced 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GEPS shows the same thing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It still looks like about 5 days out from the pattern flipping. Like early January, I think we will see some cool air masses roll through in waves, and then a colder air mass drop into the pattern around the 20th. The 6z GFS has the bigger storm back around that time as well. At 12 days out, I am not sweating the details. But on this run, we would have been sweating as the cold was a half day behind the storm. I do think between the 13th and 20th, we will see short warm-ups between cold shots. That is common for late winter and early spring, and I expect that to be a commonality throughout most of the timeframe from Jan13-March7. The cold (on the weeklies) lasts well into March. I don't know if I buy that, but we'll see. Nino springs can be quite cold IF Nino hangs on that long(which I doubt it does). If La Nina takes over quickly(which it will prob be in transition), May could be very hot. Nina summers lately have been wicked hot(say it like you are from Boston). I don't look forward to those - drought and heat. Hopefully, this Nina stays weak. If it does, next winter could be good. Regardless, I do expect extended summer to last well into early October. If it goes moderate strong to strong....gonna be throwing a heater. Yes, I am throwing some baseball themed references in there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It "appears" that modeling(reference CPC MJO) has settled on passing through the colder phases of the MJO 8-1-2-3. That should roughly coincides w/ Feb 14-March7. We will see if the MJO loops back into colder phases after that. My guess is that modeling is missing a pass through warmer phases after March 7th...but for now, LR ext modeling is fairly adamant of a 4-6 week cold shot. I tend to think 3 to be on the safe side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Carvers Gap said: It "appears" that modeling has settled on passing through the colder phases of the MJO 8-1-2-3. That should roughly coincide w/ Feb 14-March7. We will see if the MJO loops back into colder phases after that. My guess is that modeling is missing a pass through warmer phases after March 7th...but for now, LR ext modeling is fairly adamant of a 4-6 week cold shot. I tend to think 3 to be on the safe side. I think ur spot on buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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